Rubio meets Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly while Trump prepares to receive Xi Jinping in Washington

The US State Department announced, on Tuesday, that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, today (Wednesday) on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings.

The meeting comes at a time when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will deliver a speech before the General Assembly on the same day.

The Ukrainian President announced earlier, Tuesday, his country's readiness to stop targeting Russian energy facilities, if Moscow agreed to take a similar step.

But he indicated that he was not aware of Moscow's position on the proposal, expressing his hope that "the American side will be able to find a way (...) to push it into any form of negotiations."

He pointed out that Washington and Kiev want to end the war with Russia before winter, after a meeting he described as “positive” with his American counterpart, Donald Trump.

“I had a positive and productive meeting with President Trump at the United Nations General Assembly,” Zelensky wrote on social media. “The United States and Ukraine want to end this senseless Russian war before winter.”

The war has continued since Russia launched its military attack on Ukraine in February 2022, while American efforts aimed at ending the conflict have faltered in recent months.

For months, Russia and Ukraine have been exchanging long-range strikes that are escalating in intensity and targeting an increasing number of civilian sites, including factories, warehouses, energy facilities, and ports, in addition to ships in the Black Sea.

The American capital, Washington, is preparing to receive a remarkable reception for Chinese President Xi Jinping, as President Donald Trump receives him on Wednesday evening at Andrews Air Force Base, before the visit moves on Thursday to the White House, where extensive state ceremonies will be held that precede the most important talks between the leaders of the two largest economies in the world.

All eyes are on whether the protocol hospitality will succeed in stabilizing the fragile truce between Washington and Beijing and transforming it into a more stable understanding, or whether it will merely postpone the emergence of deep strategic differences that are still difficult to resolve.

According to the program announced by the White House, Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, will arrive at Andrews Military Base on Wednesday evening, where Trump, in an unusual step, will go to receive them personally.

On Thursday, the US President and First Lady Melania Trump will hold an official reception ceremony at the White House, in which 479 military personnel from various branches of the armed forces will participate. The ceremony includes the playing of the two national anthems, two speeches by the two leaders, a military parade in the Flower Garden, in addition to an air show in which a B-2 bomber and four F-22 fighters participate.

Following the ceremony, closed talks between Trump and Xi begin, while Melania Trump and Peng Liyuan visit the National Museum of Asian Art. On Thursday evening, the Chinese President will return to the White House to attend a banquet in the East Hall, before the visit program concludes on Friday with a private tea party with Trump and his wife, then a joint visit to the National Archives, followed by bidding farewell to Xi.

In its symbolism, this ceremony goes beyond the framework of a traditional working visit. Trump seeks to highlight the personal nature of his relationship with Xi, while the Chinese president arrives in Washington for the first time in more than a decade, at a moment when the two powers are trying to prevent their escalating economic and technological competition from sliding into open confrontation.

Five pivotal issues

Behind the military parade and the red carpet, thorny issues are accumulating, none of which are difficult to resolve at a single summit, from customs duties and trade to rare metals, artificial intelligence, and Taiwan, all the way to the Iran war.

The trade file tops the agenda of the talks, with the current customs truce approaching its end on November 10. Washington seeks to push Beijing to increase its purchases of American agricultural products and aircraft, while demanding that China ease some fees and restrictions imposed on technology.

According to the Associated Press, implementation of previous understandings remains uneven. Chinese purchases of American agricultural products remained below hoped-for levels, and a deal to purchase 200 aircraft from Boeing has not yet been completed, while the establishment of an investment council has stalled in light of continuing mutual security concerns.

However, the file that redrawn the balance of negotiations is rare metals. According to Reuters, China's control over up to 70 percent of global mining operations and more than 85 percent of refining capabilities gave Beijing a pressure card that Washington was not fully prepared to confront.

The restrictions previously imposed by China showed that the response to US tariffs is not necessarily limited to corresponding fees, but could extend to restricting the supply of materials involved in vital industries, from cars and chips to US defense industries.

