
Israel is targeting towns in southern Lebanon outside the “yellow line” through bombings and artillery and air strikes, emptying them of residents and turning them into burned areas devoid of civilian facilities, as part of a long-term occupation plan, while the Syrian authorities are carrying out arrest campaigns for former air force officers accused of bombing populated areas during the war.
AI-generated summary
This escalation comes in light of the second anniversary of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, and in the context of the continuation of Syrian security campaigns against former Air Force officers accused of bombing populated areas during the Syrian war, while Israel seeks to expand its buffer zone in southern Lebanon beyond the “yellow line” by destroying towns and displacing their residents.
Israel is preparing for a long-term occupation in southern Lebanon, where it has created a buffer zone outside the “yellow line,” which is a scorched land in which residents do not reside, and does not include any homes or civilian facilities.
A security source in southern Lebanon told Asharq Al-Awsat that targeting those towns located in contact with the “yellow line,” expelling residents from them and turning them into destroyed and dangerous areas “means that Israel is planning to thwart any attempt to use them to launch operations against its forces in the occupied region in the south.”
Meanwhile, opponents of Hezbollah revealed that it is suffering from a leadership crisis after the assassination of its former Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, and today (Sunday) the party is commemorating the second anniversary of his assassination.
The party did not succeed in compensating him after it turned the General Secretariat into a center of political, organizational, military and popular gravity.
In a remarkable security development, the Syrian security authorities announced the implementation of a series of operations as part of a wide campaign to pursue former Air Force officers, which resulted in the arrest of 16 officers, including commanders, within less than a month. The arrests took place in particular in the governorates of Latakia and Tartous, on the Syrian coast, as well as in the Aleppo governorate in the north of the country.
On Saturday, the official Syrian News Channel quoted a source in the Counter-Terrorism Department confirming the arrest of the pilot, Khaldoun Hussein Mubarak, in the countryside of the city of Jableh in Latakia Governorate. According to reports in local media, he was arrested at his home in the village of Ain Qita in the Jableh countryside, on Friday.
Pilot Mubarak had survived the shooting down of his plane in 2020, and the official media of the former Syrian regime reported that his plane had fallen near the city of Saraqeb in Idlib Governorate, as a result of being targeted by Turkish aircraft. Activists rebroadcast an interview with Mubarak in which he confirmed, after his survival, that he would continue his military missions, even if he was repeatedly targeted more than once.
Pilot Khaldoun Hussein Mubarak is the sixteenth pilot to be arrested in less than a month. On September 18, the Commander of Internal Security in Tartous Governorate, Colonel Abdel-Al Muhammad Abdel-Al, announced the implementation of a series of precise security operations, in cooperation with the Counter-Terrorism Department, which led to the arrest of 5 senior officers in the former Air Force, namely: Major General Muhammad Fajr Ali, Brigadier General Pilot Abdullah Ali Mualla, Colonel Pilot Staff Nidal Hussein Saleh, Colonel Muhammad Ali Salim, and Pilot Lieutenant Colonel Talib Abdul Karim Hassan. Their arrest was based on suspicion of their involvement in planning, managing and implementing aerial bombardments targeting “populated areas” during the war, according to what the Internal Security Commander announced. Pointing out that investigations are continuing to determine their criminal responsibilities for the raids and violations attributed to them, in preparation for referring them to the competent judiciary in accordance with legal procedures.
This was preceded by the internal security announcement in Latakia Governorate, on the 10th of the same month, of the arrest of 9 pilots, namely: Brigadier General Manhal Anwar Saleh, Brigadier General Sami Ibrahim Mahmoud, Brigadier General Ghayath Ali Al-Rahiya, Colonel Issa Izz al-Din Khadour, Colonel Marwan Salah Nafesh, Colonel Bashar Samir Wannous, Lieutenant Colonel Ayham Hamza Alia, Captain Ayham Ahmed Daoud, and Captain Ammar Issa Junaidi. As published by the security forces through their official accounts.
