Trump expects the war with Iran to continue after the midterm elections and Israeli bombings in southern Lebanon
Quick Look
US President Donald Trump said that he does not expect the war with Iran to end before the midterm elections in November 2026, indicating that the war will continue until after the elections, while the Ali al-Tahir Heights in southern Lebanon witnessed huge bombings that Israel announced targeted Hezbollah tunnels, amid escalating tension in the sea lanes due to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the expansion of the restricted zone, and the Houthis’ arrival to the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, which threatens navigation near Bab al-Mandab.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The war between the United States and Iran has entered its seventh month, with an escalation of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and mutual military responses, while southern Lebanon is witnessing Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, and the Houthis are exploiting the chaos to strengthen their control in the Red Sea.
US President Donald Trump said that he does not expect the war with Iran to end before the midterm elections in November, while the Ali al-Taher Heights in the Nabatieh region in southern Lebanon witnessed huge bombings, during which Israel announced that it had destroyed tunnels that it said belonged to Hezbollah.
This comes amid escalating tension in the sea lanes, as Iran said it attacked twenty ships that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, and announced the expansion of the “restricted zone” outside it, while Yemeni government sources reported that the Houthis had reached the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, raising concerns about navigation near Bab al-Mandab.
“I think the war will end as soon as the elections are over,” Trump said, referring to Tehran, on Wednesday, “because they will not be able to hold out any longer.”
He made these statements while heading to Texas to attend the first conference held by the Republican Party for the midterm elections, and he repeated them during the conference, considering that the short-term economic suffering is worth enduring to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.
Trump is facing a decline in his popularity in opinion polls and pressure from within his Republican Party to end the war with Iran.
“Immediately after the election, oil prices will drop dramatically,” Trump told reporters, adding: “I think it will take a little longer, until after the midterm elections.”
He added that Iran is "trying hard to influence the elections so that a nice, weak group comes to power" - apparently referring to the Democrats - "and leaves them alone and allows them to have their nuclear weapons."
The US President did not provide any evidence for his claim regarding the elections, and Tehran has repeatedly denied seeking to possess nuclear weapons.
During the conference in Texas, Trump repeated some of these statements, saying that oil prices would fall sharply "once we win the war with Iran."
In his speech, he also pointed to the dissatisfaction of some Americans with this issue, saying: “People come to me and say: I wish you had not fought the war in Iran. Gasoline prices have risen now.”
Trump also said that further negotiations with Iran remain possible, "but it's not something we're looking at."
The American President had initially expected that the war, which has entered its seventh month, would last only a few weeks, and the conflict and its repercussions on the prices of everything, from fuel to food, led to a sharp decline in support for him, and pressure from within his party, including from his loyal supporters, to end the war quickly.
Midterm elections will be held on November 3, and Republicans face the risk of losing control of Congress.
In southern Lebanon, Israel announced, on Thursday, the destruction of tunnels that it said Hezbollah had built under the Ali al-Tahir Heights in the Nabatieh region, with Iranian funding and planning.
The Lebanese National News Agency reported that a "huge explosion" had occurred in the highlands, causing strong vibrations and loud noises, while Agence France-Presse journalists reported hearing huge explosions.
The Israeli army said that the underground facilities extended for more than two kilometers, and included a command center for Hezbollah's "Badr" unit, as well as missiles, drones, weapons, and explosive devices.
Agence France-Presse reported that the US Geological Survey recorded a 4.1 magnitude earthquake in southern Lebanon following the explosions.
In parallel, the US Treasury Department announced, on Thursday, the imposition of sanctions on entities and individuals in Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey, which it said support the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, as part of a campaign to tighten economic pressure on Iran.
The ministry added that it has begun rejecting the vast majority of pending applications to obtain licenses for transactions related to Iran, with approvals limited to exceptional circumstances.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced on Wednesday that it had attacked two American ships, eight oil tankers, and ten “violating ships” that were trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, according to the official news agency “IRNA*,” while the American leadership denied this, and said that the Revolutionary Guard’s claim of attacking them was “completely false.”
The British Maritime Trade Operations Authority (UKMTO) said that “several commercial ships in the northern Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman” caught fire “as part of ongoing military activity in the region.”
In a measure that may impose additional complications on maritime traffic, the Revolutionary Guard announced the expansion of the “restricted zone” that ships are prohibited from entering without coordination with Tehran.
