US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week instructed diplomats around the world to inform their host countries that they must “systematically sever” ties with Iran, and immediately close any Iranian bank branches.
On Friday, the US Treasury announced that it had targeted a Turkish bank and its branches that allegedly constitute a “vital financial lifeline” for Iran.
These measures represent the latest sanctions in the framework of “Operation Economic Pariah,” a pressure campaign that US President Donald Trump described as an “economic victory day” for Iran.
However, rather than a comprehensive, unified attack, these measures have come gradually over the nearly two weeks since they were announced.
At the same time, there remains deep skepticism on the part of experts and diplomats that the United States will take effective action against key Iran partners such as China.
They still wonder about the impact of sanctions on Tehran, which has withstood economic pressure for decades. A regional source said: “The Iranians have dealt with and avoided sanctions for half a century. They are able to withstand almost anything.” Experts noted that the impact of sanctions takes time.
A former senior US State Department official noted that indicators of economic distress in Iran, such as long fuel lines or empty store shelves, appear to be “part of what is happening, not something new.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent dismissed the idea that sanctions were futile, insisting that the United States had “never intervened... with this level of intensity.”
Last week, the Treasury Department proposed cutting off the branches of Banque Misr in the Emirates, the second largest bank in Egypt, from the US financial market, and also imposed sanctions on the general manager of the Dubai branch of Bank Melli, the largest bank in Iran.
On Friday, sanctions targeted the Turkish Golden Global Bank and its branches, which the US Treasury claims “facilitated millions of dollars in transactions,” including oil revenues from China, for the benefit of the “Quds Force” of the “Revolutionary Guard.”
“The importance of these sanctions lies not only in the size of the bank, but in that they show, especially with the bilateral conference between Trump and Xi approaching in two weeks, that there are other countries, including allies, against which the United States is prepared to act,” said Daniel Tannebaum, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Experts and diplomats who spoke to CNN doubted the possibility of the US administration taking a similar step towards China. Tannebaum said: “If the United States takes action against China, it will be very carefully thought out, without any surprises.”
Meanwhile, Trump administration officials have indicated that Beijing is cooperating more than it appears. “We have more in common with the Chinese on Iran than we disagree with them on it,” Besant said at an event on the sidelines of the G20 finance ministers’ meeting this week.
There is also skepticism about the possibility of the United States taking decisive action against Pakistan or Oman, which have trade relations with Iran, given their role in diplomatic efforts related to the war.
Another regional source said: “I think they are trying to be balanced and cautious, which is why they are targeting small banks now, hoping to cause panic in other banks, while being very careful not to undermine any hope for the peace agreement.”
Besant said this week that the United States had seen “huge support from all over the world” for its latest economic campaign. “We are reaching out to our allies here, who have all shown great support, and we have seen that clearly,” he said at the G20 summit.
A diplomatic source described the talks with his country as "still in the clarification stage."
In a cable sent earlier this week, Rubio asked diplomats to inform host countries of “Operation Economic Pariah.” For embassies in places like London and Muscat, diplomats were asked to stress the need for “countries to take immediate action to close all Iranian bank branches within their jurisdiction.” The diplomatic cable, seen by CNN, said: “Bank branches should be closed immediately.”