The Commander of Internal Security in Latakia Governorate, Brigadier General Abdul Aziz Al-Ahmad, said that investigations showed “their participation in committing crimes and violations against the Syrian people in a number of governorates, taking advantage of their military positions and their specialization in military aviation and helicopters, and the accompanying bombing and targeting operations that led to large numbers of casualties, including dead and wounded, causing damage to cities and towns, displacing people, and destroying homes, facilities, and civilian facilities.”
The nine pilots recorded more than 3,200 flight hours and sorties during the years of the revolution, according to a source in the Syrian Ministry of Interior, who said that investigations indicated that they carried out air strikes in which they used different types of attack helicopters and jet fighters that “targeted many areas, especially Eastern Ghouta, the city of Aleppo and its countryside, Deir ez-Zor and its countryside, and the countryside of Hama,” according to what was reported. The official SANA agency.
On September 5, the Internal Security Forces in Aleppo Governorate revealed the implementation of an operation that led to the arrest of Brigadier General Pilot Hamidi Ali Murad, a senior commander in the Syrian Air Force. During his years of service, he took over the management of several military airports, including Mezzeh Airport in Damascus, T-4 Airport in the eastern countryside of Homs, and Kuweires Airport in eastern Aleppo. In addition to his command of the Air Force College.
The Syrian authorities accuse the arrested pilots of being involved - depending on their position and responsibility - in planning, managing and implementing aerial bombardment operations, and taking advantage of the air force, air bases and field guidance centers to carry out combat raids targeting populated areas, which resulted in the destruction of residential neighborhoods and infrastructure, and the forced displacement of residents, in addition to extensive human losses, according to the Syrian News Agency.
It is noteworthy that the Ministry of the Interior had broadcast last April clips of the confessions of a number of pilots who were arrested last year, most notably the pilot Abdul Karim Ahmed Alia, and Mizer Sawan, nicknamed “the enemy of the two Ghoutas.” The confessions revealed that the use of fighter aircraft against Syrians revolting against Bashar al-Assad's regime began in 2013, that is, two years after the outbreak of protests. The confessions also confirmed Bashar al-Assad's direct intervention in determining the targets for the aerial bombardment.
The Israeli army intensified its military measures aimed at transforming the strip of villages adjacent to the “yellow line” in southern Lebanon into a buffer zone outside the line, which is a scorched land in which residents do not reside, and does not include any homes or civilian facilities, amid Lebanese fears that this is part of a plan for a long-term occupation.
Over the course of weeks, the Israeli army carried out dozens of bombings in towns that were not included within the “yellow line” it had drawn for a security zone it designated in southern Lebanon, reaching in some areas 12 kilometers deep into Lebanon from the border.
These bombings affected the towns of Al-Mansouri, Beit Al-Siyad, and Majdal Zoun in the western sector, the towns of Baraashit, Beit Yahoun, and Hadada in the central sector, and the eastern towns of Zawtar, Nabatieh Al-Fawqa, and Kafr Benit in the eastern sector. The army also expanded air strikes and artillery shelling to the towns of Kafr Rumman, the Al-Jabal Al-Rafi’i heights around Nabatieh, Ayta Al-Jabal, Wadi Zebqin, and others.
Planning for a long occupation
Although these towns are located outside the “yellow line,” targeting them, expelling residents from them, and turning them into destroyed and dangerous areas “means that Israel is planning a long-term occupation of the areas it occupies,” a security source in southern Lebanon told Asharq Al-Awsat, pointing out that Israeli forces “are turning the area adjacent to the yellow line into a scorched area that serves as a new buffer zone outside the buffer zone it created between the border with Lebanon and the yellow line.”
The source said that a similar measure “means that Israel is seeking to remove the population and thwart an attempt to monitor the movements and positions of its forces within the area occupied by (Hezbollah),” adding that “fears of the resumption of resistance actions and directed military operations in the future are pushing Israel to take a similar measure.”
