Ukraine faces a paradox that is exacerbated by the volatility of the fuel market. The strikes it launches to raise the cost of the war on Russia have become the subject of American pressure to stop them, after President Donald Trump linked the targeting of Russian refineries to the global diesel shortage. Between Kiev's need to maintain a tool that drains its opponent's economy and Washington's need to ease price pressures, the proposal to protect energy facilities has returned to the forefront, while attacks on infrastructure continue to test opportunities to reduce calm.
The exchanged strikes continued on Tuesday, coinciding with a Ukrainian announcement of an attack north of Donetsk, and tension escalated in the Baltic Sea after a Russian frigate fired two flares at a Danish military helicopter, downing a march over Lithuania, and an attack on a Ukrainian train near the Polish border, coinciding with the departure of another train that was carrying Western officials.
So far, the mechanism for implementing the agreement, which Trump claimed the two sides had agreed to, remains unclear. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Volodymyr Zelensky expressed conditional readiness, while Moscow welcomed the call to stop strikes on its facilities. These positions are separated by questions about reciprocity, guarantees, and the scope of protected targets, all amid an escalation that approaches NATO's borders.
Conditional truce
Zelensky linked his support for the American proposal to Washington's ability to guarantee Moscow's seriousness. He stressed the need for any understanding to be credible, durable, and to have a tangible impact on the lives of civilians. Therefore, the Ukrainian position did not provide absolute support for Trump's declaration, but rather a request to translate it into verifiable commitments.
The wording is particularly important, as protecting “energy facilities” may be narrower in scope than stopping attacks on “vital infrastructure,” which includes transportation and logistics facilities. Any ambiguity in the definition allows the continuation of strikes on economic targets of different classifications, and makes the exchange of accusations of violating the understanding closer than consolidating it.
For its part, the Kremlin welcomed Trump's call for Kiev to stop targeting diesel facilities. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that the unrest in the Gulf is the main driver of instability in the energy market, according to Reuters. This position gives Moscow an opportunity to defend its oil sector, without alone constituting a corresponding pledge to stop bombing Ukrainian facilities.
This bargaining has previously appeared in the maritime navigation file. On August 24, Zelensky said that Russia was not ready to agree to a truce on grain ships because it was seeking to expand its scope to include Russian refineries and pipelines, according to Reuters. This reveals that negotiations on protecting the economies of the two countries have been underway for weeks, and that the dispute centers on the cost and limits of each concession.
The field tests promises
This diplomatic effort comes in light of an ongoing field escalation, as Russia launched a night attack with about 200 marches, hitting energy and port facilities in Ukraine and killing two people, while gas stations in Kiev were damaged.
On the other hand, Zelensky announced the targeting of the Russian Syzran refinery and march production facilities in Taganrog and Oryol. On Monday, Russian local authorities announced that one person was killed and another injured in a drone attack on a commercial facility in a village in the Belgorod region.
On the contact lines, the commander of the Ukrainian Third Corps, Andrey Beletsky, announced an offensive operation north of Donetsk, which he said had removed Russian infiltrations from an area of 75 square kilometers, and recovered an additional 10 kilometers. Reuters reported that the operation aimed to disrupt the Russian supply near Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, while Russian pressure continues south towards Kostyantinivka, but it is difficult to verify these reports independently.
This is accompanied by targeting communication routes away from the front. Sunday's attack on a train near the Polish border once again highlighted the fragility of the transportation network, and the head of the Ukrainian railways confirmed on Monday that the attacks were worsening week after week, according to Agence France-Presse. These incidents illustrate the ongoing exchange of blows, but they are not sufficient alone to judge the extent of compliance with a proposal whose implementation date has not been announced. This expands the question of calm: Does it include the protection of electricity and fuel only, or also the facilities that allow the continuity of economic life?
Frictions with NATO
In a new development, the Danish army confirmed that, on Monday, a Russian frigate fired two flare bombs towards a “Fink” helicopter that was on a routine photography mission in international waters off Gedser, and one of the bombs passed close to the helicopter. Copenhagen summoned the Russian ambassador, who responded by accusing the helicopter of carrying out dangerous maneuvers near the ship.
On Monday evening, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausěda announced, according to Sky News, that NATO fighters shot down his country’s airspace drone near Vilnius. The reports did not confirm their source, although the incident occurred amid escalating regional tension.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed, on Monday, that the response to the train attack would be to increase support for Kiev and strengthen the alliance’s defenses, according to Agence France-Presse. The frictions add a burden to the attempt to separate the Ukrainian war from the security of its European backers. While Washington is looking to ease the economic blows, Atlantic capitals face questions of deterrence and protecting their forces. Hence, the weight of Trump's initiative depends on transforming the declared consensus into specific mutual commitments, while Tuesday's developments suggest that improving the conditions for negotiation is still taking place by force, in depth, on the front, and around NATO's borders.
A special Kosovo court, based in The Hague, issued a 25-year prison sentence on Wednesday against the former President of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci, after convicting him of war crimes committed by militias from Kosovo in the 1990s.
The court's judges convicted Taji, who was tried alongside three other former militia leaders, of crimes that included unlawful detention, torture, murder and cruel treatment.
“The court sentenced you to 25 years in prison, including the period you spent in detention,” the judge, President Charles Smith, said while reading the ruling, addressing Taji.
Taghi, who was wearing a dark suit, white shirt and tie, listened to the ruling without showing any signs of emotion.
More than 3 years after the start of the initial trial, the Special Court for Kosovo convicted Thaci, the former political leader of the Kosovo Liberation Army, of committing crimes attributed to this armed group during the war against Serbian forces, as well as in the period immediately following the conflict, specifically in 1998 and 1999.
Thaci was serving as President of Kosovo at the time of his indictment in November 2020, when he resigned from his position and was transferred to The Hague. Where he was placed in detention.
During the trial, the prosecution addressed facts related to killings, torture, persecution, and illegal detention of people in camps inside Kosovo and northern Albania.
According to the indictment, members of the Kosovo Liberation Army committed these crimes against hundreds of civilians, including Serbs, Roma, and Kosovar Albanians, who were considered political opponents.
It is noteworthy that about 13,000 people were killed in the Kosovo conflict, including 11,000 Kosovo Albanians, the majority of whom were civilians. The war ended with a bombing campaign launched by NATO, and Serbian forces were forced to withdraw from the region.
For the majority of Kosovo's ethnic Albanian population, Hashim Thaci and the Kosovo Liberation Army are a symbol of the struggle for independence from Serbia.
