Two wars attack the global diesel market. Which one is more lethal? Foreign media reveals key differences. (Bloomberg)
[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] Which one, the war in Iran or the war in Ukraine, has a greater impact on global diesel prices? Both wars hit energy markets, but in different ways that affected diesel supplies. The latest analysis points out that the direct impact of the US-Iran war on global diesel supply is more obvious, mainly due to the obstruction of the export of refined oil products in the Persian Gulf. Even if crude oil transportation gradually resumes in the near future, diesel export volume is still far below the pre-war level.
According to the "BBC" report, after the outbreak of the US-Iraq war, diesel exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman have dropped from approximately 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 to approximately 670,000 barrels per day in September 2026, a drop of as much as 52%.
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This change shows that the current problems facing the global diesel market are not only the rise in international crude oil prices, but also the significant reduction in the amount of diesel that has been refined and can be directly supplied to the market. The Middle East has always been an important global supply center for refined oil products, and the Strait of Hormuz is a key channel for transporting local fuel to the international market.
Reports pointed out that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was severely disrupted due to factors such as Iran's attack on oil tankers and the United States' blockade of Iranian ports. However, according to estimates by ship tracking companies, the volume of crude oil shipped through the strait in the past month has gradually approached pre-war levels.
Among them, part of the resumption of crude oil transportation is related to the participation of the U.S. Navy in protecting merchant ships. However, the improvement in crude oil transportation does not mean that the export of refined oil products such as diesel will resume simultaneously. Current diesel exports from the Middle East are still significantly lower than before the war, indicating that obstacles to fuel supply have not yet been lifted.
On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war also put pressure on the global diesel market, but in different ways. Ukraine launched an attack on a Russian oil refinery, causing damage to some refining facilities and reducing fuel production and exports. At the same time, restrictions on Russia's energy supply have also forced the re-adjustment of original trade routes, allowing fuel to flow to other markets.
The main difference between the two wars was the supply disruption. The Russia-Ukraine war mainly affected the international diesel market through damage to oil refining facilities and a reduction in Russian fuel supplies; the U.S.-Iran war directly disrupted the maritime transportation routes for Persian Gulf refined oil products to global markets.
Therefore, although the two wars simultaneously impacted the global diesel trade, the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz directly affected the Middle East, an important refined oil export region. Even though crude oil transportation has been partially restored, the recovery of diesel exports is still quite limited, which also makes the direct impact of the US-Iran war on global diesel supply more prominent.
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