U.S. think tanks pointed out that China may be integrating and coordinating surface combat vessels in three coastal theaters to jointly carry out a single far-sea mission, thereby creating the impression that Taiwan can be isolated at any time and shaping relevant military deployment as a norm rather than a special situation.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), two major think tanks in Washington, made the above statement in the latest "China & Taiwan Update" report released on the 6th.
The scale of this unannounced large-scale military exercise exceeds the "Justice Mission-2025" military exercise around Taiwan conducted by the People's Liberation Army at the end of December last year. The report pointed out that China may intend to demonstrate its ability to cut off Taiwan's external sea and air connections in the event of conflict, thus weakening Taiwan's confidence in resisting Chinese aggression.
The Coalition Defense of Taiwan (CDOT) promoted by ISW and AEI regularly releases "China and Taiwan Situation Update" reports.
National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu posted on the social platform X on the 3rd that more than 100 PLA Navy and China Coast Guard ships are operating in the Western Pacific.
The "China and Taiwan Situation Update" report pointed out that the information released by Joseph Wu seemed to show that the People's Liberation Army Navy ships and China Coast Guard ships were mainly concentrated in two areas, between Taiwan and its main partners, to simulate isolated actions.
The first assembly area is located between Taiwan and Guam, including four task forces belonging to the eastern, northern and southern theaters of the People's Liberation Army, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier battle group. The aircraft battle group entered the Western Pacific via the Basilan Strait in the Philippines from October 23 to 26.
The second assembly area is located around Taiwan and includes at least 6 coast guard ships and an unknown number of naval vessels, forming a deployment to surround Taiwan.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense detected 49 military aircraft operating around Taiwan on the 2nd, an unusually high number. Among them, 36 were located in the south of Taiwan, possibly to support four task forces operating in the Western Pacific.
Satellite images on the 2nd showed that the People's Liberation Army Navy's most advanced aircraft carrier Fujian left the Sanya base in Hainan and sailed eastward, possibly heading to the waters south of Taiwan.
Satellite images of the Sanya Naval Base show that at least three other major surface combatants left the base between October 26 and November 2. These deployed forces account for a considerable proportion of the PLA Navy’s combat capabilities, including two of its three aircraft carriers and at least four of its 10 missile cruisers.
The report pointed out that the scale of these deployments showed that the People's Liberation Army was conducting a large-scale exercise simulating the isolation of Taiwan. The number of participating ships and the scope of their deployment exceed the PLA's most recent "Justice Mission-2025" exercise held around Taiwan. It is rare for surface forces in the eastern, northern and southern theaters to coordinate their operations. Since 2022, most of the PLA's large-scale exercises against Taiwan have centered on the Eastern Theater Command, which is mainly responsible for operations against Taiwan.
Four large surface formations belonging to three different theaters appeared outside the first island chain, possibly with the intention of coordinating the main surface combat ships of the three coastal theaters to jointly execute a high-sea operation.
The PLA Navy's main combat ships are deployed in the Western Pacific between Guam and Taiwan. The Navy and Coast Guard have jointly implemented a tighter encirclement of Taiwan, which is in line with the pattern of previous PLA exercises.
The People's Liberation Army Navy's recent exercises can prepare various coastal theaters for force coordination in such operations, thereby enhancing the People's Liberation Army's ability to effectively deter or prevent external forces from rushing to aid Taiwan in emergencies.
In a departure from recent practice, China's decision not to announce this large-scale exercise may be intended to create the impression that the People's Liberation Army can isolate Taiwan at any time. China may be trying to portray its military deployment around Taiwan and the Western Pacific as the norm rather than an exceptional situation. China may also be interested in demonstrating its ability to quickly transition from peacetime deployments to combat operations, thereby shortening the time for adversaries to detect PLA preparations for a blockade or invasion of Taiwan.
The report assesses that China intends to weaken Taiwan's confidence in its own defense capabilities and the United States' willingness to provide assistance. The PLA’s recent actions around Taiwan and across the Western Pacific may have a dual purpose: on the one hand, they are preparing for true isolation operations, while at the same time creating information effects that undermine Taiwan’s confidence in its own defense and its trust in the support capabilities of its allies and partners.