Artificial intelligence stands out as one of the files that combine competition and the possibility of cooperation at the same time. In New York ahead of the summit, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent and Chinese Deputy Premier He Lifeng discussed creating a mechanism to notify each party of serious incidents related to artificial intelligence that may affect national security, in an attempt to build a form of “safety barriers” between the two powers.

As for Taiwan, it remains the most sensitive issue, especially in light of the continuing dispute over US arms sales to the island, and Beijing’s efforts to push Washington to adopt a position more sensitive to its demands. In addition to it, the Iranian file is present at a moment when the Trump administration seeks to increase economic pressure on Tehran, while China remains a major trading partner for Iran.

According to the Washington Post, the US President is entering this diplomatic round on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings after a period that witnessed tension in his relations with a number of allies, at a time when Xi seeks to present China, before other countries, as a more stable and predictable partner.

The Chinese President arrives in Washington after a tour that included Kyrgyzstan, Egypt and India, as part of a broader effort to present his country as a stable power with a wide margin of options and partnerships, and capable of presenting itself as a reliable partner, while its economic growth serves the global economy.

As for the New York Times, it pointed out the difference in the time horizon of the two leaders. Trump is moving under pressure from the November midterm elections and the cost of an exhausting war with Iran, while Xi is preparing for a fourth term at the head of the ruling Communist Party, ensuring that he will remain in the leadership position for an additional five years. This disparity gives both men different, albeit intersecting, motivations to avoid the relationship sliding into a new round of mutual escalation.

Modest expectations

Scott Kennedy, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes that the summit is too big to fail because the two largest powers in the world have a direct interest in preventing the collapse of the relationship, but at the same time it is smaller than the size of the problems facing the international system, as realistic expectations for the meeting appear limited compared to challenges extending from the economy and technology to wars and global security.

Kennedy considers that the mere holding of the meeting and the continuation of dialogue channels represent an added value in and of themselves, but the gap between the magnitude of the challenges and the limited expected results reveals, in his opinion, a broader vacuum in global leadership. Researchers at the center also believe that the summit may provide an opportunity to begin setting limited rules for risk management, rather than reaching a comprehensive agreement regulating technological competition.

Another analysis by the Center warns against ignoring the increasing maritime frictions in Asia, considering that trade alone is not enough to ensure long-term stability as long as security issues are outside the framework of dialogue.

For his part, Ryan Haass, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, believes that Beijing is not deceived by the conciliatory signals issued by Trump, but rather views the strategic competition with the United States as a long-term reality. In an analysis published by the institute, he points out a clear paradox: Trump uses more positive language towards Xi, while his administration continues to impose restrictions on Chinese companies, tighten technological controls, and pressure other countries to reduce their dependence on Chinese supply chains.

In contrast, Beijing has not fully implemented a number of its economic commitments, including those related to rare earth flows and purchases from the United States. Haas believes that the relationship is going through a phase of “uncomfortable calm,” and that the most likely outcome of the summit is not the settlement of existing disputes, but rather an extension of the trade truce and the preservation of fragile stability, with the possibility of opening a limited dialogue regarding the risks of artificial intelligence.

Extension of the trade truce

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in turn lowers expectations. According to his estimates, the summit may succeed in extending the trade truce, but it is unlikely to change the basic course of the competition, as Washington does not appear ready to easily abandon the fees and restrictions imposed on advanced chips, nor does Beijing appear ready to give up vital metals.

On the other hand, the chances of achieving major breakthroughs in the files of Iran, Taiwan, or other geopolitical issues appear limited. The institute believes that the most realistic positive outcome is the continuation of an uncomfortable truce and the avoidance of reigniting the trade war.

Here emerges the paradox surrounding Xi's visit: the more grandiose the reception, the more apparent the limitations of the potential outcomes. Trump wants increased Chinese purchases, stable prices and supply chains, guaranteed flows of rare earths, and perhaps Chinese cooperation, or at least some restraint, regarding Iran.

As for Xi, he seeks to ease American tariffs and technological restrictions, provide more space for the Chinese economy, and obtain reassurances regarding Taiwan, in addition to establishing practical American acceptance of the fact that Beijing has become a power on which Washington cannot impose unilateral conditions.