Taoyuan poll holds tight at 4%! Hu Caiping: Light blue loosens to welcome golden cross
The People's Association and Dai Li'an released the latest poll, Huang Shijie overtook Zhang Shanzheng among the "will vote" group
Quick Look
- The People's Association and polling expert Dai Li'an released the latest poll on the Taoyuan mayoral election.
- The Kuomintang candidate Zhang Shanzheng's support is 36.9%, slightly ahead of the DPP candidate Huang Shijie's 32.8%.
- The gap between the two sides is only 4.1 percentage points.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Taoyuan mayoral election will be held on November 28. The current mayor, Zhang Shanzheng, is seeking re-election and will be challenged by DPP candidate Huang Shijie. The Trustees Association entrusted Dai Li'an to be responsible for the design and analysis of the questionnaire, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted the telephone interview. The survey targets were people registered in Taoyuan City and over the age of 20. From November 4 to November 6, 1,074 people were successfully interviewed. The maximum sampling error of the combined sample at a reliability level of 95% was ±3.0%.
Democratic Progressive Party candidate for Taoyuan mayor Huang Shijie (middle). (File photo)
The People's Association and polling expert Dai Li'an released the latest poll on the Taoyuan mayoral election yesterday (10th). The Kuomintang Taoyuan mayor candidate Zhang Shanzheng, who is seeking re-election, has 36.9% support, slightly ahead of the DPP candidate Huang Shijie's 32.8%. The gap between the two sides is only 4.1 percentage points. Financial internet celebrity Hu Caiping pointed out, From being behind by 26% in early September, it has been catching up. After Chen Zhizhong announced that it was behind by 22% in the polls, by 14% in early October, and by 8% in the non-green camp polls in late October, it has now steadily climbed to only 4% behind. The overall election situation has officially entered the golden cross stage, and it is hoped that it can assist the DPP to achieve its goal of complete victory in the six-city election.
Hu Caiping quoted the latest poll data from the People's Association on Facebook fan page "Emmy's Drama Time" today. She explained that Zhang Shanzheng was temporarily ahead of Huang Shijie's 32.8% support with 36.9%. However, among the key respondent groups who "will vote", Huang Shijie was slightly ahead of Zhang Shanzheng's 41.4% with 42.7%.
Please read on...
In addition, the particularly gratifying part is the so-called G4, G5, and G6 median voters. G4 means both of them are good, but if you ask them who they want to vote for, 41.5% support Huang Shijie and 18.5% support Zhang Shanzheng. G5 has not clearly stated who is more suitable to be mayor, but if you ask them who they want to vote for, 15.4% will vote for Huang Shijie and 9.7% will vote for Zhang Shanzheng.
Hu Caiping said with a smile, "Here comes the most exciting part. The G6 group, which has a very high self-esteem and no one is better than me, is here! 19.3% support Huang Shijie and 0.0% support Zhang Shanzheng! Oh my God, my best human beings, who have such high self-esteem, have completely turned to Penguin Abba, help! What the hell happened! Really 0.0% support Zhang Shanzheng, a complete KO."
Hu Caiping emphasized that in the poll, 33.8% were in favor of "changing the mayor to the Democratic Progressive Party", which was higher than the 31% who "remained with the Kuomintang as mayor", showing signs of loosening in the light blue area. She finally shouted, "Please continue to work hard, little penguins, this is entirely your success. It is you who made Huang Shijie come here. Believe me, Taoyuan will win on 11/28. Taoyuan will be turned upside down, just one vote away from you! The only one supported by the mayor of Taoyuan is Huang Shijie, a super academic who fights against creative private houses and crime for you, and vows to eliminate the ghost bus!"
This poll was entrusted by the Trustees Association to Mr. Dai Li'an to be responsible for questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company to conduct telephone interviews. The survey targets people who are registered in Taoyuan City and are over 20 years old. From November 4 to November 6, 1,074 people were successfully interviewed (751 people on residential phones and 323 on mobile phones). The maximum sampling error of the combined sample at a reliability level of 95% is ±3.0%.
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What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Huang Shijie will be accompanied by Shen Boyang for a car sweep sprint on November 13
Very likely · Within days
Open Questions
- What will be the final outcome of the election?
- Can Huang Shijie overtake Zhang Shanzheng in the remaining time?
- Will the actual voting behavior of the "will vote" group be consistent with the polls?