According to the source: “The dimensions of these measures are not limited to the security aspect, as they also include a military aspect, which is to pave the way for quickly occupying any area to which you intend to advance, without entailing significant risks in any advance attempts that may be made if the Israeli army obtains political approval,” describing these measures as “dangerous.”
Empty and destroy towns
The Israeli army completely emptied the town of Al-Mansouri, located south of the city of Tyre, of its residents last June, after leaflets were dropped that included an immediate call for residents to leave and evacuate due to the danger of the area, noting that the town was home to 37 families who returned after the ceasefire. Israeli aircraft also targeted the Lebanese army's deployment points there, prompting it to retreat.
Since then, the Israeli army has carried out more than 130 bombings, sources from Al-Mansouri told Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that Israeli army tanks and military vehicles “enter and leave the town on an almost daily basis to carry out booby-trapping operations.” She pointed out that military vehicles “crossed the center of the town to the Al-Baraka area located west of it, near the coastal road, and booby-trapped houses and cut down trees.” She said, “After the destruction of the town’s mosque, it was no longer possible to know the neighborhoods targeted by bombings or artillery shelling, as it was the landmark that was used to determine the locations of the bombings.”
This applies to the towns of Hadada and Beit Yahoun, which were “completely emptied of their residents following the Israeli incursions and daily bombing,” while the town of Bara’shit “has become almost devoid of residents,” as local sources in the central sector told Asharq Al-Awsat. Aita al-Jabal is subjected to daily artillery shelling and incursions into its surroundings, which prompted most of the residents to leave “after it became a dangerous area.”
This reality also applies in Kafr Tibnit and Nabatiyeh Al-Fawqa, “which have become completely empty and almost completely destroyed,” with explosions in the first, and shelling and raids in the second. Nabatieh Al-Fawqa was emptied of residents following an Israeli attack on a teacher and her children who were on their way to their home to bring some luggage last June.
Unstable areas
The areas facing the occupied towns east of Wadi Al-Hujair and Wadi Al-Saluki suffer from daily artillery shelling, air strikes, and continuous overflights of Israeli marches. The security source in the south said that the conditions of these towns “do not resemble those of the towns located on the line of contact with the (yellow line), because they are relatively far away, and therefore they were not devoid of their residents, but they have become subject to continuous bombardment, which makes them unstable,” referring to the targeting of the town of Shaqra, and the towns located on the western outskirts of Wadi Al-Hujair.
Bombings and raids
This reality is reflected in Saturday's developments, as artillery shelling targeted the Wadi Saluki area - the vicinity of the town of Shaqra, and the eastern outskirts of Zawtar. A series of violent raids also targeted Al-Jabal Al-Rafi'i and Al-Rayhan between Iqlim Al-Tuffah and Jezzine District, the repercussions of which reached the city of Sidon and its surroundings. Three raids were monitored on the outskirts of the town of Sajad, carried out with concussion missiles, the echo of which reached Al-Zahrani. In the western sector, Israeli forces bombed with artillery the areas of Al-Mansouri, Majdal Zoun, and Wadi Hassan. A huge Israeli bombing rocked the town of Al-Tiri, and another violent bombing rocked Majdal Zoun.
It was reported that an Israeli force advanced to the southern side of the outskirts of the town of Deir Mimas in the Marjayoun district, specifically at the olive groves.
Violent bombings were also carried out after midnight on Friday and Saturday in Baraashit, Hadada, and the vicinity of the town of Beit Yahoun.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Israel will continue to carry out bombings and bombings in southern Lebanese towns to expand the scorched area
Very likely · Within weeks
The Syrian authorities will continue arrest campaigns against former air force officers accused of war crimes
Very likely · Within weeks
South Lebanon may witness a military escalation if resistance groups attempt to return to destroyed towns
Likely · Within days

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