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Back新竹縣長民調大混戰!「台灣公共政策研究學會」稱徐欣瑩44.4%領先
新竹縣長民調大混戰!「台灣公共政策研究學會」稱徐欣瑩44.4%領先
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自由时报28 minutes agoPolitics2 min readChinaView translation

新竹縣長民調大混戰!「台灣公共政策研究學會」稱徐欣瑩44.4%領先

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新竹縣長選舉民調出現大混戰,年代民調中心顯示民進黨候選人鄭朝方獲36.9%支持度,領先國民黨徐欣瑩約8.3個百分點;台灣公共政策研究學會則顯示徐欣瑩44.4%支持度,領先鄭朝方37.5%。兩位候選人均回應民調僅供參考,並呼籲選民支持廉能陽光的縣政。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

新竹縣長選舉民調出現大混戰,年代民調中心與台灣公共政策研究學會分別公布不同結果。年代民調中心顯示民進黨候選人鄭朝方獲36.9%支持度,領先國民黨徐欣瑩約8.3個百分點;台灣公共政策研究學會則顯示徐欣瑩44.4%支持度,領先鄭朝方37.5%。民調由李承志律師事務所出資、關鍵調查有限公司執行,調查時間為11月5日至8日,針對設籍於新竹縣且年滿20歲民眾進行調查,以分層比例隨機抽樣法進行住宅電話調查,共完成有效樣本1071人,在95%信心水準下,抽樣誤差在正負2.99個百分點之內。

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徐欣瑩回應表示,民調僅供參考,但她深信新竹縣民絕不希望「金權政治的家族復辟」。

新竹縣長選舉民調大混戰!年代民調中心今(12)日公布最新民調,民進黨候選人鄭朝方獲36.9%支持度,領先國民黨徐欣瑩約8.3個百分點;「台灣公共政策研究學會」也公布民調,指徐欣瑩領先鄭朝方6.9個百分點,徐欣瑩回應,民調僅供參考,但她深信新竹縣民絕不希望「金權政治的家族復辟」,鄉親期盼的是真正有能力、清廉且陽光的縣政團隊。

「台灣公共政策研究學會」新竹縣長選舉民調指稱,徐欣瑩支持度44.4%,鄭朝方的37.5%,無黨籍朱定瑀為3.2%,另有14.9%無法選出。

「台灣公共政策研究學會」說明,該民調交叉分析,竹東與竹北選區成為左右勝負的關鍵。其中在竹東選區,徐欣瑩獲得43.6%支持,領先鄭朝方的32.6%;而在竹北選區,竹北東區徐欣瑩以45.1%領先鄭朝方的38.5%,竹北西區則由鄭朝方以54.5%領先徐欣瑩的32.5%。

此外,民調顯示有43.3%民眾相信竹北市公所前秘書指控鄭朝方父兄「干預市政與霸凌下屬」,35.8%不相信;在操守清廉度方面,42.8%民眾對鄭朝方持不信任態度,31.1%選擇相信。至於外界關注徐欣瑩與宗教界關係的說法,42.2%民眾不相信資源會被特定宗教團體控制,35.5%表示相信。

對此民調數據,鄭朝方競選辦公室表示,今天也有媒體公佈鄭朝方領先的民調,就請選民參考。

徐欣瑩則回應表示,不管民調結果如何,她會繼續勤走基層、緊握每一雙選民的手,爭取大家對廉能、陽光新竹的支持。她也向鄉親喊話,團隊會將各項幸福福利與實質建設傳遞到每一個基層,全力守護新竹縣的未來。

這次最新民調由李承志律師事務所出資、關鍵調查有限公司執行,調查時間為11月5日至8日,針對設籍於新竹縣且年滿20歲民眾進行調查,以分層比例隨機抽樣法進行住宅電話調查,共完成有效樣本1071人,在95%信心水準下,抽樣誤差在正負2.99個百分點之內。

相關新聞請見:

新竹縣長最新民調!鄭朝方36.9%擴大領先 自豪政績經得起考驗

對於徐欣瑩領先的民調,鄭朝方競選辦公室表示,今天也有媒體公佈鄭朝方領先的民調,就請選民參考。(記者廖雪茹攝)

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 新竹縣長選舉將持續受到多家民調關注,後續可能出現更多民調結果

    Likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • 兩家民調結果差異的具體原因為何
  • 後續是否還有其他民調機構公布新竹縣長選舉民調
  • 竹東與竹北選區的具體選民構成與投票意願變化

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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