
自美伊2月28日冲突爆发后,伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡试图施压,美国实施海上封锁。联合国官员警告,若美伊未在数周内就联合国支持的化肥经霍尔木兹海峡运输计划达成协议,亚洲和非洲部分地区可能面临粮食安全危机,因该海峡承运全球约三分之一尿素和近一半硫磺出口。
AI-generated summary
自美伊2月28日冲突爆发后,伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡试图向美国施压,美国也对伊朗港口实施海上封锁。该海峡是全球重要的化肥运输通道,承运约三分之一的尿素和近一半的硫磺出口。
自從美國和以色列2月28日空襲伊朗後,伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽試圖向美國施壓,美國也對伊朗港口實施海上封鎖。聯合國專案服務辦公室(UNOPS)執行主任達席瓦(Jorge Moreira da Silva)14日表示,若美國與伊朗未能在數週內就1項獲聯合國支持、讓化肥經由荷姆茲海峽運輸的計畫達成協議,亞洲與非洲部分地區可能面臨糧食安全危機。
根據《路透》報導,美伊衝突爆發前,全球約三分之一的尿素出口運輸和全球近一半的海運硫磺都是經由荷姆茲海峽運輸。尿素是世界上使用最廣泛的化肥,硫磺也是化肥生產的重要原料。
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聯合國3月成立助化肥通過荷姆茲海峽的專責工作小組,但該小組制定的運作機制尚未實施。達席瓦14日在曼谷接受採訪時表示,一旦美國與伊朗達成協議,該機制最快可在7至10天內啟動。
達席瓦說「在接下來幾週內達成協議,絕對至關重要,否則我們將錯過播種季節。若我們錯過播種季節,農業生產力將大幅下降,並影響農作物價格。」
達席瓦指出,即使每天只有5艘船通過荷姆茲海峽,也足以讓化肥持續運往迫切需要化肥的國家。達席瓦補充說,船舶在通行期間將受到追蹤。如果有國家對特定船隻或其貨物提出疑慮,當局也可以進行額外檢查。
總部位於華盛頓的國際糧食政策研究所(International Food Policy Research Institute)9月在1份報告中指出,自美伊衝突爆發以來已超過6個月,而來自波斯灣地區的化肥運輸仍大致處於停滯狀態。
國際商會8月也發布的1份報告稱,如果荷姆茲海峽的運輸持續中斷,大宗商品價格可能上漲,其中穀物價格最高可能上漲81%、油料作物價格可能上漲66%,畜產品價格則可能上漲30%。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
若美伊在未来几周内达成协议,联合国工作小组的运作机制将在7至10天内启动
Likely · Within weeks
如果霍尔木兹海峡运输持续中断,全球谷物价格可能上涨最高81%
Possible · Within months

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