US think tank scholar: China and Russia may take stronger actions if they believe Trump's power is declining

(Central News Agency, Washington, 5th Comprehensive Foreign News Report) Kagan, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, pointed out that after the Democratic Party wins control of both houses of the U.S. Congress, if Russia and China believe that U.S. President Trump’s political influence has weakened and his political career is gradually coming to an end, Russia and China may take stronger actions in the next two years.

Robert Kagan told the US financial news network CNBC that the US-Iran war also exposed the US's "considerable lack" of military energy, which is crucial to the situation in Asia.

"Everyone can see how much our inventory of interceptor and other missiles has been depleted, and these weapons are critical to the Asian theater of operations," he said.

A report by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the conflict has consumed as much as two-thirds of the U.S. missile defense interception weapons since June last year, mainly because the U.S. is assisting Israel in defending against Iranian attacks. This may keep U.S. weapons inventories tight for years to come.

The senior fellow at the Brookings Institution said that the deployment of three aircraft carriers by the United States to the Middle East has reduced the number of U.S. naval forces that can be deployed in Asia, which may give China more room to take strong actions in the region.

He said: "I think the only thing Trump is interested in right now is reaching an economic and trade agreement with China. I don't think he really intends to confront China, but this will lead to China being more aggressive."

In December last year, Trump approved an arms sale to Taiwan worth about US$11 billion, but later suspended another arms sale worth about US$14 billion. U.S. law stipulates that the United States must provide Taiwan with the means it needs to defend itself.

Former US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed the People's Liberation Army to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. However, Burns also emphasized that this does not mean that Xi Jinping has decided to launch aggression in 2027 or any other time.

The United States, China and Russia are discussing whether to arrange a trilateral summit between Trump, Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit in Shenzhen later this month.