The Mexican “southern neighbor” is an influential factor... whether with the presence of the “wall” or its absence

All analytical readings of the results of these midterm elections show that the Latino vote was the primary weight, which tipped the balance in favor of the Democrats in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. It also became clear that this voice, which recorded a high rate of abstention in the previous elections, has today become a major player in the American political scene, if it mobilizes all of its rapidly growing energies. Maria Teresa Comar, president of the organization that encourages Latino communities to participate in American political life, says: “For years, we have been anticipating that a day will come when the Latino voice will blow, like a tsunami, onto the American political scene... and we can say today that the path to the White House has become, as of now, dependent on this voice.”

Also, The New York Times had expected that the Latino vote would be decisive in determining the results of the midterm elections, especially for the renewal of House seats in the states of California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas, and even for Senate seats in some states. This is what actually happened last Tuesday, especially in the state of Texas, which can be considered the main address of this historic shift in the compass of the Latino voice.

It is worth noting that early last month, President Donald Trump received a delegation of Latino community leaders at the White House. In that meeting, the president asked them to mobilize the Latino vote to support Republican Party candidates, “as if his name were on the ballot slips.”

But the results produced by last Tuesday's elections confirmed the expectations that indicated a radical change in the mood of the Latino voter, who - regardless of the deterioration of the living situation for months - began to sense in the US administration's policy a kind of racist provocation directed specifically against him. This began with the campaign of arrests and expulsions that targeted immigrants from Latin American countries, to the military operation that ended with the kidnapping of the Venezuelan president and his wife and the seizure of the country’s oil wealth, passing through the repeated hostile statements by the American President.

In addition, the fact that the expulsion of large numbers of illegal immigrants - most of whom are seasonal workers from Latin American countries - has caused severe damage to the economic situation in basic sectors, such as agriculture and construction. Such sectors are usually filled with immigrant labor of Latin origins. The first data indicate that the percentage of Latino votes that moved from the Republican camp to the Democratic Party candidates in these elections amounted to 15 percent.

In short, based on the results of the states that were traditionally calculated for the Republicans and have now moved to the Democrats, the Latino vote was a clear rejection of Donald Trump’s policy, as happened in the state of Texas, where the Latino component constitutes 40 percent of the population, and to which the influential Republican Senator Ted Cruz belongs.

In Texas, the Democrats recorded a very important double victory, the first represented by the arrival of the first Latin American woman to the position of governor of the state, Gina Hinohosa, who for months ago was an unknown woman, but she will become the most powerful woman in the United States as of the beginning of next year, when she assumes her position as governor of the second largest state in the country.

As for the second “Latin” victory that Texas witnessed, it came from one of the main battles for the Senate seat... as the young Democrat James Tallarico achieved a landslide victory over his Republican rival, Ken Paxton, who is known for his extreme loyalty to President Trump.

For your information, Talarico built his election campaign on a package of economic promises, such as ensuring access to health insurance within the reach of the middle class, and solutions to reduce the cost of living. He also promised to support a project to amend the immigration law and facilitate the regularization of the status of illegal immigrants who have been residing and working in the United States for years.

It was noteworthy what thousands of voters did in Houston, the largest city in Texas, last Tuesday when they were heading, after casting their votes at the polling stations, to the shrine of the Mexican immigrant Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, who was shot dead by a member of the forces charged with arresting and expelling illegal immigrants. There, at the shrine, they left a piece of paper on which was written: “I cast my vote.”

In California, the largest US state in terms of population, the “Latino” candidate Javier Becerra reached the governorship of the state. The first analyzes of the final results confirm that the votes of Latinos, who in the United States are called “Hispanos,” were the demographic bloc that witnessed the largest shift in their voting direction during these elections. The percentage of additional votes that the Latino bloc gave to the Democrats was 24 percent more than what it gave them in the 2024 elections. The percentage of the Latino vote that supported the Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives this time was 69 percent, compared to 30 percent for the Republicans, noting that the shift that the Latino vote witnessed two years ago was decisive in returning Donald Trump to the White House.

In a related context, since the beginning of the midterm election campaign, it has become clear that the Latin bloc is the one that has attracted the greatest effort from the Republican and Democratic parties to win it over, because it usually records the highest percentage of abstentions from voting, and is the fastest growing among the other demographic blocs.

In fact, some Republican candidates sensed the extent of the dissatisfaction prevailing among Latinos with the policy of the current Republican administration, especially on the issue of immigration, so they deliberately distanced themselves from this policy.

This is what Maria Elvira Salazar, candidate for the Republican Party’s House of Representatives in Florida, did when, weeks before the midterm elections, she took the initiative to criticize Trump’s policy and announced her support for regularizing the status of illegal immigrants who have been living for years in Florida, without Congress’ approval to grant them permanent residency... This position had a major impact on her victory.

However, some analysts focus on saying that the majority of Latino voters lack a solid partisan identity, and that this is what prompted them to give the Democrats wide support in the recent elections yesterday, after they played an essential role two years ago in Trump’s victory, and thus his return to the White House. Here, they point out that this phenomenon has its exceptions, such as immigrants from the “Cuban diaspora,” who are committed to the right and always support the Republicans. Perhaps one of the most well-known faces of the “Cuban diaspora” in the state of Florida is the current US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a former member of the Florida Senate, and one of the most prominent faces of the Latino right.

