30 days to break Ukraine. "NYT" reveals the Kremlin's secret plan

Reporting on Russia's plan for a month-long campaign of massive air attacks on Ukrainian air infrastructure, the New York Times notes that the Russian strikes so far, now in their fifth year, have brought limited results. Ukraine has found ways to shoot down missiles, and its inhabitants have adapted to the bombings.

However, this may change. Officials and analysts interviewed by the American newspaper fear that Moscow is now better prepared to achieve its goals than at any earlier stage of the war.

Weakened defenses and strained infrastructure

The daily's interlocutors mentioned three main factors that may indicate this. The first is Ukraine's air defenses, which have been weakened by years of attacks and reduced U.S. military aid.

On Thursday, CNN reported that Ukraine had run out of interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system. As a result, almost none of the Russian ballistic missiles fired during the latest salvo were intercepted.

It is not without significance that the Russians have increased their arsenal of missiles and drones, and the weapons themselves have become more effective over the past few years. In addition, there is the problem with Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which is now so strained that a single hit can cause damage as serious as several hits in the past.

Russia is confident that it can destroy the Ukrainian energy system. This is reflected in the intercepted attack plan that Kiev presented to European officials last month.

Document on the scale of planned attacks

The plan, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, estimated that Russia would need about 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones and 150 guided bombs to cut off Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa from their water, electricity and heating supplies. This is approximately the number of ballistic missiles and drones that - according to a "NYT" analysis based on data from the Ukrainian Air Force - get through Ukrainian air defense on average every month.

If the plan were successfully implemented, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa could lose 90 percent. own electricity generation capacity. The possibilities of heat supply would decrease by the same amount. Water and sewage systems would also be seriously disrupted.

A Ukrainian government official and a European diplomat in Kiev told the newspaper that the capital could enter winter with very limited its own energy production capacity.