Stop the wave of the right wing in Latin America! Lula narrowly wins Brazilian election, preventing Trump from taking control of the Western Hemisphere

Brazil's current leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff on the 25th, showing that Brazilian voters refused to allow Latin America's resurgent right-wing forces to win the final victory, interrupting the conservative streak of winning seven consecutive presidential elections in the past 18 months.

The Associated Press reported that this eye-catching victory not only curtailed U.S. President Trump's attempts to strengthen his control over the Western Hemisphere, but also consolidated Latin America's most populous and economic country as an important force to counter Washington. If Bolsonaro's camp wins, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will become the only remaining progressive president among the major powers in the region.

Across much of Latin America, voters fed up with organized crime and economic instability are casting their ballots for candidates promising to restore order. From Peru’s Keiko Fujimori, Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella to Chile’s Jose Antonio Kast, these newly elected conservative leaders have moved closer to Trump and imitated El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele’s iron-fist anti-gang policy. Trump has reinforced this rightward trend through election endorsements, financial bailouts and millions of dollars in military aid.

Brazil would have been Washington's most influential strategic puzzle piece, but Lula defended Brazil's long tradition of non-alignment and deepened trade relations with China. Analysts pointed out that for the Trump administration, Lula's victory made it more complicated to win over Brazil to join the military alliance against drug cartels and to obtain preferential access to the country's key minerals. Previously, Trump had used punitive tariffs, severe sanctions and military force to reaffirm the United States' dominance in the region.

However, there are still reasons for cooperation. Washington is eager to acquire Brazil's rich rare earth resources to reduce its defense industry's dependence on China; Lula needs foreign investment and to obtain tariff reductions for Brazilian exporters.

Despite his tough remarks to the outside world, Lula still tried to maintain peace with Trump. He is bound to have more negotiations with Trump on tariff issues in the future. At home, conservatives expanded their seats in the October 4 parliamentary elections, depriving Lula of the support he needed to push for major reforms. Lula, who is entering his third term, is trying his best to appease voters who are impatient with security and high prices.

Experts point out that alliances in Latin America that unite against common enemies often face splitting after taking power. Trump's new allies have lost support in Chile, Bolivia and Peru, suggesting the region's rightward shift may not be as durable as it appears. Although Lula has successfully resisted the "anti-incumbent" wave, his support may quickly evaporate as he negotiates with domestic and foreign political opponents to hand over political achievements.