The Democratic Party's victory in the US midterm elections may put pressure on Trump to unfreeze arms sales to Taiwan. Former Chinese diplomat calls the number one risk

The Republicans lost in the U.S. midterm elections. Some foreign media analyzed that after the Democrats regain control of Congress, they may pressure Trump to unfreeze arms sales to Taiwan. Some former Chinese diplomats believe that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are the "number one risk" Beijing faces after the election.

According to a "Reuters" report, the disastrous defeat of the Republican Party led by Trump in the midterm elections may increase China's leverage in trade negotiations with the United States. However, Beijing is unlikely to be complacent about Trump's difficulties because his successor may have a tougher attitude towards China.

The report pointed out that Trump currently maintains friendship with Xi Jinping, but former Democratic President Biden has repeatedly angered Beijing on human rights and Taiwan issues, and potential Republican successors such as Secretary of State Rubio are also considered to have a tougher stance on China.

The report quoted analysts as saying that the divided political landscape in the United States has provided Beijing with space and may make Trump more cautious in handling the fragile trade truce agreement with Beijing. However, Shen Weizhong, a researcher at a Beijing think tank and a former official of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that China is very pragmatic and understands that the new president may be completely different from Trump. He bluntly said that if the situation can be maintained for another two years, China will have more time to prepare for the next trade war, and even a final showdown with the United States on the Taiwan issue.

However, other analysts believe that the next two years may not be so smooth sailing for Beijing. For example, Trump, who is frustrated at home, may also become more aggressive in seeking "victory" in foreign policy; and the Congress controlled by the Democratic Party may also put pressure on Trump to unfreeze arms sales to Taiwan.

Chim Lee, a senior China issues analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, pointed out that the general direction of U.S.-China policy may not necessarily change, but Trump may adopt more unconventional diplomatic methods, which may have unexpected impacts on China. The more worrying one may be that the Iran war will expand into a regional conflict, causing international oil prices to continue to soar, threatening China's energy security and disrupting relations between Beijing and Middle Eastern countries.

Craig Singleton, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a US think tank, pointed out that Beijing may believe that Trump needs to reach a trade agreement more than China, and therefore takes a tougher stance in negotiations, requiring the United States to lower tariffs and make other concessions. But Singleton warned that China could also misjudge the situation and undermine the stability that Xi Jinping is trying to maintain.

Although China continues to deal with Trump, today's U.S. Congress is more willing to exert pressure on human rights issues and has stricter scrutiny of Chinese investments. The U.S. Congress is also pushing for $14 billion worth of arms sales to Taiwan, which Trump has previously said he would withhold as a "bargaining chip" in negotiations with Xi Jinping. However, Shen Weizhong believes that this is the "number one risk" Beijing faces after the election.