Large-scale earthquakes have been frequent in Japan in recent years. The latest forecast report of the Japanese Government's Earthquake Investigation Committee also pointed out that the probability of a huge earthquake in the Nankai Trough in the next 30 years has been revised up to 80% to 90%. In this regard, well-known geoscientist and honorary professor of Kyoto University Koki Kamada pointed out in a new book that huge earthquakes are likely to occur throughout Japan, and some areas may also be associated with the risk of volcanic eruptions, and listed three areas with potential strong earthquake risks.
According to Kamada Koki's "Asking the Super Basics of Geology Now That I'm Afraid of Being Laughed" published on October 7 this year (Now's the story) The new book "Super Basics of Earth Science: Earthquakes and Eruptions of Fire" mentions that huge earthquakes are likely to occur in various parts of the Japanese archipelago in the next 30 years, and some areas may also cause volcanic activity. It bluntly states that the focus of disaster prevention should not be all on the Nankai Trough, which is located at the junction of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, and the Tokyo metropolitan area.
Kamada Koki further pointed out that the 311 Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, which caused heavy casualties, had its epicenter in the "Japan Trench" off the northeastern coast of the Japanese archipelago. In the future, there is a high possibility of another large earthquake on the north side of the epicenter, and the scale of the potential disaster cannot be underestimated. According to relevant disaster scenario estimates, if a huge earthquake occurs in the Japan Trench in the future, the economic losses caused are estimated to be 1.5 times that of the 311 Great East Japan Earthquake.
Not only that, the "Children Trench", which extends northward to the Pacific coast of Hokkaido, is also a potential area predicted by the Japanese government and experts to be susceptible to huge earthquakes. Kamada Koki said that if a large earthquake occurs in the Kuril Trench in the future, eastern Hokkaido and the Pacific coast may be affected by strong shaking and tsunamis, so the scale of the disaster may be close to or exceed the 311 Great East Japan Earthquake.
In addition to Hokkaido and the Tohoku region, Kamada Koki named the "Kyushu region" as also facing huge earthquake threats. He gave an example of the Kumamoto earthquake in 2016, followed by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2026, showing that the earthquake risk in this region cannot be ignored. Kamada Koki explained that the Kumamoto earthquake that occurred in 2016 was caused by the displacement of the "Oita-Kumamoto Tectonic Line", which is part of the "Central Tectonic Line", and its surrounding structural belts happen to be adjacent to the volcanic activity area where Mount Aso is located.
Kamada Koki warned that geological activities in these two areas will continue to this day, and strong earthquakes may affect the activity of Aso volcano, so the authorities must take earthquake and volcanic disasters into disaster prevention considerations. However, Kamada Koki also added that the relationship between earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is very complex. Not once a strong earthquake occurs, it will definitely cause a volcanic eruption. The relevant risk assessments provided by experts are mainly suitable for long-term disaster prevention planning.
