The North Kordofan fronts witnessed a remarkable field transformation, with the Sudanese army announcing the recovery of the strategic city of Sodri in North Kordofan state, after battles with the Rapid Support Forces, which strengthened its presence and control in the state, and reduced the scope of the Rapid Support’s deployment, thus changing the battle map in the state in favor of the army.
The ground advance coincided with the escalation of the drone war, as the state authorities announced the killing of two people and wounding about 20 in attacks they accused the “Rapid Support” of carrying out on Al-Obeid, while the “Establishment” coalition accused the army of a strike on Al-Mazroub that left 9 dead and 24 injured, without independent verification of the two stories.
In parallel with the escalation, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said that more than 400 Sudanese are crossing into eastern Chad daily, an increase of nearly 20 times the rates recorded in recent months, to escape fighting, bombing, and drone attacks.
The war in Sudan witnessed rapid developments on the military and humanitarian tracks, with the army announcing the recovery of the strategic city of Sodri in North Kordofan, and the escalation of mutual attacks by drones and civilian casualties in El Obeid and Mazroub, at a time when the United Nations revealed a sharp increase in the number of Sudanese fleeing to Chad, coinciding with intense diplomatic movements by Foreign Minister Muhyiddin Salem in New York, where the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, warned of the devastating repercussions of the war and the danger Its extension to the countries of the region.
The official spokesman for the armed forces said, in a statement on Friday evening, that the army forces and their allied forces “liberated” the city of Soudre after battles with the “Rapid Support Forces,” which he said caused losses in their ranks of lives and equipment. The Rapid Support Forces did not immediately comment on the army’s announcement, while pictures and videos circulated on social media platforms showed members of the army and the Joint Force celebrating inside the city. It was not possible to independently verify the overall field developments or the size of the losses announced by the army.
Soudari gains military importance because of its location on roads linking the regions of North Kordofan to the west of the state and Darfur. Controlling it also allows the army to expand its scope of deployment north and northwest of El Obeid, after a series of operations during which it achieved progress in a number of towns in recent weeks.
The progress in Sodre coincided with the escalation of the drone war. On Friday, Al-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, was attacked by drones, and the state government and its security committee said that “Rapid Support” drones targeted a center for sheltering displaced persons and civilian and service sites, killing two people and wounding about 20 others.
According to witnesses, the attacks affected northern and central Al-Obeid, including a center to shelter the displaced near the police hospital, a gas station, a passenger bus, and a house in the Arafat neighborhood. There was no immediate comment from Rapid Support on the accusations, while platforms supporting it circulated news of the bombing of the city.
On the other side of the battle lines, the Sudanese Founding Alliance, “Tassis”, allied with “Rapid Support”, accused the army of carrying out a drone strike on Al-Mazroub, which it said resulted in the death of nine civilians and the wounding of 24 others. The army did not confirm that the strike was carried out, and it was not possible to independently verify the source of the drone or the death toll.
A new wave of displacement
The military developments coincided with a sharp increase in the number of Sudanese fleeing across the border into Chad. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said that more than 400 Sudanese cross daily into eastern Chad, an increase of about 20 times compared to the rate recorded during the past few months.
Reuters quoted the Regional Coordinator for Refugees, Mamadou Diagne Balde, as saying that the new arrivals spoke of fleeing fighting, aerial bombardment, and drone attacks, and that the new wave comes especially from Darfur, Kordofan, and the Blue Nile.
Since the beginning of the year, more than 55,000 Sudanese have crossed into Chad, while the number of Sudanese who have sought refuge there since the outbreak of war in April 2023 is close to one million people.
The humanitarian response, in turn, faces a severe funding crisis. The UNHCR said it had received only 18 percent of the $1.6 billion it needed for the regional response, threatening its ability to provide food and shelter and move refugees to safer areas.
Movements in New York
In New York, Sudanese Foreign Minister Mohieldin Salem intensified his meetings on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings, and discussed with international and UN officials the war, the humanitarian situation, and paths to a political settlement.
Salem met with the Chairman of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssef, and the two sides discussed efforts to stop the war, protect civilians, and deliver humanitarian aid, while the Chairman of the Commission affirmed the African Union’s support for Sudan’s unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and a comprehensive political process led by the Sudanese.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs also held discussions with the Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations to Sudan, Pekka Haavisto, and UN officials concerned with the humanitarian file.
In his most prominent meetings, Salem met with the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, who, according to the official UN statement, expressed “deep concern” about the continuation of the conflict and its devastating impact on civilians, and warned of the danger of the war spreading further into the region.
Guterres stressed the need to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches those in need, and the urgent need to stop hostilities and push towards a comprehensive political process led by the Sudanese.
The Sudan News Agency said that Salem briefed the Secretary-General on developments in the situation, and stressed the government’s continued cooperation with the United Nations and international and regional organizations and the provision of the necessary facilities for the flow of aid.
