Vance: America and Iran's war will enter a different phase in two months

At a time when the confrontation between the United States and Iran has continued for the seventh month, and its repercussions on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz are worsening, US Vice President J.D. Vance said that the conflict will enter a “completely different phase” within two months, without clarifying the nature of the new phase.

His statements come in light of President Trump's previous assurances that the war will end "immediately after" the midterm elections, indicating a new path of confrontation that coincides with the midterm congressional elections next November.

Vance said, in an interview with the New York Post on board Air Force 2, that President Donald Trump is correct in his expectation that the war will enter a different phase within two months, adding that Trump, as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, is the one who determines “when conflicts begin and when they end.”

The US Vice President added: “We cannot predict the future, but I think the president is right in saying that this matter will enter a completely different phase in two months.”

In an attempt to respond to the growing criticism within the United States, Vance acknowledged that there was “a degree of impatience among the American people,” but said that the United States “is not participating in aggressive operations” at the present time.

Only 4 ships pass through Hormuz

Vance also indicated that navigation traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has regained more than 50 percent of its normal levels, adding that the Iranian regime is gradually losing control over the Strait, and will continue to lose it until the midterm congressional elections.

But preliminary shipping data indicates the opposite; It explained the continued turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, as only four ships crossed the strait on Tuesday, compared to 7 ships the day before, a number significantly lower than the average of the past ten days of 18 ships per day. The transit movement included two ships that entered the strait and two ships that left it, while none of them were giant crude oil tankers or liquefied natural gas tankers.

Before the outbreak of war on February 28, the Strait witnessed the crossing of about 125 large commercial ships daily, including oil and gas tankers, cargo ships, and containers. Nearly 20 percent of the world’s daily supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait.

Tracking data does not necessarily reflect complete navigation; Some ships can turn off transmitters and receivers that determine their identity and location, and therefore do not appear in preliminary statistics.

China demands the opening of the Strait

While the military and economic pressure on Iran continues, China has entered the crisis line again, calling on Washington and Tehran to exercise restraint and return to the diplomatic track.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, during his meeting with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi in Beijing on Wednesday, that the two sides must show wisdom and restraint, return to the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” and engage in substantive consultations.

Wang also urged all parties to take measures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “as soon as possible,” warning of the repercussions of the continued crisis on the stability of energy transport and global supply chains.

The Chinese minister expressed his country's concern about the tension spreading to other regions, saying that Beijing "does not want to see regional tensions extend further to the Red Sea."

Wang called on Washington and Tehran to “rebuild the negotiation mechanism” based on the understandings previously reached, at a time when Beijing is preparing to host high-level talks with the American side.

Chinese positions gain additional importance in light of economic relations with Iran. China is the main buyer of Iranian oil and Tehran's largest trading partner. Beijing has repeatedly called for the restoration of normal and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while avoiding direct criticism of Tehran regarding its threats to navigation.

Wang said that the current developments prove once again that “the existing security structure in the Middle East is insufficient,” calling for its reform and strengthening, while stressing at the same time the stability of his country’s policy towards Iran.

Araqchi: Iran is ready for diplomacy

For his part, Araqchi said that Iran, despite its readiness to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and security, welcomes diplomatic solutions that guarantee the rights of Iranians.

This comes at a time when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirms that his country does not want war, while expressing its readiness to return to the negotiating table, on the condition that it responds to Iranian demands. Pezeshkian had also warned of the repercussions of the economic and living crisis on the country's cohesion, stressing the need to address these pressures so that Iran does not find itself forced to negotiate from a position of weakness.

Explosions on Qeshm Island

On the ground, several explosions were heard on the Iranian island of Qeshm on the night of Tuesday - Wednesday, without an official announcement about their nature or causes. The official Iranian news agency, IRNA, quoted local sources as saying that the sounds of explosions came from the sea.

Explosions have been heard repeatedly on the island located in southern Iran in recent days. Four days ago, local sources reported two explosions from the sea side, while the authorities in Hormozgan Province said earlier that the sounds of explosions in the region resulted from the activity of air defense systems as part of testing and evaluating their capabilities.

These developments coincided with escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz, including renewed American bombing of Iranian drone boats, which kept the strategic waterway at the heart of the confrontation between the two countries.

Disagreement over management of the strait

The future of the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most prominent issues hindering reaching a settlement between Washington and Tehran. Iran adheres to a major role in managing navigation traffic, in coordination with the Sultanate of Oman, and proposes the possibility of imposing passage fees or fees for services provided to ships. The United States opposes this proposal, and insists that commercial ships should be able to cross the strait without restrictions.

Tehran and Muscat had held discussions over a long period on navigation management arrangements, but the disagreement over the nature of these arrangements contributed to the complexity of the broader negotiations between Iran and the United States.

As disputes continued over Hormuz, among other issues, the initial agreement reached in June collapsed, and the war entered its seventh month without clear signs of a final settlement.

In light of the continuing military tension, the decline in ship traffic, and the overlapping of American, Iranian, and Chinese interests regarding energy security, the Strait of Hormuz appears to be more than just an arena for direct confrontation. It has also become a main axis for any possible negotiating track between Washington and Tehran, while pressure is increasing to keep the crisis confined to its current borders and prevent it from spreading to other regions in the Middle East.

In a new method to deceive targets, cyber attackers linked to the Iranian regime have resorted to hiding spyware inside files that appear to be the results of medical examinations. In an attempt to push opponents and critics of the regime around the world to download malicious files on their devices. The competent authorities warn that these methods increasingly rely on impersonating trusted people and building a relationship of trust with victims before luring them into opening files.

