A series of attacks on ships in the Black Sea approaches NATO! Russia is testing the red line; countries on its eastern flank are in urgent need of air defense weapons

A cockpit picture of a Romanian Air Force F-16 fighter jet performing an interception mission, with a glowing trail visible outside the aircraft. The Romanian Ministry of Defense stated that the mission was to intercept and deal with two drones that entered Romanian airspace without authorization on October 17. (Reuters)

Merchant ships in the Black Sea were attacked one after another, and the war gradually approached NATO's eastern flank. Since October, many ships have been attacked in waters near NATO member countries Romania and Bulgaria, and NATO subsequently announced the deployment of additional patrol aircraft and drones on alert. Security analysts warn that Russia may be taking advantage of Western concerns about avoiding an escalation of the conflict to test the bottom line of NATO's response.

Reuters reported that there were seven attacks in October involving civilian cargo ships near Romania and Bulgaria; last week, a Greek container ship was sunk by a naval drone in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. Maritime security company Ambrey pointed out that the appearance of the drone involved was highly similar to the Russian military model; Kaushal, a senior researcher at the Royal United Military Institute (RUSI), a London think tank, described this as a substantial escalation of the situation.

Faced with the accusations, Russia denied targeting Ukraine's neighboring countries. Romania accused the Russian military of systematically attacking civilian ships, but it has not formally blamed Russia until forensic evidence was obtained. Joja, director of the Black Sea project at the Middle East Institute (MEI), a think tank in Washington, pointed out that Russia is testing the West's red line and believes that the West will adopt a mild defense as much as possible to avoid further escalation of the conflict.

NATO's eastern flank defense needs are rising sharply

NATO officials emphasized that the commitment to the defense of all member states is "unwavering" and plans to invest more than $40 billion in the next five years to strengthen anti-drone defenses. However, the gap in the frontline defense of the Black Sea still causes anxiety; Romanian officials are worried that the European and American military focus is too much on the Baltic Sea, resulting in the neglect of Black Sea defense, and there is an urgent need for more air defense interception weapons and radar systems.

A series of attacks has severely damaged Black Sea shipping. According to Ambre's statistics, from May to October this year, a total of 317 ships of various types were attacked in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, an increase of more than four times compared with the previous half-year period. The damage to the port triggered a plunge in grain exports. Russia's grain exports to the sea in September dropped to 300,000 metric tons from 4.74 million metric tons in the same period last year; Ukraine's exports also fell from 2.1 million metric tons to 810,000 metric tons. Ukrainian President Zelensky warned that if the shipping crisis continues, it may trigger a serious food crisis in the next one to two months.