Polling expert Dai Li'an announced the latest poll today (13th). 48.6% of New Taipei City residents believe that DPP candidate Su Qiaohui is suitable to serve as mayor of New Taipei City, an increase of 4.8 percentage points compared with the poll in late August; 35.9% believe that KMT New Taipei mayor candidate Li Sichuan is suitable and 33.5% are not suitable.
The poll showed that 22.3% believed that Su Qiaohui was not suitable, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from late August. Comparing the August polls, it can be seen that the number of People's Party supporters who think Su Qiaohui is suitable increases by 14.2 percentage points, while the number of people who think Su Qiaohui is not suitable increases by 4.6 percentage points. Neutral people's evaluation of their suitability is almost unchanged.
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According to the poll, 35.9% of the people in New Taipei City believe that Li Sichuan is suitable to be the mayor of New Taipei City, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from late August; 33.5% think that Li is not suitable, an increase of 6.5 percentage points from late August.
Huang Qinglong, founding chairman of the Xinmin Association, said that in terms of suitability to be the mayor of New Taipei City, Su Qiaohui has 48.6% and Li Sichuan 35.9%. Su Qiaohui is significantly ahead of Li Sichuan.
In addition, in terms of support, Su Qiaohui has 43.1% and Li Sichuan 30.0%, with Su Qiaohui leading by 13.1 percentage points. Dai Lian said that after the "ocean current" rises, the first area to be affected will be Beibeiji, the second will be the metropolitan area, Taichung and other metropolitan areas will be affected, and the third impact will be other counties and cities.
Dai Lian pointed out that not only the People's Association, but also other organizations are conducting polls. The gap in the polls in some counties and cities will be unimaginably large, but many will not mention it to the outside world because it will arouse a sense of crisis in the other camp and also cause an impact on the election.
Dallion mentioned that between now and before the vote, each camp will probably talk about the election situation five or five times. The camp with a high chance of winning does not want to inflame the opponent's camp's sense of crisis, and urges its supporters to come out to vote, and may even play emergency cards.
Dai Lian analyzed that in this New Taipei City poll, Su Qiaohui led by 13.1 percentage points. The pan-green people were very enthusiastic and had a very high rate of expressing their opinions, a bit like the 2020 general election. Therefore, the "spiral of silence" phenomenon will also form in the pan-blue or white camp, so there will be some differences in the positions of the political parties.
Su Qiaohui's support increases. Dai Li'an: Take some votes out of Li Sichuan's pocket
After cross-analysis, in terms of support, Dai Lian said that 43.1% of this survey said they would vote for Su Qiaohui, an increase of 7.9 percentage points compared with late August, and even 11 percentage points more for "females". Su Qiaohui has made gains in the "blue zone", which is equivalent to taking some votes out of Li Sichuan's pocket.
Dai Li'an emphasized that the increase in Su Qiaohui's support did not all come from the middle voters, but also from the blue camp. In terms of age, the ages of 20 to 29, 40 to 49, and 60 to 69 also contribute a lot to Su Qiaohui's support, and even the "iron ticket" of the Kuomintang is turning around.
According to the poll, Li Sichuan's support rate is 30.0%, which is 4.7 percentage points lower than in late August. 1.5% would vote for independent Su Huihuang, 9.5% said they would not vote or cast a spoiled vote, and 15.8% did not answer clearly.
This poll was entrusted by the Trustees Association to Mr. Dai Li'an to be responsible for the questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted the telephone interviews. From October 6 to October 8, the survey targets were people registered in New Taipei City and over the age of 20. 1,073 people were successfully interviewed (750 people on residential phones and 323 on mobile phones). The maximum sampling error of the combined sample at a reliability level of 95% was ±3.0%.
