Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets with US President Trump in Washington. Scholars said that the United States and China need to manage their differences on Taiwan Strait issues in order to avoid escalating conflicts. It is a misjudgment to interpret Taiwan as a bargaining chip in the "grand deal" between the United States and China. It will not happen this time and will not happen in the future.
The Institute of National Policy held a symposium on "The Second Sichuan-Xi Meeting and the U.S.-China Game" at the Chang Wing Fat International Conference Center this morning. Many experts and scholars attended the symposium.
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Zhang Wuyue, chief consultant of Tamkang University's Cross-Strait Relations Research Center, said at the meeting that Trump personally received Xi Jinping, which showed Trump's personal behavior. Trump likes to skillfully link his friendly attitude with leaders of other countries to national interests. This can be regarded as a characteristic of Trump's personal behavior.
According to Xinhua News Agency's press release after the talks on the 25th, Xi Jinping emphasized during the talks, "China's position on safeguarding national unity and territorial integrity is very clear. We hope that the United States will adhere to the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence, handle the Taiwan issue prudently, and lay a solid foundation for China-U.S. strategic cooperation and the development of bilateral relations."
Zhang Wuyue emphasized that from Beijing's perspective, the purpose of discussing the Taiwan issue is to control differences and risks between the United States and China and avoid escalating bilateral conflicts between the United States and China. There is absolutely no possibility that the Taiwan issue will become a bargaining chip in the U.S.-China negotiations for big deals or grand negotiations. This is a completely misjudged interpretation. Whether the Taiwan issue will be a bargaining chip in this Trump-Xi meeting will not be easy in the future.
How to observe the impact of the second meeting between Trump and Xi on Taiwan? Zhang Wuyue suggested that too much focus should not be placed on the content of the meeting; what must be paid attention to in the follow-up should be whether Trump is satisfied or dissatisfied with the meeting. If he is satisfied, will Trump make a statement on the Taiwan issue that meets Beijing's expectations? If not, will Trump play the "Taiwan card" in U.S.-China relations.
Zhang Wuyue explained that "handle the Taiwan issue with caution" refers to issues that will affect U.S.-China relations. Beijing sees four indicators, including U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, arrangements for President Lai Ching-te's transit through the U.S., senior U.S. officials' visits to Taiwan, and the U.S.'s promotion of bills to strengthen Taiwan-U.S. relations. However, these four indicators are not "0" and "1", and there will be no complete ban or openness, but the extent of the spectrum.
Ming Juzheng, an honorary professor at the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, believes that the form of the second meeting between Trump and Xi is greater than the substance, and the form is greater than the harvest. Trump is facing the U.S. midterm elections and Xi is seeking re-election at the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The two sides have done enough for each other in this meeting. The effects of a high-profile meeting will be beneficial to both Trump and Xi in the short term.
In his speech at the White House, Xi Jinping mentioned that the "Thucydides Trap" is something that China and the United States can overcome. Lin Zhengyi, an adjunct researcher at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, pointed out that Xi is very wary of the "Thucydides Trap" and has repeated it again and again in several conversations with the United States. What he should pay attention to in his practice is how China can avoid the "Kindleberger Trap" and should bear and provide "international public goods" so as not to plunge the order of the waters around the Indo-Pacific into chaos.
