A series of recent security incidents at British military bases used by American forces prompted Washington to quickly transfer a number of its aircraft, as well as raise the security alert level of some of its forces, according to CNN.
On two occasions, one in October and the other in November, the United States moved its aircraft following threats that officials said came from Iran. In a separate incident also in October, two Latvian men were arrested at another RAF base used by US personnel.
The frequency of these incidents highlights the risks associated with the United Kingdom's decision to allow US forces to launch defensive strikes against Iran from its air bases, and also highlights Britain's strategic importance as a home to expensive US aircraft, which in turn constitute attractive targets for attacks.
For its part, the British government confirms that its bases are still safe, noting that it has strengthened security measures at all its sites. But how rare are these incidents? Why does it seem to be concentrated in the UK?
Does Britain host more US troops than other countries?
The answer is no. According to what the British government announced in March, the number of American military and defense personnel stationed in the United Kingdom is about 12,300 individuals.
But Germany hosts a much larger number of American forces, and includes the headquarters of the American command in Europe, while Italy hosts a number of American forces close to the number in the United Kingdom.
What is the importance of British bases for the American army?
Although the United Kingdom is not the country that hosts the largest number of US forces, its bases are of great strategic importance; It is often used to host expensive American aircraft.
The Mildenhall Base of the British Royal Air Force (RAF Mildenhall) is the only permanent headquarters in Europe for American refueling aircraft. It provides vital support that enables American forces to deploy quickly throughout the world.
Flight tracking data analyzed by CNN showed that 10 American planes were transported to refuel from the base on Monday, following an Iranian threat that was described as “credible,” according to a person familiar with the intelligence that prompted the evacuation.
The source refused to reveal details of the nature of the threat targeting the base, but pointed out that US intelligence services have monitored in recent weeks a wide range of “diverse, intense and specific” plans being discussed by Iranians to target American interests.
The RAF Fairford base, which was a target in September, is of similar strategic importance. Its long runway allows it to be one of the few American bases in Europe capable of receiving all three types of long-range bombers operated by the US Air Force.
The United States had used the Fairford base to launch strikes on Iranian missile sites that were used to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which required the stationing of American B-1 bombers there.
Federal prosecutors in the United States stated, in a new indictment issued on Tuesday, that this made Al-Qaeda a main target of a foiled plot that was managed by the leader of one of the terrorist groups affiliated with Iran from inside his prison in New York.
Sources familiar with the case told CNN that the plan included using trucks loaded with fuel as vehicle-mounted explosive devices.
Louise Kettle, a professor at the University of Nottingham who specializes in British-Iranian relations, says that Iran seeks, in addition to targeting American interests, to weaken relations between the United States and its allies through its external attacks.
She explained that the goal in such cases is “to weaken the ties between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel.”
Have security threats in Britain become more serious?
In the months since the start of US and Israeli strikes against Iran, the nature of the threat Iran poses to the UK has changed.
According to Ken McCallum, head of the British Internal Intelligence Service (MI5), Tehran sought to expand the scope of its hybrid operations and modified its strategy to include targeting “more fortified sites, such as military installations.”
Kittle believes that this shift reflects a broader change in Iran’s strategic approach, especially after the collapse of its traditional policy based on “advanced defense” through its proxies in the Middle East.
She added: “Not only did the United Kingdom change its approach by allowing the United States to use its bases, nor did the global context change as a result of the United States entering into a war with Iran, but Iran’s strategic capabilities also changed. Therefore, we should expect Iran to change its strategy.”
Last week alone, Hamshahri newspaper, which is linked to the Iranian state, made threats to other European bases, including bases in Germany, Italy and Greece.
The newspaper published on its front page a warning stating: “We will see what happens,” accompanied by a map of Europe with red marks showing the locations of the bases affected by the threats.
McCallum pointed out that the Fairford incident was not a “unique case,” adding: “There were other examples, not only in the United Kingdom, but all over the world,” without revealing further details.
However, McCallum explained that Iran's ability to carry out operations outside its borders mostly depends on the use of "criminal agents."
He added that this accreditation makes its capabilities limited to “the level of development of these criminals,” stressing that the police and intelligence services are currently capable of dealing with these threats “with great effectiveness.”
In the United Kingdom, these threats were mainly manifested in attacks targeting the Jewish community, opposition journalists, and military bases.
But the nature of the threats may differ from one country to another. In France - which does not host permanent US forces that can be targeted, but has participated in “defensive” operations against Iran - the authorities, on Monday, held the Iranian “Revolutionary Guard” responsible for a cyber attack that targeted refrigerators in major stores last month, which led to the damage of goods in about 700 stores.
For its part, Tehran described this accusation as “baseless and hostile.”
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham expected, on Thursday, that negotiations to conclude new agreements with the European Union would continue until the last minute, ahead of a scheduled summit with the bloc's senior officials next week.
“I will do my best in the coming days to ensure the completion of this agreement,” Burnham said after an expanded meeting that included dozens of European leaders in Dublin.
He added: “I think that the negotiations will continue until the last moments, as they are likely to become more difficult, but we will not turn our back on them.”
The summit that Burnham will hold in Brussels on November 20 with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, is considered an initial test of his pledge to strengthen relations with the European Union, more than a decade after Britain voted for Brexit.
Burnham, who took power in July, succeeded in overcoming the taboos in Britain's divisive internal debate over the European Union, by raising the possibility that Britain might one day apply to rejoin the bloc.
But currently, the first steps in rapprochement seem more modest, as the two parties seek to conclude three agreements, the first related to easing bureaucratic procedures for food exports, the second on emissions, and the third on youth.
These agreements were in the works long before Burnam moved to 10 Downing Street.
But officials warn that some obstacles still remain, most notably the European Union's demand that London allow European students to enroll in British universities at reduced fees.
European Commission President von der Leyen wrote in a post after her meeting with the British Prime Minister: “Let us make it an ambitious summit with tangible results.”
She added: “More opportunities for youth, facilitating agricultural food trade, and enhancing cooperation on economic security.”
Burnham hopes that these agreements will contribute to revitalizing Britain's economy, which supports his goal of reducing the cost of living.
European Union ambassadors held a new round of talks on the draft summit statement on Wednesday, and are scheduled to return to discuss it in the days before the summit.
A previous draft, according to Agence France-Presse, allows young people from the European Union and Britain to reside for up to three years in the territory of the other party, for purposes such as work, study or travel.
At the same time, Britain is urging the European Union not to exclude it from its “Made in Europe” industrial initiative.
Opinion polls regularly show that most Britons regret leaving the European Union.
A European diplomat, who requested to remain anonymous, considered that the signals Burnum is sending are “very positive, even if no one believes that the United Kingdom will join again in our lifetime.”