In conclusion, in 2024, Donald Trump obtained unprecedented support from the Latino community that almost equaled the support that Kamala Harris received, and this was achieved thanks to the strong mobilization carried out by the Latino community in Florida, in addition to the voices of those dissatisfied with the Democratic Party for various reasons. However, as previously noted, in the recent midterm elections, the bulk of those gains moved to the Democratic camp due to deep dissatisfaction with the current administration’s policy. Polls have recorded a very high percentage of dissatisfaction among Latinos compared to the national average, reaching 68 percent on the eve of the elections. Data indicate that 60 percent of Latino voters in the midterm elections chose a Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives, exactly the opposite of what happened in the 2024 elections.

In practice, Netanyahu's loss was significant in terms of shares in his camp (from 68 to 53 seats). The Shas party also declined from 11 seats to 6 seats, which is considered a collapse. This party, which previously attracted most of the Eastern Jewish votes and reached 17 seats, is today suffering from a crisis of confidence with the leadership. It is a party of poverty and the poor, with tens of thousands working in its schools, but there is no monitoring of its accounts. Its fans accuse the leaders of corruption (this party, along with the Haredi Ashkenazi Party, receives 11 billion shekels); Because citizens, including party members, do not feel this money.

The two extremist wings of the settlers also lost some of their strength. Together they won 14 seats in the previous elections, and have now fallen to 13 (Smotrich fell from 8 to 6 seats, and Ben Gvir rose from 6 to 7 seats, knowing that the polls were giving Ben Gvir 9 and 10 seats two months ago).

The right-wing parties accuse Netanyahu of running an organized campaign in the last week of the electoral battle whose goal is to become the largest party, and for this purpose he “siphoned” tens of thousands of votes from it and caused its strength to diminish.

On the other hand, Eisenkot was able to convince the public, even partially, that he was the best person to defeat Netanyahu. Although his party is only 13 months old, and he personally lacks the charisma required for the Israeli street, he was able to storm the strongholds of “Likud” and some of the citadels of the religious parties, and won 21 seats, and consolidated his position as the largest opposition party, despite the fact that his allies in the camp (Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman) refused to accept him as head of the camp, and prevented him from appearing as its candidate to head the government. Even after the semi-official results appear, they do not announce that they will recommend to the head of state that he be assigned to form the government. He will have to conduct negotiations with them on the matter.

As for the “Bayahad” party, which had 24 seats, it fell to only 12 seats, even though the polls gave it 14 seats in the last week. While Lieberman won 7 seats (he had 6 seats), after winning 12 seats in the polls in recent months.

On the other hand, the Arabs were the surprise of the elections, whether that was in the percentage of votes (which reached 80 percent), or the number of seats (they jumped from 10 seats to 19 seats). Thus, they contributed strongly to overthrowing the Netanyahu government, responding to attempts at repression, suppression, marginalization, and racism, and they showed a remarkable presence in the political arena.

Also, by entering the electoral battle with two lists; “The Joint Party” (which includes three parties), and “The Unified Party” (which includes the “Islamic Movement” that allied itself with a former senior police officer), managed to avoid wasting a single vote. Indeed, they delivered a loud message to the Jewish community that they fearlessly confront racist rhetoric against them, stressing that they do not impose harsh conditions on Eisenkot.

On the other hand, it is not yet known how Mansour Abbas responded to Netanyahu’s proposal, but he met with Yair Golan and spoke to Lapid and those close to Eisenkot. He affirmed his commitment to the steps decided to dismiss the Speaker of the Knesset. If he is able to hold a meeting with Netanyahu or someone close to him, and the matter is revealed to the media, Eisenkot will help form a government based on the Arabs (a section from within the government and a section from outside it).

What is noteworthy here is that the “Democrats” party - even though it won only 8 seats - came out forcefully to work, and met with Lapid and Abbas in an attempt to move towards forming a minority government, which includes the “Unified Arab List.” He says: “We have 55 representatives with the Unified List, compared to Netanyahu’s camp, which consists of 53 representatives. We have a reserve represented in the Joint List, with 11 deputies. That is, it stands as a barrier to any attempt by Netanyahu to overthrow the government. Thus, in summary, the election results showed the following: First: the failure of the polls. Second: Netanyahu’s failure; It has lost a fifth of the strength of its far-right camp, and is unable to return to forming a purely right-wing government. Third: Israel is still suffering from a leadership crisis. There is no “charismatic” leader who can win the public to his side, like Ben Gurion, Menachem Begin, Ariel Sharon, or even Ehud Barak. Fourth: Today, the right-wing public is waiting for Netanyahu to succeed in his campaign against the Arabs to prevent Eisenkot from forming a government with them. On the other hand, the center-right public and the liberals are waiting for Eisenkot to strengthen his strength and form a stable government. He now has 67 deputies ready to crown him prime minister.