Hershey pointed out that the focus of real estate market observation is gradually shifting from "how much housing prices will rise" to "whether a large number of new houses can be sold smoothly." (Photo by reporter Zhu Yuqiao)
As the buying momentum in the housing market gradually subsides, the construction projects accumulated in the pre-sale market in previous years are being completed one after another, and the new home market is beginning to experience the pressure of "high-end supply and cooling demand." According to an analysis of the number of residential use licenses issued by Tsinghua Anfu, it was also found that the supply of completed new houses nationwide has increased significantly in recent years. In the first half of 2021, about 46,705 use licenses were issued, climbing to a peak of 74,238 units in the second half of 2024, and still reaching 68,449 units in the first half of 2026, maintaining a relatively high-end.
According to the latest housing price index data in July, the national housing price index was 192.86, down 1.39% from the same period last year. The annual change rate has converged for 14 consecutive months, indicating that the price momentum of the housing market continues to cool down.
Hershey Price stated that there is a time gap between the start, construction and completion of housing to obtain a license. Therefore, most of the new houses that have obtained licenses are construction projects that were planned and promoted during the boom of the housing market a few years ago. When a large number of new houses enter the market, unsold houses may not only face a longer sales period, but competition between construction projects in the same area will also become more obvious.
Observing from the actual price login transaction data, the gap between supply and demand has begun to emerge. In the first half of this year, there were only 23,915 new housing cases that had completed transactions during the pre-sale period, that is, cases with "transaction dates earlier than the construction completion date" (excluding newly-existing houses), a significant decrease of nearly 50% compared to the 47,181 units in the same period last year.
If we further use "the number of cases sold during the pre-sale period as a percentage of the number of households receiving use licenses in the current period" as an indicator to observe the depletion of new housing supply, the national new housing transaction/contract ratio dropped from 58.8% in the first half of 2021 to 34.9% in the first half of 2026, a decrease of 23.9 percentage points. In other words, early projects are being completed one after another and new homes continue to enter the market, but the actual transaction volume has not kept pace. The increase in supply and the cooling of gas purchases have resulted in a "one increase and one decrease", and the pressure on the new home market is increasing.
Observing the situation in the six cities, new housing transactions/consumption ratios in the first half of this year were lower than the same period in 2021. Among them, Taipei City dropped from 29.4% to 15.5%, the lowest among the six cities; Taichung City dropped from 61.3% to 31.2%; Kaohsiung City dropped from 47.4% to 27.8%; New Taipei City also dropped from 62.9% to 37.2%. In comparison, Taoyuan City's 47.0% and Tainan City's 68.7% are the highest among the six cities. However, both are lower than the same period in 2021, indicating that even if the current decontamination performance is relatively good, the market's rate of absorbing new homes is still slower than in the past.
Dai Jiasheng, chairman of the Real Estate Agency Federation of the Republic of China, said that the current real estate market transactions have shrunk significantly, and housing prices in some areas have also loosened. He called on the central bank to moderately loosen unreasonable or unnecessary restrictions, such as second-home loan restrictions. Although there is an 18-month sale period, many people who change houses are tied to 60% of the loan percentage, which doubles the pressure to buy a house. At present, bank assessments are conservative, and many people who change houses still end up "seeing but not eating."
Hershey Price said that overall, when the "past peak of project promotions" meets the "current transaction low", the focus of real estate market observation is gradually shifting from "how much housing prices will rise" to "whether a large number of new houses can be sold smoothly." With credit controls, tightening mortgage conditions and home buyers waiting on the sidelines, the pace of new home sales, changes in remaining homes for sale and builders' price strategies will become important indicators for judging the subsequent trend of the housing market in the next one to two years.