The British Cyber ​​Security Agency has warned that Iran is hiding spyware in the form of MRI scan results. With the aim of deceiving critics of the regime around the world and getting them to download malicious files, according to the Telegraph newspaper.

In a rare warning, the National Cyber ​​Security Center (NCSC), affiliated with the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), reported that cyber attackers working for the Iranian regime are using increasingly innovative and sophisticated methods to deceive their targets, and push them to download malware that allows them to be tracked digitally.

Iranian agents were observed impersonating personalities known to the targets via the WhatsApp and Telegram applications. With the aim of “building a relationship of trust” with them, before convincing them to download and open files that appear real and valid.

Fake test results and spyware

The warning was issued regarding the use of fake results of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations in cooperation with intelligence services in both the United States and the Netherlands. These parties reported that hostile parties had been detected using a spyware program known as “Chosen Brick.”

Once this malware is installed on a device, it can collect sensitive information about targets, including contact lists, emails, and social media correspondence, and also makes it possible to eavesdrop on the victim by accessing the device's microphone.

The National Cyber ​​Security Center (NCSC) stated that some of the stolen personal data appeared on pro-Iranian websites dedicated to publishing leaks; This exposed the victims to further harassment.

The National Cyber ​​Security Center, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Dutch Security Service explained that they issued this warning with the aim of alerting potential victims and helping to protect others who are at risk of being targeted.

Tehran's targets include Iranian dissidents living abroad, journalists covering the regime, and others considered a “threat.”

Paul Chichester, director of operations at the National Cybersecurity Center (NCSC), said the details of the spying campaign “reveal how Iran is using relentless digital surveillance to suppress regime critics, by stealing emails, text messages, and hacking devices.”

He added: “We strongly urge, in cooperation with our international partners, individuals at risk to familiarize themselves with the social engineering techniques described in the security warning, and to act in accordance with the preventive advice and guidance contained therein.”

He continued: “We will continue to shed light on the malicious cyber activities practiced by the Iranian state, and support communities by providing practical advice to enhance their personal security on the Internet.”

Software able to remain in hardware

Agencies described the malware targeting the Windows system as “persistent,” meaning that it is able to remain on the device even after it is restarted. This increases its ability to continue its work and access the victim’s data.

There have previously been reports that Iran is using spyware to target opponents, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued a warning weeks after tensions erupted between the United States and Iran in February of this year.

However, the warning issued on Tuesday is the first major cyber warning from Britain since the start of the crisis. This indicates that the relevant agencies have observed a recent increase in relevant activities.

Türkiye stressed that the top priority in Syria currently is for the Syrian Democratic Forces to stop being a threat, given that Israel poses the greatest threat to the stability of its neighbour.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Syria's top priority is for the SDF to stop being a threat or a “hostile element,” adding that “what was initially announced about the completion of the SDF’s dissolution and its integration into state institutions carries, in principle, positive messages, and Turkey is closely following the progress of the process on the ground, and we expect that the implementation will be consistent with the messages announced to the public.”

The leader of the SDF, Mustafa Hussein Abdi (Mazloum Abdi), announced from the People’s Palace in Damascus on August 25, the dissolution of the forces led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, amid Ankara’s welcome of the step, which it described as an “important development” to preserve Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Abdi was appointed as an advisor to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, while the process of integrating SDF members into state institutions is being followed up.

Syria to stability

Fidan said, in statements to Turkish journalists after his visit to Syria last Sunday and Monday, which were published in Ankara on Wednesday, that “the progress achieved so far can be developed.” We are aware of the existing threats and the path that must be followed. There is a continuous path and we must continue it towards success. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, on December 8, 2024, I said that everything had just begun.

He added: “At the stage we have reached, positive things are happening at the tactical and strategic levels. Many of the problems that have shackled us for 40 or 50 years, especially the issue of terrorism that originally originated from Syria and Iraq, have made their way to a solution.”

Fidan considered that his stay and his accompanying delegation in Damascus, during his two-day visit, gave him an indication that life in Syria was beginning to return to normal, noting that he discussed all issues during his meeting, which lasted nearly two hours, with Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa. He pointed out that removing Syria from the sanctions list removed obstacles to investment there, and removing it from the terrorism list was extremely important.

Israel is the greatest danger

The Turkish Foreign Minister believed that the greatest threat to stability in Syria now is Israel, saying: “Israel does not like the neighboring countries to be strong and stable, as it considers that a threat, and because of this definition of the threat, it resorts to actions to destabilize these countries.”

He added: “At some point, Israel will either have to recognize this approach and accept to live in peace with its region, or it will continue these aggressive policies and become more isolated within the international community.” Fidan pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu views all countries surrounding Israel as a threat, and that Israel derives its strength from the weakness of those countries.

He stated that there are other operations that can be implemented from the point of view of the actors seeking to destabilize the region, led by Israel, stressing that his country will not stand idly by. Rather, it will actively move to confront these practices.

Fidan explained that any negative situation in a region affects other countries as well. For example, Jordan is affected by everything that is happening in Iraq and everything that is happening in Syria, there is no escape from that. So, everyone is seeking cooperation in this new, highly tense phase.

He stated that the countries of the region realized that stability is possible, and that things are achievable if they work together, and that there is no other choice but to work together, adding: “Either we work together to solve the problems, or, as was the practice in the past, we will go to the dominant power or its representative here and say: Burn whatever you want, but do not touch me.”

He explained that cooperation between the countries of the region is currently being used in the Iranian-American war as well, and work is being done to institutionalize it increasingly. We are engaged in an effort based on cooperation and peaceful diplomacy to confront Israel’s destabilizing role in the region, and this constructive approach would create a broader area of ​​stability in the Middle East.