The 31st General Assembly of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change opens on the 9th... Will I achieve results despite small expectations?

The 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31) will be held from the 9th to the 20th (local time) in Antalya, on the southern coast of Turkiye.

The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment announced on the 8th that it would dispatch a government delegation with Minister Kim Seong-hwan as the chief representative (replacement chief representative Gyeon Jong-ho, Climate Change Ambassador of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs).

This general meeting, held on the 10th anniversary of the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, which set the goal of limiting the increase in global temperature to below 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, is billed as a 'general meeting of implementation', but expectations for the general meeting are not high.

This is because it is questionable whether we can join forces again to respond to climate change in a situation where multilateralism is missing and high prices and an energy crisis persist due to war in the Middle East.

Some are criticizing the fact that Turkiye and Australia, who were competing to host COP31, ended up splitting the 'chair country' and 'negotiation chair country' positions in an unusual way, which clearly shows the international relations that are unable to reach an agreement.

The United States, which produces one-eighth of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, will not send an executive branch delegation for the second time in a row following the last General Assembly.

President Donald Trump issued an executive order to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on January 20 last year, when he began his second term, and also withdrew from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change earlier this year. According to regulations, the United States will lose its status as a party to the climate change agreement in February next year.

“We cannot expect groundbreaking changes in climate action at this COP,” a senior EU official told France's AFP news agency.

Various indicators released ahead of COP31 show that the possibility that humanity will not achieve the goals it has set for itself is increasing.

According to a recent report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), in order to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees in the middle of this century with a 50% probability and return to below 1.5 degrees by 2100, greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 must be reduced by 18% compared to last year. However, even if each country's greenhouse gas reduction target is fully achieved, the reduction is only 5 to 8%.

Of course, this does not mean that COP31, which will be attended by more than 100,000 people from 198 parties, international organizations, civic groups, and industry, is completely devoid of expectations.

First of all, what is expected is the role of Brazil, where President Luiz Inacio Lula Dasiouba, who has made climate change response his main agenda, has been elected to a fourth term.

Brazil, which was the chair of COP30, recently presented a roadmap for transitioning from fossil fuels and stopping deforestation ahead of COP31.

At COP30 held in Belém, Brazil, it was expected that a roadmap to implement the 'transition from fossil fuels' at COP28 held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) would be prepared, but as the differences in positions between the parties, mainly oil-producing countries, the EU, and Pacific island countries, were not narrowed, the final agreement did not include provisions on phasing out fossil fuels.

Expectations are also rising over the '35x35 electrification pledge' supported by the chairman, Turkiye.

Turkiye proposed a goal of covering more than 35% of final energy consumption with electricity by 2035. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current ratio is around 23%.

There are many analyzes that the host country, Turkiye, is trying to achieve results through the '35x35 Electrification Pledge', which is one of the action agenda, in a situation where there are low expectations that the official negotiations will produce significant results.

The IEA recently released a related report and explained, "Considering currently available technologies and energy prices before the supply shock (due to the Middle East war), we predict that 33% of final energy consumption will be covered by electricity by 2035. If current energy prices are maintained amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the proportion of electrification will expand further."

However, some point out that the problem is how to achieve electrification with the electricity obtained.

Climate Solutions pointed out, “If the increasing demand for electricity is met by expanding fossil fuel power generation such as gas, electrification can become a path to increasing dependence on fossil fuels.”

Artificial intelligence (AI) is also expected to be a major agenda item at COP31.

Turkiye recently unveiled the ‘Antalya AI Pledge’ together with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

The original text of the pledge included the need to disclose energy usage and environmental impact data resulting from the provision of AI services and increase the use of zero-carbon and low-carbon electricity.

Discussions regarding climate finance also continue. Previously, the parties agreed to provide and mobilize at least $300 billion annually by 2035 for climate response in developing countries, and to mobilize at least $1.3 trillion annually regardless of public and private sectors, but no specific implementation plan was prepared.

Measures to minimize the so-called 'overshoot' period, in which the global temperature rise temporarily exceeds 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, and measures to reduce methane emissions will also be discussed at COP31.

The second global compliance check (GST), which checks whether the Paris Agreement is being implemented, will also begin in earnest from COP31.

As with previous general meetings, Korea's position is to contribute to the progress of negotiations together with the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) formed by Switzerland, Mexico, Monaco, Liechtenstein, and Georgia.

We plan to pursue the signing of a 'Decarbonization Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding' with Australia, the negotiating chair country, and hold bilateral meetings with Australia, the UK, Kenya, the EU, and international organizations.