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BackDatafolha research shows technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais
Datafolha research shows technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais
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G11 hour agoPolitics2 min readBrazilView original

Datafolha research shows technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais

squidFlavio Bolsonarodatafolha

Quick Look

  • Datafolha research released on Saturday, October 3, 2026 shows Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) technically tied with 44% of valid votes each in Minas Gerais, on the eve of the first round of the presidential elections.
  • The margin of error is two percentage points.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Datafolha research released on the eve of the first round of the 2026 presidential elections shows a scenario of a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais, a state with great influence on the national result.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro in their last campaign acts, on October 3, 2026. — Photo: Brian Snyder and Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters

Datafolha research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the presidency is going among the electorate of Minas Gerais. The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are numerically tied.

Stimulated search - Valid votes

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 44%

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 44%

Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3%

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 3%

Renan Santos (Mission): 3%

Romeu Zema (New): 3%

Clariana Barão (DC): 0%

Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%

Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%

Samara Martins (UP): 0%

Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%

Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%

Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0%

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

2,003 voters aged 16 or over were interviewed between October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The research was contracted by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo and registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-07919/2026.

Total votes

See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters. Below, the stimulated poll, in which the names of the candidates are shown to voters:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 41% (was 42% on October 2)

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 41% (was 36%)

Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3% (was 3%)

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 3% (was 4%)

Renan Santos (Mission): 3% (was 3%)

Romeu Zema (New): 2% (was 4%)

Clariana Barão (DC): 0% (was 0%)

Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)

Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0% (was 0%)

Samara Martins (UP): 0% (was 0%)

Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)

Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0% (was 0%)

Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0% (was 0%)

Blank/null/none: 3% (was 3%)

Undecided: 3% (was 4%)

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • A second round will be necessary in Minas Gerais if no candidate reaches 50% of the valid votes

    Very likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • How will the draw in Minas Gerais affect the national result?
  • What will be the behavior of undecided voters?
  • Has there been a significant change in voting intentions since the previous survey?

Related Topics

squid
PeopleLuiz Inácio Lula da SilvaFlavio Bolsonaro
OrganizationsDatafolhaGlobeFolha de S.PauloSuperior Electoral Court (TSE)
PlacesMinas GeraisBrazil
TopicsFlavio BolsonarodatafolhaMinas Geraiselection 2026valid votesglobe
This article was originally published by G1.

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