A global deficit in fuel oil supplies is expected during the third quarter due to unrest in the Middle East

The consulting company Energy Aspects expected that the global deficit in fuel oil supplies would reach about 218 thousand barrels per day during the third quarter, the first deficit of its kind estimated by the company since the third quarter of 2025. Rystad Energy said that supplies will remain very scarce due to the continuing unrest in the Middle East.

Asia is likely to be most affected, due to its heavy dependence on supplies coming from the Gulf. Singapore, the world's largest bunkering centre, imports more than half of its needs, which approach one million barrels per day, according to Kpler data.

Data showed that fuel oil stocks in the centers of Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah are about 30% less than their three-year seasonal average. The price of low-sulfur fuel oil, the main fuel for ships, has also risen by 76% in Singapore since the outbreak of the Iran war, reaching about $825 per ton on September 1, exceeding the 40% rise in Brent crude during the same period.

Supplies were affected by a decline in fuel oil exports from Russia, after Ukrainian attacks targeting its refineries, to a record level of 591,000 barrels per day in August, compared to an average exceeding 860,000 barrels per day in 2025. Middle East exports also decreased by 45% on an annual basis, to an average of 447,000 barrels per day between March and August, according to Kpler data.

The unrest included the Kuwaiti Al-Zour refinery, one of the largest suppliers of fuel oil, as it has only exported one shipment equivalent to about 26,000 barrels per day since March, compared to about 191,000 barrels per day during January and February, according to Kpler data.