Saudi Arabia explores ceasefire conditions, Yemen youth movement seeks $51 billion in compensation

According to a Wall Street Journal report on the 4th, the Yemeni youth movement (Houthi) has requested US$51 billion in compensation from Saudi Arabia as a condition for the cessation of hostilities, leaving Saudi Arabia to face difficult choices in the more than ten-year conflict in Yemen.

The report pointed out that after the youth movement attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea and occupied a strategic location controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi Arabia proactively contacted the youth movement to inquire about ceasefire conditions. The youth movement demands US$51 billion in compensation for years of military strikes and blockade losses, and demands that Saudi Arabia formally recognize it as the ruling authority in Yemen, which is tantamount to accepting forces supported by Iranian armed forces stationed on the southern border.

Since the summer of this year, the youth movement has launched a series of attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities and airports, and has advanced towards Aden, the seat of Yemen's internationally recognized government. It is currently approaching about 80 kilometers, the closest distance since 2015. In October, the youth movement launched almost daily attacks in Saudi Arabia, targeting civilian airports and facilities of Saudi Aramco, the state-run oil company. In Yemen, the youth movement also targeted areas where coalition forces may gather. An attack in Shabwa Province killed at least 75 people and injured more than 200 people, making it the most serious casualty since the restart of the civil war.

Ulrikson, an expert at Rice University, said that the youth movement has deep roots and the cost of a war of attrition is much lower than that of Saudi Arabia.

Saudi officials revealed that Crown Prince Mohammed. Salman recognized that the situation was serious, but he was unwilling to negotiate without a battlefield advantage. He was also worried that sending ground troops would cause heavy casualties and trigger domestic dissatisfaction.

Medhaj, a Yemeni analyst and co-founder of the Sana Strategic Research Center, said: "The demands of the youth movement are very large, but in my assessment, finance is probably the least of Saudi Arabia's worries. The bigger problem is setting a precedent - allowing the youth movement to threaten military escalation at any time when it needs more concessions or money."

Analysts believe that if Saudi Arabia wants to increase pressure on the battlefield, it must rely on the assistance of its allies, but its options are currently quite limited.

The United Arab Emirates withdrew from its anti-Youth Movement operations in December last year; Saudi Arabia turned to Turkey and Pakistan for assistance through the Mecca Convention, but the Turkish Congress has not yet approved it, and Pakistan refused to participate in the military operation in Yemen. The Egyptian Congress approved military support in October, but President Sisi stated that it was only for defensive tasks, and the United States did not provide direct support. Analysts pointed out that Saudi Arabia faces multiple threats from Iran in the east, Shiite militias in northern Iraq, and youth movements in the south. It is difficult to reverse the situation with air strikes alone, but it currently lacks ground troops to exert pressure.