Guard spokesman Hussein Mohebi said, “It starts approximately from the Chabahar side (in southern Iran), and includes part of the Sea of Oman and another part of the Arabian Sea along the path that leads to the Strait of Hormuz.”
He explained: "If a ship enters that area without coordination, punitive measures will be imposed on it. This means, for example, that if it later wants to use the Strait of Hormuz or if it wants to receive services in a certain location, such as insurance or other related services, we will refrain from providing these services."
Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hussein Mohebi said on Wednesday that Tehran’s demands to end the war include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the release of about $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
The Revolutionary Guard announced earlier Wednesday that it had targeted an American military base in Jordan with the aim of “punishing the aggressor,” in response to the strikes carried out by Washington against Iranian oil tankers.
The Jordanian army reported that its defenses dealt with twenty ballistic missiles launched by Iran and intercepted 18 of them, while two missiles landed in two open areas, stressing that there were no "losses of life."
A US official confirmed to Reuters that the Iranian strikes on the Muwafaq Salti Air Base in Jordan caused damage to about eight F-15 aircraft, which was described as minor, and the planes were returned to service, while an A-10 Thunderbolt lost one of its wings.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, added that US forces launched about 30 interceptor missiles from the Patriot system to confront the attack, amid growing concerns about the US air defense missile stockpile.
In another development, Reuters reported from the Wall Street Journal on Thursday that Iran has resumed the production of ballistic missiles in underground facilities, according to American and Middle Eastern officials. According to the newspaper, Tehran relies mainly on assembling missiles using stored components, in smaller quantities than it produced before the war.
The escalation between the United States and Iran, in addition to the attacks by the Houthis in Yemen on Saudi Arabia, pushed crude prices to exceed the threshold of $100 per barrel for the first time since July, as the Islamic Republic continues to restrict movement across the strait while the American blockade of its ports continues.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that targeting American military installations comes within the framework of “self-defense,” considering that “the aggressive actions carried out by the United States against Iranian commercial ships not only increase the risks of tension in the region, but also constitute a clear threat to regional and international peace and security.”
The US Army announced on Tuesday night that it responded to an Iranian attack targeting an American warship, the second of its kind in less than a week.
The United Nations stressed that freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be “fully restored,” calling for restraint.
In an effort to increase pressure on Tehran in conjunction with the tightening of economic sanctions, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency voted to refer Tehran to the UN Security Council on the grounds of its “non-compliance” with its nuclear obligations.
However, the resolution is likely to remain symbolic, as any action against the Islamic Republic in the Security Council will likely face opposition from Russia and China, and subsequently fall under the veto. Iran condemned the decision.
In a development that threatens to further disrupt energy supply routes, two sources in the Yemeni government told Reuters that the Houthis have reached the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, after taking control of the coastal city of Mokha, amid intensifying battles with government forces backed by Saudi Arabia.
The two sources added that the Houthi attacks pushed the government forces and their allies to retreat south towards Dhubab, overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. They said that controlling the flies and the corresponding Mion Island is essential for controlling the strait.
For his part, Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdel Salam said, in a post on the
On the diplomatic level, Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources told Reuters that Pakistan conveyed to Tehran a Saudi warning calling on it to curb the attacks of its Houthi allies on the Kingdom, in an attempt to contain the escalation.
A senior Iranian official confirmed that the message was conveyed on Tuesday, saying that Tehran's response was that it "does not control the Houthis." On the other hand, two Iranian sources told the agency that Tehran asked the group last week to attack Saudi Arabia, promising it additional funding and weapons, and that leaders in the Revolutionary Guard went to Yemen to help coordinate the attacks.
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, during a phone call with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, discussed the latest regional developments and diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing escalation and enhancing security and stability in the region.
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the two sides discussed joint coordination on regional developments, while Sheikh Mohammed affirmed his country’s support for “all diplomatic efforts and endeavours” aimed at reducing tension.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The war between the United States and Iran will continue beyond the midterm elections in November 2026
Likely · Within months
Oil prices will fall sharply after the end of the war with Iran
Possible · Within months
The Houthis will continue to expand their control in the Red Sea towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What evidence does Trump have about Iran's influence on the US elections?
- Will US sanctions on Hezbollah supporters change Iran's behavior?
- What is the actual extent of damage to US ships in the Strait of Hormuz?
- Will expansion of the no-go zone by Iran lead to permanent disruption of freight traffic?






