Iraq is studying “contingency plans” for US strikes on Iran

It was reported in Baghdad, on Friday, that the government had developed a multi-track emergency plan in anticipation of the possibility of a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran, including the deployment of military units in border cities, whose officers received orders to address any violations without referring to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, while government departments are studying parallel precautions related to distance learning and preparing to receive displaced persons who may flee from conflict areas.

This week, signs of imminent US strikes on Iran have increased, while circles in Baghdad fear widespread participation of Shiite factions alongside Tehran, according to an updated target bank.

A senior security official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Iraqi government has taken precautionary measures under the guidance of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces to impose strict control on border cities and increase the pace of field follow-up, including conducting updated assessments around the clock for any unusual movements.

The official, who refused to reveal his name, explained: Because he was not authorized to speak publicly, the measures included “following the border with Iran from the direction of the city of Sulaymaniyah in the north in Iraqi Kurdistan, and Basra in the south near the borders with Kuwait and Iran, in addition to deploying army forces along the border with Syria.”

The military leadership is focusing on Basra Governorate due to fears of the activity of armed factions in strategic geographical locations with regional sensitivity,” according to the Iraqi official.

Another official, who participated in an expanded meeting last week devoted to discussing the repercussions of the war, said that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi granted army commanders the authority to immediately deal with any armed violations carried out by outlaw groups without consulting him. These leaders now have, according to the official, “exceptional powers to deter armed groups.”

In parallel with the military plans, the Ministerial Council for National Security discussed preparing for exceptional situations that would force schools to move to distance learning, transferring public sector documents and saving them digitally for some sensitive institutions, in addition to preparing for the possibility of an influx of displaced people fleeing the military confrontation, according to a knowledgeable civilian official.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Ali Al-Zaidi, chairs the Ministerial Council for National Security, whose membership includes the National Security Advisor and the Ministers of Interior, Defense, Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Planning. However, a government source told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is too early to make decisions related to studies and government work in general, adding that “the government had drawn up emergency plans since last March coinciding with the outbreak of war after the killing of Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei, and is updating them according to the changes on a regular basis until today.”

However, political officials spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat this week about an “unprecedented level” of fears against the backdrop of “the modernization of armed factions to achieve their objectives” based on the orders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

On Wednesday, Tasnim News Agency quoted Ismail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, the regional arm of the Revolutionary Guards, as saying, “The resistance leaders received the message of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, which calls for (confronting the enemy without borders), and they began converting it into practical steps, through a written declaration of complete loyalty.”

One Iraqi official said, “Al-Zaidi may find himself the head of government of a country hostile to the United States if the factions engage in war this time.”

The US presidential envoy to Iraq, Tom Barrack, said in a statement after his meeting, on Thursday evening, with Al-Zaidi that the latter is undertaking the most difficult task of containing crises before they escalate. After a phone call with Trump on the same day, Al-Zaidi also renewed his assertion that Iraq would not allow attacks on neighboring countries to be launched from its territory.

Kurdish sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that the American envoy will share, on Friday evening, with officials in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah “the latest developments about the crisis with Iran, and the possibilities of renewed military confrontation with it.”

Politically, Al-Zaidi informed the leaders of the ruling coalition about the features of his plans to prepare for American strikes. An informed political source said that the Prime Minister informed the “coordinating framework,” which includes the most prominent Shiite forces, of the possibility of the Americans launching an imminent military operation against Iran. He also shared with them fears that groups allied with Iran and close to parties in the coalition would engage in deterrence operations on orders from Tehran.

According to the informed source, the Prime Minister hopes that the forces within the ruling coalition will help prevent these groups, despite suspicions that some of these forces are “afraid of the possibility of Tehran losing the military confrontation and the repercussions of that on its political existence.”

It coincides that the government's preparations for the possible outbreak of a military confrontation with Iran coincide with an influx of reports about commercial activities of armed factions, at a time when pressure is increasing on Baghdad to prevent these groups from attacks on neighboring countries.

Activists known to be close to the factions shared information about a network of interests and companies led by leaders of armed factions and individuals in their family circle that they manage or are associated with.

These reports, which are difficult to verify, raise: It focuses in particular on the “Hezbollah Brigades”, discussing the attempts of active parties to undermine the legitimacy of the factions, as they are groups that have often raised the banner of resistance in the country, by shedding a revealing light on their financial ambitions, while they are about to engage in a confrontation alongside Iran.

On Friday, Lebanese Interior Minister Ahmed Al-Hajjar dispelled fears of a “escape” in the security situation in Lebanon, in light of information about repeated pickpocketing and theft incidents in Beirut and its suburbs, stressing the necessity of approaching the security reality based on facts and figures.

Local media reported that 6 incidents of pickpocketing and shooting were recorded in the vicinity of the Lebanese capital within one day, which sparked panic in Beirut. Accusations of negligence rose against the security forces, which was denied by the Minister of the Interior, who held a press conference in which he stressed that the Ministry is primarily responsible for the security of citizens in various Lebanese territories, especially in the capital, Beirut, stressing the necessity of approaching the security reality based on facts and figures.

On Friday, Al-Hajjar visited the headquarters of the Beirut Police Unit, where he held a meeting with the Director General of the Internal Security Forces, Major General Raed Abdullah, the Commander of the Beirut Police Unit, Brigadier General Imad Al-Jamal, the head of the Information Division, Brigadier General Mahmoud Qubrosli, and the relevant officers, to discuss tightening security measures and procedures, especially in the city of Beirut.

