Why is there another turmoil on the China-India border?

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) The Indian authorities confirmed that a new border confrontation occurred between the Indian and Chinese armies. Shatrujeet Kapur, Director General of the Indian Border Police Force, issued a warning that the Indian and Chinese troops had faced off at multiple locations along the Line of Actual Control in Arunachal Pradesh in northeastern India (called South Tibet in China).

"It may be difficult to deal with China through conventional means because their People's Liberation Army and border defense forces are already far ahead in terms of military investment and modernization," he told reporters in October.

It is unclear whether the latest confrontation between Indian and Chinese troops involved physical conflict.

Border situation remains 'normal'

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China on October 26, spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to the question "India said that the Chinese army destroyed the peace in the border area" and said that China "carries out normal patrol and control activities in the border area", saying that China has strictly abided by the agreement reached by the two sides and hopes that India will meet China halfway.

Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu also downplayed the latest confrontation. He admitted that a "Chinese cross-border incident" had occurred, but said that such incidents were not new and the border situation remained "normal."

For decades, China and India have repeatedly clashed along the Line of Actual Control. The "Line of Actual Control" refers to the undemarcated de facto boundary between China and India.

In June 2020, a fierce border conflict broke out between the armies of the two countries in the Galwan Valley. The two countries accused each other of trying to seize territory. This bloody conflict resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers. However, Beijing did not announce the number of Chinese casualties for a long time. After many months, it said that four Chinese soldiers were killed. Relations between Beijing and New Delhi are still affected by the deadly conflict in 2020.

Encounter between Chinese and Indian patrols is “inevitable”

Gautam Bambawale, the former Indian ambassador to China, told DW that the two sides had confrontations from time to time "for a simple reason - because there is no consensus line between the two sides."

Aravind Yelery, a China expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told DW that the region is of growing strategic importance to Beijing. "The new change is that China has intensified its focus on the eastern sector. Since announcing the construction of the Merdeka Hydropower Project with an installed capacity of 60,000 megawatts in Tibet, Beijing has invested a large amount of infrastructure, troops, engineering and technical personnel and machinery and equipment in the region."

He described the Line of Actual Control as "not a thin line but a broad strip of overlapping claims where encounters between patrols are almost inevitable".

According to Yellery's analysis, it will take time to implement the diplomatic commitments made by the leaders of India and China. "There remains a huge gap between leaders' commitments and the practical steps that can prevent a repeat of 2020 - namely disengagement and mutual restraint."

This new confrontation comes at a time when India and China are trying to stabilize bilateral relations and get out of the shadow of the 2020 conflict. Both Beijing and New Delhi have previously taken steps aimed at easing ties, including resuming some direct flights and easing restrictions on people-to-people and economic exchanges.

It is worth noting that Chinese officials have generally maintained a low profile regarding the latest confrontation alleged by India. It is difficult to find relevant reports and discussions on official media and platforms such as Weibo. Compared with the widespread attention caused by the Galwan conflict in 2020, this friction has hardly stirred up any waves in Chinese public opinion.