The first round campaign comes to an end with Lula (PT) holding a technical draw, but pressured by the difficulty of expanding his electorate, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is experiencing his best moment, reaching the ballot box with an upward curve of voting intentions.
The last Datafolha survey before the vote once again showed signs of stagnation in the president's performance, which indicates that the fruits of the measures announced by the government were more modest than the PT campaign would have liked.
Flávio's threat to Lula's candidacy reaches its most acute point, with the Bolsonarist surfing a wave driven mainly by the middle class, voters from the Southeast, men and evangelicals.
Key Points
Lula's ceiling remains lower than in 2022 in segments linked to PTism.
Flávio is experiencing the strongest wave of the campaign, advancing consistently among men, evangelicals and Bolsonarists in the last three polls.
A technical tie with a considerable share of undecided voters still keeps the race open.
Lula among young people
46% in 2026
53% in 2022 Flávio in the 1st round
44% among men
35% among women Undecided - Spontaneous
15% on low income
14% among women Don't know the number
12% of total voters
53% of Caiado voters
Lula's lowered ceiling
After experiencing an increase in support from low-income voters in the last survey, Lula once again parked himself in this segment. The group has been the backbone of PTism for the last two decades, lending the president a generous basket of votes to widen his gap over his opponents or compensate for negative results in other areas.
One of the main obstacles to Lula's campaign in this election was the difficulty of repeating, in some strategic segments, numbers that guaranteed the PT member the majority of votes in the last election.
Among voters with an income of up to two minimum wages, Lula has a large advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro (50% to 32%), but the PT member still appears seven points below the numbers he had in this group in the last Datafolha survey in 2022.
The president's deficit is the same among the younger voters (16 to 24 years old), who gave majority support to his candidacy four years ago.
Lula managed to regain momentum in the Northeast and reached a level close to the result he had in 2022. On the other hand, in the populous states of the Southeast, the president has six points less than in the last campaign.
Flávio Bolsonaro's sprint
In about ten days, Flávio made consistent progress in practically all the groups that Bolsonarism considers most sensitive. The numbers show a consistent movement of support accumulation in these segments, and there have not yet been signs that this wave is about to break.
Considering the last three polls of the first round, Flávio rose from 39% to 44% among men, an electorate that tends to unbalance the game for Bolsonarism.
In the Southeast, the increase was also five points, from 37% to 42%.
In the middle income range, the jump was from 40% to 47%.
Among evangelicals, Flávio went from 47% to 55% in the three readings. The hypothesis is that the Nossa Senhora case may have caused a rebound effect, strengthening the relationship between the group and the senator.
The polls also captured two signs of consolidation of the electorate around Flávio. The first was the increase in voting intentions among voters who declare themselves Bolsonaro supporters, from 80% to 86%. The second is the increase in the number of supporters who know the candidate's number (from 79% to 91%) in ten days, a traditional mark of voter commitment.
Why the scenario can still change
Behind the technical tie between Lula and Flávio, the survey still shows a stock of indecision, which could still affect the result in the coming hours.
In spontaneous research, when the interviewee does not see a list of candidates, 11% still cannot say who they are going to vote for. Furthermore, 13% of voters say that their vote could change by Sunday, with volatility still in the range of 40% among those who declare support for Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Augusto Cury (Avante) and Renan Santos (Missão).
