(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva delivered a clearly worded speech at the opening ceremony of the United Nations General Assembly last Tuesday (September 22). He said: "Brazil is not anyone's 'backyard.'" What he meant was that US President Trump had repeatedly interfered in Brazil's internal affairs by supporting the right-wing camp led by former President Jair Messias Bolsonaro. Trump has tried to use sanctions and punitive tariffs to prevent Bolsonaro from being sentenced on charges of attempted coup.
On October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, will compete against Lula. Polls show the two are neck and neck in support. The election attracted international attention. Brazil is the world's fifth largest economy and a major agricultural country. At the same time, Brazil is rich in natural resources, from rare earths and huge water resources to huge crude oil reserves.
Lula is one of the few left-wing leaders in South America still in power. Bolsonaro Jr. belongs to the growing right-wing camp. The current governments of Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Colombia all tend to support Trump. Venezuela has even become a U.S. protectorate to some extent.
Will Brazil move closer to the United States?
Brazil's general election campaign has always been dominated by domestic politics, with voters showing little interest in foreign policy. But the election will determine whether Brazil moves closer to the United States under Trump.
Trump is seeking to achieve economic and military dominance in the Americas through the "American Shield" initiative. He exerted economic pressure on Mexico and Cuba and intervened militarily in Venezuela. At the same time, he also hopes to reduce China's influence.
Lula has always advocated the revitalization of multilateralism, which is also the traditional stance of Brazilian diplomacy: dialogue with all parties and conducting trade with all countries. Against this background, China has long become Brazil's most important trading partner.
In contrast, Bolsonaro Jr. hopes to build an alliance with the United States and other conservative forces.
However, Leonardo Paz from the think tank Vargas Foundation (FGV) told DW that even if Flavio Bolsonaro wins the election, it will not necessarily mean closer relations between Brazil and the United States. Despite initial friction, Lula eventually succeeded in establishing a largely normal relationship with Trump. The two leaders, who are nearly eighty years old, get along well, and Lula has not succumbed to the pressure exerted by Trump.
Paz is worried that if the 45-year-old Bolsonaro wins the election, he may make too many concessions to Trump. His father, former President Bolsonaro, made major concessions to the United States. Brazil once gave up its status as a developing country in the WTO in exchange for the United States pushing Brazil to strengthen relations with NATO and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), but this commitment was ultimately not fulfilled.
Rubens Ricupero, a former diplomat and minister, told DW: "If Lula remains in power, relations between Brazil and the United States will generally continue as they are; but if Flavio Bolsonaro is elected president, the situation will be unpredictable. Lula has a reputation in foreign policy, and Flavio Bolsonaro has a complete lack of experience."
How will China be affected?
If Bolsonaro wins the election, relations between Brazil and the BRICS countries led by China may be affected.
Bolsonaro has said that one of his first actions after taking office will be to reassess whether Brazil should remain in the BRICS mechanism. He believes that this mechanism exists only to provoke the United States.
Unlike Lula, Bolsonaro has also spoken out against Beijing's efforts to reduce the dollar's global dominance.
However, considering the close economic relationship between Brazil and China, it is doubtful to what extent the above statement can be implemented.
Bolsonaro's ally, Argentine President Javier Milei, also made tough remarks against China before winning the election. But in order not to jeopardize Chinese loans and bilateral trade relations, Milley quickly slowed down his tough stance towards China.
Ricupero predicted that if Bolsonaro wins the election, Brazil-China political relations may cool down, but economic and trade relations will not change substantially.
Pass shares a similar view. He believes that Flavio Bolsonaro is unlikely to take an extremely tough stance on China like his father did when he first took office.
In the early days of Bolsonaro’s administration, then-Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo used tough rhetoric against Beijing. However, given that Brazilian agricultural products are highly dependent on the Chinese market, Bolsonaro quickly softened his tone.
The Bolsonaro family’s strongest supporters come precisely from those agricultural regions that have benefited hugely from trade with China.
Paz believes that one unknown factor facing Flavio Bolsonaro is: "How much pressure will the United States exert to force Brazil to distance itself from China? And to what extent will he succumb to this pressure?"
Lack of own “hard power”
Although Brazil has natural resource reserves that are vital to the global economy, Paz believes that no matter who wins the election, Brazil will struggle to play a leading role on the global stage. Because Brazil lacks the power base needed to become a global leader: it does not have enough economic power to provide financial assistance to other countries, nor does it lack the military power to contribute to the resolution of international conflicts.
"This significantly limits Brazil's ability to act," Paz said.
Still, Brazil can continue to function as a representative of the global South, as Lula has been doing so far.
"This is particularly evident in international debates on global governance, where Brazil explores issues such as new trade terms, climate policy and development," Paz said.
Ricupero believes that Lula is particularly able to exert diplomatic influence in environmental protection and combating climate change: "His choice of Marina Silva as environment minister demonstrates his determination to deal with ecological challenges." Silva is regarded as an iconic figure in the field of global environmental protection.
In contrast, Bolsonaro's environmental policy stance is close to Trump's. If he is elected, Brazil may regress in this area.
Ricupero believes that part of the reason why Brazil's election has attracted great attention from the international community is that Bolsonaro Jr. may repeat the mistakes of his father.
The elder Bolsonaro weakened environmental protections during his time in office, leading to his government's international isolation. Relations between Brazil and the EU have been particularly affected, with negotiations on a trade agreement between Mercosur and the EU temporarily frozen.
After Lula came to power, the two sides finally reached an agreement.
Lula maintains friendly relations with the EU leadership, while Bolsonaro hopes to follow Argentina's lead and prioritize seeking a bilateral trade agreement with the United States.
Brussels may prefer Lula to win.
