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Back川普期中選舉慘敗!國際油價崩了
川普期中選舉慘敗!國際油價崩了
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自由时报1 hour agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

川普期中選舉慘敗!國際油價崩了

Quick Look

美國中期選舉後共和黨失去國會控制權,投資人押注權力轉變可能加速結束美伊戰爭,國際油價週三下跌逾8%,布蘭特與WTI均創8月31日以來最低收盤價。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美國總統川普所屬的共和黨在期中選舉中失去國會控制權後,投資人押注權力版圖轉變可能加速美國與以色列對伊朗戰爭的結束,國際油價因此下跌逾8%,收在兩個月來最低水準。

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國際油價週三(4日)下跌逾8%。(路透)

〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕美國總統川普所屬的共和黨在期中選舉中失去國會控制權後,投資人押注,權力版圖的轉變可能加速美國與以色列對伊朗戰爭的結束,國際油價週三(4日)因此下跌逾8%,收在2個多月來最低水準。

布蘭特原油期貨下跌8.98美元,跌幅8.7%,收在每桶94.62美元。

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美國紐約西德州中級原油(WTI)期貨下跌7.97美元,跌幅8.3%,收在每桶88.12美元。

兩大原油基準價格均創8月31日以來最低收盤價。

川普如今面臨兩種選擇:透過談判結束戰爭,或冒著更高風險進一步升高衝突。兩名熟悉波斯灣各國政府內部情勢的人士表示,川普如今政治實力受到削弱,加上民主黨掌控國會後有能力限制他的軍事行動,因此更有誘因尋求談判協議。他們認為,美國全面攻打伊朗的可能性已大幅降低。

不過,波灣地區分析人士指出,如果最終協議讓伊朗得以宣稱取得明確勝利,卻讓川普顯得一敗塗地,這種結果同樣可能促使川普採取不計後果的行動,而非選擇克制。

川普週二接受《金融時報》(Financial Times)訪問時表示,美國目前沒有立即攻擊伊朗的計畫。到了週三,他也承認,伊朗戰爭是共和黨在期中選舉中慘敗的原因之一。這次選舉由民主黨拿下眾議院與參議院的控制權。

美國金融服務公司BOK Financial交易部門資深副總裁基斯勒(Dennis Kissler)表示:「民主黨掌控國會,也可能進一步限制美國在中東的軍事支出,讓和平協議有望更早達成。」他指出,中東原油出口量增加,加上川普表明近期沒有攻擊伊朗的計畫,都進一步加重原油價格的下跌壓力。

美國副總統范斯(JD Vance)週三也刻意與對伊朗開戰的決策保持距離,不僅質疑這場戰爭是否值得,更將共和黨遭選民重挫、拱手讓出國會控制權的結果,完全歸咎於這場戰爭。

伊朗最高領袖穆吉塔巴(Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei)在書面聲明中表示,不論美國由哪個政黨執政,對伊朗的敵意都不會改變。伊朗支持的葉門叛軍「青年運動」則宣稱,已將沙烏地阿拉伯利雅德的哈立德國王國際機場(King Khalid International Airport)列為攻擊目標,但沙烏地阿拉伯官方尚未證實這項消息。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 美國與伊朗可能透過談判達成和平協議,結束戰爭

    Likely · Within weeks

  • 中東原油出口量可能增加

    Possible · Short term

Open Questions

  • 川普是否會透過談判結束對伊朗的戰爭?
  • 民主黨掌控國會後是否會限制美國在中東的軍事支出?
  • 葉門叛軍對利雅德機場的攻擊威脅是否會實現?
  • 伊朗是否會對美國敵意不變的立場採取具體行動?

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