SUNA also quoted Guterres as expressing his regret that the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, did not obtain a visa to enter the United States to participate in the General Assembly meetings. But the official UN statement about the meeting did not address the visa issue, and focused on the war, the humanitarian situation, the cessation of hostilities, and the political track.
New Egyptian messages regarding the Ethiopian “Renaissance Dam” crisis, delivered by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, before the United Nations General Assembly, adhering to his country’s right to “defend its water security under unilateral measures.”
Madbouly’s speech at the UN forum comes after sharp statements from the Minister of Irrigation, Hani Sweilem, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Badr Abdel Ati. Experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat see it as part of an Egyptian escalation that carries clear demands regarding the dam crisis, expecting “not to revive negotiations between the two countries in light of the Ethiopian internal crises and Ethiopian stubbornness.”
The experts stressed that “Cairo will continue to explain its vision, which will gain it African and international spaces that support its positions, even if it reaches the point of defending its right to protect water security.”
Negotiations took place between Cairo and Addis Ababa for nearly a decade, and it was decided to freeze them for a period of 3 years before resuming them in 2023, then freezing them again in 2024, amid Ethiopia’s refusal to conclude an agreement, and its assertion that it does not harm Egypt or Sudan, the two downstream countries.
Madbouly said, in a speech, on Friday evening, before the UN platform, that his country’s water security is “an existential issue that cannot be compromised,” stressing that “transboundary water resources must be an area of cooperation, not conflict, and that political will and good intentions are necessary for integration between water security and development.”
He stressed that Egypt does not oppose the development efforts of other countries, but it defends a “fair” principle based on some parties not basing their development on harming others, calling for cooperation, good neighborliness, and reaching binding agreements in accordance with international law that achieve the interests of everyone, instead of unilateral policies and imposing a fait accompli.
Madbouly stressed that “Egypt retains its legitimate right guaranteed in the United Nations Charter and international law to protect its water security and preserve the existential capabilities of its people.”
During a press conference in front of 80 foreign correspondents, about a week ago, the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation confirmed that the Ethiopian dam is “illegitimate,” pointing out that “all legitimate options remain available to the Egyptian state,” stressing that it “will not turn a blind eye to its existential interests in the Nile River, and will not accept the illusions of controlling and controlling the water flows of the two downstream countries.”
Last August, Egypt affirmed more than once that the water issue is “national security and a red line,” according to a statement by an official source reported by the Egyptian News Agency. The Egyptian Foreign Minister also hinted at using the “right of legitimate defense” regarding developments in the Nile River file and the “Renaissance Dam” crisis.
The expert in African affairs, Ramadan Qarni, believes that the Egyptian position regarding the issue of water security and the “Renaissance Dam” “has witnessed a decisive shift during the recent period by adopting a frank diplomatic and media tone that reveals the unilateral Ethiopian policies.”
He stressed that Egypt’s speech before the United Nations General Assembly “was decisive and strict in confirming this and adhering to its legitimate and internationally guaranteed right to defend its water security in all available ways and means, whether through diplomatic and legal tools, or other comprehensive power tools in its broad sense in international relations.”
Asmaa Al-Husseini, an expert in African affairs, points out that the Prime Minister’s speech “contained decisive messages emphasizing the firm Egyptian position rejecting the Ethiopian fait accompli policy regarding the Renaissance Dam,” stressing that Egypt’s right to defend its water security “is an existential right that cannot be compromised.”
She pointed out that the escalation of the Egyptian tone in international forums “reflects a firm and principled position that refutes the aggressive Ethiopian rhetoric trying to control the waters of the Blue Nile,” and confirms that “Egyptian and Sudanese concerns are real positions, not allegations.”
Over the course of about two months, Egypt directed its messages to Ethiopia, in exchange for an escalation by Addis Ababa in its media platforms against Cairo. Amid this exchange, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Taiani announced Rome’s readiness to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia to reach a solution to the water crisis between the two countries.
Qarni believes that “the continuation of the status quo is the most likely scenario in the interim as Egypt continues to renew its firm position not to oppose development in Ethiopia, provided that it fully adheres to the rules of international law, historical charters, and approved negotiating frameworks.”
He attributed “the inability to revive negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia in light of what he described as Addis Ababa’s adherence to a unilateral approach and hostile rhetoric, as well as with the renewal of armed conflicts in the Amhara, Tigray, and Afar regions.” Which makes putting the internal house in order a priority for the Ethiopian decision-maker, and the international community’s preoccupation with the regional crises in the Middle East, Gaza, and the Russian-Ukrainian war.”
Al-Husseini points out that “in light of the Ethiopian lack of response, Egypt will follow a peaceful and legal approach by turning to international institutions such as the Security Council, and strengthening direct cooperation with the Nile Basin countries.” This contributes in the long term to gaining the international community’s understanding of its legitimate demands or taking appropriate action to defend its right to protect water security.”
