Ukraine has faced pressure this week from Trump and restrictions on the use of key satellite systems. Europe is struggling to shoulder more of Kiev's funding gap, and the European version of Starlink has not yet come online, highlighting that without various U.S. aid, Ukraine may not be able to survive.
The New York Times pointed out that Kyiv has suffered successive setbacks within a week, making the situation even worse. First, U.S. President Trump blamed Kiev for the rise in diesel prices and asked Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries. He also temporarily lifted U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel and even called for a new president in Ukraine.
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By mid-week, the Ukrainian army discovered that the Starshield system that the Ukrainian army relied on for operations was suddenly restricted for unknown reasons. Starshield is the military version of the satellite network system Starlink and is crucial to Ukraine's battlefield communications.
Elon Musk, who has had a close and sometimes distant relationship with Trump, hinted that only the U.S. military, and ultimately Trump himself, has the authority to restrict the use of Star Shields. Musk, CEO of SpaceX, which operates Starlink, also called on Ukraine to elect a new president.
Zelensky was restrained at first, but later angrily criticized Trump for openly siding with Russia, which made him feel betrayed. He ignored Trump's announcement of a Russian-Ukrainian energy ceasefire, saying that Ukraine would resume attacking Russian refineries, and told reporters that Ukraine was losing U.S. support. Trump immediately fired back, saying in an interview that Zelensky was "not a good person to deal with."
The New York Times analyzed that the worst-case scenario for Ukraine would be for Trump and the Pentagon to decide to suspend military aid to Ukraine. Ukraine relies on Star Shields, funded by the Pentagon, to maintain communications on the front lines. It also relies on the United States to provide military intelligence, provide early warning of upcoming missile attacks, and assist the Ukrainian military in identifying targets and executing long-range strikes.
In addition, Ukraine also relies heavily on U.S. weapons including spare parts for F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defense interceptor missiles. After Trump returned the blame, he demanded that Europe assist in purchasing weapons to assist Ukraine.
Nico Lange, a former German Defense Ministry official and current senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), pointed out that although European countries also provide intelligence to Ukraine, they are completely unable to match the impact of U.S. intelligence support.
U.S. intelligence can provide advance warning of incoming Russian military patrols and ballistic missile attacks. Once Ukraine is unable to know in advance that missiles are about to strike, and lacks Patriot missiles to intercept them, the consequences will be disastrous. In addition, the supply of ammunition for US-made air defense systems is currently tight, mainly due to the large amount of reserves consumed by the war in Iran.
Ukraine this week had its first taste of the consequences of the cessation of US aid. Ukraine said that before the two waves of Russian missile attacks on Kiev on the 13th and 14th, Ukraine did not receive any warning until the missile approach alarm was sounded. Then there was an abnormality in the Star Shield system, which hindered the Ukrainian army's use of drones and other operations.
POLITICO political news network pointed out that when the Trump administration is no longer stable and reliable, the EU faces pressure to fill the gap in Ukraine's loss of Starlink support. However, the IRIS2 satellite system, independently planned by the European Union and capable of matching Starlink, is not expected to be launched until 2030.
Zelenskiy said at the two-day EU summit today that Kyiv needs to provide at least an additional 70 billion euros for defense and strengthening resilience. However, EU leaders are at odds with each other on issues such as climate, immigration and even Ukraine's long-term financial needs, and there is no conclusion. Zelensky, who attended the summit in person, did not achieve many tangible results except for warm embraces and friendly words.
The British "Financial Times" pointed out that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Ukraine has a funding gap of 70 billion euros, and the EU plans to cover two-thirds of it.
However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that relevant issues need to be discussed at the next round of EU leaders' summit in November and December. It has not yet been decided whether the EU will provide a new loan to Ukraine through borrowing (similar to the 90 billion euro loan reached by the EU last year).