Al-Hajjar explained in his press conference that portraying the security situation in Lebanon as completely unrestrained “does not reflect the reality of the data,” pointing out that “the efforts made by the Internal Security Forces in recent weeks have contributed to reducing some crimes, especially pickpocketing operations, which decreased significantly, while looting operations recorded an increase.”

He revealed that according to statistics recorded from the first of November until the sixth of November: “The various Lebanese regions witnessed 8 pickpocketing operations and 4 robbery operations,” indicating that only 3 robbery operations were confirmed on Thursday, and investigations and follow-up are still ongoing regarding them, while a person was arrested in connection with one of these operations.

According to official documentation, it was found that the first robbery took place in Rawdat al-Shahedine at eight in the morning, the second in Al-Jadeeda Road at twelve noon, and the third in Khalde at ten at night.

In a related context, Al-Hajjar pointed out that 34 people were arrested in cases of robbery and pickpocketing across Lebanon during the month of October, stressing that the Operations Room follows up on complaints and security developments around the clock.

He stressed that he understands the citizens' cry and fears, considering that pumping out exaggerated information raises questions about the goals behind it.

Al-Hajjar visited the operations room of the Beirut Police Unit in the Internal Security Forces, where the officers of the room presented a security summary to the Minister of Interior on security developments, especially with regard to the looting operations during the last days in the capital, Beirut.

Local reports circulated preliminary information about six robberies on Thursday, claiming that they occurred in Ras al-Nabaa, Ramlet al-Bayda and Gemmayzeh, in addition to attacks by thieves on delivery workers in the southern suburb of Beirut.

However, the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces clarified that this news is inaccurate and exaggerated, confirming that one robbery occurred in the New Tariq district on Thursday.

The directorate said in a statement: “One of the patrols of the Beirut Investigation Detachment was able, at dawn on Thursday, to arrest two people red-handed, riding a motorcycle without a registration plate, in the Achrafieh area - Pierre Gemayel Avenue, for carrying out a robbery in the area, and it was found that they had a history in this field.”

Hezbollah launched an attack on the statement issued by the embassies of the “Friends of Lebanon” countries, namely the United Kingdom, the United States of America, Australia, Canada, and Japan, which stipulated that weapons must be exclusively in the hands of the state, and that it alone be the decision maker in matters of war and peace. In this regard, it called for a public commitment from all members of the House of Representatives and all parties. It also addressed the issue of the Dahr al-Baydar explosives, calling for “a quick and independent judicial process, free from any political interference, to ensure full accountability.”

A diplomatic source told Asharq Al-Awsat, “The statement aims to reaffirm our positions in support of the government’s efforts to consolidate the state’s sovereignty and the exclusivity of weapons in its hands.”

Official Lebanon did not agree with the statement, as an official Lebanese source told Asharq Al-Awsat, pointing out that “in any case, it is completely consistent with the recent positions of the Presidents of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, and the government, Nawaf Salam, related to the necessity of not involving Lebanon in the conflicts of the region, and it comes at a time when there is increasing fear of (Hezbollah) engaging in a possible future war against Iran.”

It seemed clear that this statement aroused the ire of Hezbollah, and a member of its parliamentary bloc, MP Ali Ammar, said that the statement “expresses the height of arrogance and insolence, as it blatantly dares to interfere in the most minute details of Lebanese internal affairs, without any regard for Lebanon’s sovereignty, the independence of its judiciary, diplomatic principles, or the dignity of the Lebanese people, reaching the point of interfering in deciding their national choices and imposing political trends on them.”

Ammar stressed, in a statement, that “the Lebanese authority’s continuation of ignoring these repeated interventions and dealing with them as if they were a normal and common matter is completely rejected and condemned,” considering that “it would have been better for these countries, which falsely claim to be friendly to Lebanon and keen to support it, to come together to issue a statement rejecting the continuation of the Israeli occupation of Lebanese lands, and condemning the daily attacks on Lebanese sovereignty, the crimes of murder, destruction and displacement, and the continued violation of the agreements.” and international resolutions, and to call for national dialogue and understanding among the Lebanese, instead of contributing to fueling divisions, stirring up strife among them, and defending their enemies.”

Representative Dr. Michel Douaihy believes that the international statement “is directed to the Lebanese authority to take action on the issue of weapons, and to support the decisions it has taken with executive steps,” pointing out in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “Lebanon has not missed the train yet, and can still catch it through actual steps by the authority, and by changing its current behavior.”

Regarding the international interest in the Dahr al-Baydar explosives file, Douaihy points out that “what can be confirmed is that it is no longer possible to address an issue of this magnitude, especially after a representative from (Hezbollah) came out to adopt the explosives and demand their return, which requires that there be judicial decisions, arrests, and trials. We are not satisfied with arresting those who were transporting these explosives.”

It was noteworthy that the statement of the five countries did not include France and Germany, which are closely following the Lebanese issue, and the director of the Middle East Institute for Strategic Affairs, Dr. Sami Nader, explained this by saying that “the countries that signed the statement are all in the orbit of the United States of America, and they are demanding practical steps regarding the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons and rejecting the saying that this might lead to a civil war, in contrast to the understanding that France was leading, in terms of that the state is unable to go further on this issue, through... The army, in the face of Hezbollah, leads to an internal explosion.”

Nader considered, in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, that “American logic is completely against this trend, and believes that there is a minimum that is supposed to be done, with regard to the party’s weapons file, and that the arguments presented by the Lebanese state are no longer justified, but rather constitute a cover for (Hezbollah),” adding: “Even the French themselves have begun to retreat from their previous position under the pressure of diplomacy and are losing their presence and influence in Lebanon for the benefit of other countries.”