
AI-generated summary
After U.S. President Trump's Republican Party lost control of Congress in the midterm elections, investors bet that a shift in the power map could accelerate the end of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. As a result, international oil prices fell more than 8%, closing at the lowest level in two months.
International oil prices fell more than 8% on Wednesday (4th). (Reuters)
[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] After U.S. President Trump’s Republican Party lost control of Congress in the midterm elections, investors bet that changes in the power map may accelerate the end of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran. As a result, international oil prices fell more than 8% on Wednesday (4th), closing at the lowest level in more than two months.
Brent crude oil futures fell $8.98, or 8.7%, to close at $94.62 a barrel.
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U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in New York fell $7.97, or 8.3%, to close at $88.12 a barrel.
Both major crude oil benchmark prices hit their lowest closing prices since August 31.
Trump now faces two choices: negotiate an end to the war, or take higher risks and escalate the conflict further. Two people familiar with the situation within the Persian Gulf governments said that Trump's political strength is now weakened, and the Democratic Party's ability to limit his military actions after taking control of Congress, so there is more incentive to seek a negotiated agreement. They believe that the possibility of a full-scale US attack on Iran has been significantly reduced.
However, analysts in the Gulf region pointed out that if the final agreement allows Iran to claim a clear victory but makes Trump appear defeated, such an outcome may also prompt Trump to take reckless actions rather than choose restraint.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Tuesday, Trump said that the United States currently has no immediate plans to attack Iran. By Wednesday, he also admitted that the war with Iran was one of the reasons for the Republican defeat in the midterm elections. This election gave the Democrats control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of the trading department of BOK Financial, a US financial services company, said: "The Democratic Party's control of Congress may also further restrict US military spending in the Middle East, making it possible for a peace agreement to be reached earlier." He pointed out that the increase in crude oil exports from the Middle East and Trump's statement that he has no plans to attack Iran in the near future have further increased the downward pressure on crude oil prices.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance also deliberately distanced himself from the decision to go to war with Iran on Wednesday, not only questioning whether the war was worth it, but also blaming the war entirely for the Republican Party's defeat by voters and the loss of control of Congress.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that no matter which political party is in power in the United States, hostility towards Iran will not change. The Iran-backed Yemeni rebel "Youth Movement" claimed that it had listed the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as an attack target, but Saudi Arabian officials have not confirmed this news.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The United States and Iran may negotiate a peace deal to end the war
Likely · Within weeks
Middle East crude oil exports may increase
Possible · Short term

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