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Back黃金價格週五下跌 美元走強及殖利率高檔施壓
黃金價格週五下跌 美元走強及殖利率高檔施壓
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自由时报5 hours agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

黃金價格週五下跌 美元走強及殖利率高檔施壓

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黃金價格週五下跌0.9%,報每盎司4140.06美元,因美元走強及美國國債殖利率處於高檔,對不孳息的黃金構成壓力。現貨黃金本週迄今約下跌3.4%。美國10年期及30年期國債殖利率週四升至2002年以來最高水準。美國9月非農就業人口僅增加2.9萬人,低於預期的9萬人。Bybit首席市場分析師Han Tan表示,黃金多頭可能不願過度樂觀,因聯準會仍維持鷹派立場。自美以對伊朗開戰以來,黃金價格已下跌逾20%。其他貴金屬白銀、白金、鈀金亦同步下跌。

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Why It Matters

黃金作為傳統避險資產,其價格通常受美元走勢、實際利率及地緣政治事件影響。近期美國就業數據疲弱,但國債殖利率仍居高不下,顯示市場對通膨及利率前景存在分歧。

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黃金價格週五(2日)下跌。(美聯社)

〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕黃金價格週五(2日)下跌,回吐稍早漲幅,美元走強以及美國國債殖利率處於高檔,對不孳息的黃金構成壓力,使金價本週收跌。

現貨黃金下跌0.9%,報每盎司4140.06美元,本週迄今約下跌3.4%。

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美國黃金期貨收跌1%,報每盎司4162.30美元。

美國10年期及30年期國債殖利率週四(1日)升至2002年以來最高水準。另外,美國數據顯示9月就業成長幅度低於預期,金價稍早一度上漲逾1%,之後轉跌。

美國勞工部週五公布的就業報告顯示,美國非農就業人口上月增加2.9萬人,8月增幅則從原先公布的16.2萬人下修至13.3萬人。接受路透調查的經濟學家原先預估9月非農就業人口將增加9萬人。

Bybit首席市場分析師Han Tan表示:「目前黃金多頭可能不願過度樂觀,因為他們知道聯準會仍維持鷹派立場。」、「未來幾個月,黃金價格走勢很大程度上將取決於聯準會願意容忍勞動市場疲軟到什麼程度,同時聯準會仍將目標牢牢放在壓低美國通膨。」

自美國與以色列於2月底對伊朗開戰以來,黃金價格已下跌逾20%,市場預期衝突引發的通膨可能讓利率在更長時間內維持高檔,進而對金價造成壓力。

最新公布的通膨數據低於預期,加上至少2名聯準會高層決策官員反對10月再次升息,已強化投資人押注,即聯準會將在本月稍晚維持利率不變。

根據芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具,目前交易員認為聯準會本月升息的機率約為22%,本週稍早則約為70%。

其他貴金屬方面,現貨白銀下跌0.8%,報每盎司60.36美元;白金下跌2%,報每盎司1692.90美元;鈀金下跌0.5%,報每盎司1165.75美元。這3種貴金屬本週也都收跌。

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 聯準會將在本月稍晚維持利率不變

    Very likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 聯準會將在何時轉向寬鬆政策?
  • 中東衝突是否會進一步升級?
  • 實際利率何時會開始顯著下降?

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