The key to the United States' support for Taiwan's security should not only be the strategic geographical location of the first island chain! A comment by scholar Thomas J. Christensen published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on the 21st pointed out that Taiwan is located at the core of the first island chain and indeed has important strategic value. The United States has more important reasons to support Taiwan, including maintaining the credibility of U.S. allies in Asia, supporting democracy, and preventing China from becoming more inclined to use military means to resolve regional disputes due to the success of force.
Christensen pointed out that Taiwan is about 100 nautical miles away from China and is located in an important position on the first island chain in the Western Pacific. In recent years, U.S. officials and government strategic reports have emphasized that if China controls Taiwan, it will be easier to project military power to the second island chain and pose a threat to U.S. regional allies such as Japan and the Philippines. The Trump administration's 2025 National Security Strategy also links Taiwan's security importance to its geographical location, pointing out that Taiwan has direct access to the second island chain and separates Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia into different theaters.
Christensen believes that Taiwan’s strategic value is not limited to the first island chain. Taiwan is also a democratic partner and an important economic partner of the United States, and deserves U.S. help to prevent it from being annexed by force by authoritarian regimes. More importantly, if China successfully launches military operations against Taiwan, it will almost certainly affect Beijing's future attitude towards neighboring countries. Some of these countries are allies of the United States, and several have unresolved sovereignty disputes with China.
He pointed out that what the United States should really pay attention to is not just where China can launch military offensives after taking control of Taiwan, but what kind of China the United States will face in the future, and how confident Beijing will be in using force to solve regional problems. In other words, the impact of conflicts across the Taiwan Strait may extend beyond Taiwan itself and affect the security order of the entire region.
The article also quoted the analysis of Jonathan Caverley, a scholar at the U.S. Naval War College, who pointed out that even if China does not control Taiwan, its military modernization may still enhance its ability to project power to U.S. military assets and regional allies in the Western Pacific. Therefore, we cannot simply assume that China’s acquisition of Taiwan will significantly increase its military projection capabilities.
Christensen said that if the United States regards Taiwan's geographical location as the core reason to support Taiwan's security, it may make the outside world believe that the United States will unconditionally prevent China from controlling Taiwan regardless of the political situation in the Taiwan Strait, thereby weakening the "strategic ambiguity" policy adopted by the United States for a long time.
The core of U.S. policy is to oppose any party's unilateral change of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait in a destabilizing manner. This set of policies retains space for the peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences.
Christensen finally advocated that both the United States and Taiwan should aim to avoid conflicts across the Taiwan Strait. The reasons why the United States supports Taiwan should not only focus on the strategic geographical location of the first island chain, but also focus on maintaining the credibility of allies, supporting democracy, and preventing China from becoming more inclined to use military means to deal with regional disputes due to the success of force. He believes that over-emphasis on geographical factors may not strengthen deterrence, but may make the situation in the Taiwan Strait more dangerous.
