Late at night, Tehran said: We may take action first if necessary

Late at night, Tehran said: We may take action first if necessary | International Morning Watch

Trump said something a few days ago: There are only two paths left for Iran—either the easy one or the difficult one.

Tehran was silent for several days, and on the evening of October 7, local time, it gave a stronger reply: This time, you may have to choose first.

The story that followed - Iran released two "flares" within a few hours, made the hearts of the world rise along with the price of oil.

Late night in Tehran, two messages in a row

On the evening of October 7, local time, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, first announced that a few “illegal waterways” in the Strait of Hormuz will soon be closed.

On the same day, a military spokesman made an equally tough statement - "If necessary, we will take preemptive strikes to prevent the 'enemy' from attacking."

The two shots that night were most likely meant for Washington.

On October 3, Trump told reporters that Iran "has been beaten to pieces" and left him with the famous multiple-choice question - the easy way or the hard way? He also hinted that he had unannounced big moves on his hands: "If I told you now, you would get a big headline."

The translation of these two sentences from Tehran is: Don't scare me, I also hold the switch.

Washington's actions are also advancing in the dark

The White House's actions are also advancing in the shadows.

According to the US media Axios News, a number of senior officials held a secret meeting at Camp David on October 2, local time, to discuss the next strategy for the Iran war behind closed doors. The White House "did not comment" on the content of the meeting - usually, in Washington, these four words are full of connotations.

What is more real than a secret room meeting is a warship. According to the British "Guardian" report, the third US aircraft carrier strike group is already on its way to the Middle East. It is planned that by November this year, three aircraft carriers and two amphibious battle groups will be deployed in this area at the same time.

November 3rd is the day of the U.S. midterm elections.

Military actions, secret meetings, and the election clock are all stacked together, and the "upgrade window" has visibly pointed to November.

The 30-kilometer-wide strait holds one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas

Why is the whole world staring at these few words from Tehran? Because the Strait of Hormuz is only more than 30 kilometers at its narrowest point, about one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas passes through this narrow waterway.

No one can avoid oil tankers from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Since the conflict between the United States, Iran and Israel broke out at the end of February this year, Iran has blocked shipping in the Strait, and the US military has responded by blocking Iranian ports.

Entering October, tough actions at sea have obviously intensified: multiple oil tankers were attacked one after another near the strait, shipowners began to take detours, and the spot rent of very large oil tankers once reached a historical high of one million US dollars per day.

The cost was quickly transmitted to the price: Brent crude oil once stood at the US$100 per barrel mark, and many countries took action one after another - the G7 first announced the release of 100 million barrels of oil reserves through the coordination of the International Energy Agency; on October 7, local time, the member states of the International Energy Agency agreed to speed up the implementation of the collective release plan launched in March this year, and bring to the market as soon as possible the approximately 100 million barrels of oil reserves that had been previously committed but not yet released.

Even Iran's own oil minister submitted his resignation during this tug-of-war of blockade - while exports are blocked, while supporting the operation of the oil industry, this job is indeed not easy to do.

Author: Wang Xi