Italy: Meloni's power poker over the right to vote

The snipers stayed under cover for the time being. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has clearly won three confidence votes on parts of the new electoral law. But the decisive final vote is not due until this afternoon: it could transform Italy's political system - or cause Meloni's reform ideas to fail, which could lead to new elections.

At an appearance in Bari in September, Meloni once again vigorously defended her push for a new electoral law - she wanted to limit the power of the parties and end coalition bickering.

New electoral law would change government formation

Meloni said: "We want whoever wins an election to have the basis to govern for five years. So no more surprising political changes, no more tactical deals in the backroom, as the Democratic Party would like, no more compromises on the backs of the Italians. The citizens should elect the government that listens to them."

The new electoral law would significantly change the way a government is formed in Rome. It would force the parties to form large blocs during the election campaign.

And above all, it should give the election winner a comfortable majority, even if he doesn't get half the votes. Or in Meloni's words: "An electoral law that gives citizens back the right to determine the coalition, the prime ministerial candidate, the program and the MPs."

Meloni failed with some big goals

But it's not just about rules for the next election. It's also about the fact that Meloni has failed with some big goals and wants to fix a problem. The 49-year-old leads the longest-lasting government of Italy's post-war period and has also earned the respect of her European partners.

But it has so far failed to achieve its goals of restructuring the state. Voters defeated their judicial reform in a referendum in the spring. The idea of ​​directly electing the prime minister fails due to concerns even within the party's own ranks.

And the attempt to revise the right to vote failed at the first attempt in parliament - because of the so-called snipers from our own ranks. Because their partners are not sure that they would benefit from the new rules as much as Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia party.

If new elections fail?

To ensure that this doesn't happen again, Meloni linked the vote in the House of Representatives to the vote of confidence this time. And plays high with it. She won the three votes of confidence on individual parts of the new law. But Italy is looking forward to the secret final vote this afternoon with great excitement. If Meloni fails again, new elections are the most likely scenario.

The details of the new electoral law are controversial because, from the opposition's perspective, it specifically changes the rules of the game so that they only benefit Meloni's current center-right coalition.

Senator Andrea Giorgis of the Democratic Party says it's about disadvantaging and punishing the current opposition. This law is designed to cause difficulties for the opposition.

Renzi: Consciously bending the rules in order to continue to govern

And former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi goes one step further: He accuses Meloni of deliberately bending the rules so that she can continue to govern even if she does worse in the next election.

Renzi says: "If you want to be honest, you have to admit that you are lying. You are not doing this for stability. You are only doing this because you are convinced that otherwise you will lose next time, also because of your divisions."

Specifically, a bonus system is intended to ensure that the strongest party bloc gets a comfortable majority in both chambers of parliament. The party coalition, which received 42 percent approval in both chambers, won 55 percent of the seats as a reward, explains constitutional lawyer Michele Anis.

In addition, voters should no longer vote for fixed party lists, but rather have the chance to vote for certain candidates. And the party blocs would have to decide on a candidate for the office of prime minister - which would limit the power of the president, who gives the government mandate in Italy.

Opponent: Violation of the constitution

This is exactly what the opponents see as a violation of the constitution - they want to appeal to the Constitutional Court if Meloni enforces her "Stabilicum". That's what the government calls the new law in incorrect Latin.

Constitutional lawyer Anis says: "It's a trick of us Italians to mess up the names of electoral laws with pseudo-Latin. Latin is suitable for making a word appear noble."

But even if Meloni enforces her “Stabilicum” election law today, she may have made a miscalculation. The 42 percent threshold for bonus seats in parliament was based on the party system of recent years. Meanwhile, Meloni is coming under pressure from the far right: Former general Roberto Vannacci is undermining Meloni and her partners with radical and provocative statements against foreigners.

It could happen that Meloni's current alliance does not achieve a majority with its previous partners despite the new tailor-made electoral law.