Analysis by CNN's Stephen Collinson.
(CNN) - President Donald Trump's warm reception for Chinese leader Xi Jinping suggests that a major global moment is on the horizon.
In an unusual move, Trump headed to the windy Joint Andrews Air Force Base to greet Xi at the step of his plane upon his arrival, Wednesday, for a two-night visit. The two leaders exchanged conversations with their wives, before they walked side by side on a red carpet. There was one hiccup in the carefully orchestrated spectacle, however, when a plane participating in an air show sliced through the sky with a loud roar during the playing of the national anthem, causing Trump to shiver and show signs of annoyance on his face.
However, these images suggest that the top leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world are meeting to shape the future of the planet. The timing of the visit also seems very appropriate, at a time when the United States and China are entering a new technological phase, amid warnings from industry leaders that artificial intelligence may soon get out of control.
But the official review can be deceiving. Xi's state visit is in no way a counterpart to the summits held by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which helped steer the Cold War toward a less acrimonious end.
First, it is expected that the summit will end without an agreement to protect humanity similar to the agreements that limited nuclear weapons in the 1980s. Four decades later, such steps might include placing limits on the development of artificial intelligence, or the United States and China providing mutual transparency about their technology sectors, which helps build trust and enhance safety.
There is still a chance that the summit will surprise everyone, but achieving this will require going beyond traditional Chinese diplomatic norms, which require careful and complex negotiations before meetings to arrange what results can be announced. In fact, the positive outcome will be limited to an extension of the bilateral trade truce announced on Wednesday evening, new efforts to stabilize Washington and Beijing, limited initiatives on artificial intelligence, the flow of fentanyl, trade, and avoiding military clashes.
But why do expectations seem so low, at a time when the rest of the world is watching the US and China compete for the top spot in the AI race?
The issue of artificial intelligence in particular exemplifies the size of the gap between the two adversaries. Each party believes that it is capable of achieving superiority, and both parties realize the size of the stake in their struggle for the status of the superpower. As Trump said: “Whoever wins, AI wins.” Both parties resist imposing any fundamental restrictions on a vital sector to support economic growth.
Many analysts believe that China is lagging behind in the AI race, and therefore will not agree to slow down the sector in return. Beijing typically views any move to limit its technological rise as part of a Western strategy aimed at depriving it of its rightful place in the global order.
The difference in personality between Trump, who tends to improvise, and Xi, who has a considered approach, is not conducive to making spontaneous decisions. Also, the political systems of the United States and China are so different, and increasingly focused on confronting each other, that they have little in common.
Each side wants to avoid conflict, but lacks the leverage necessary to force concessions.
Trump's declining numbers in opinion polls, amid the war with Iran, risk eroding his influence on the global stage. He discovered last year that Chinese threats to cut rare earth exports to the United States could derail his trade campaign. In contrast, Xi does not face concerns about angry voters in his authoritarian country, and relentlessly protects his internal authority, but he faces a crisis in the real estate sector and economic problems at home.
The limits of Trump's summit diplomacy
It is fair to say that most global summits do not achieve everything that is expected of them. The meetings between the leaders of the United States and China are drawing unfavorable comparisons with the historic meetings held by President Richard Nixon and Chinese leader Mao Zedong in the 1970s.
However, Trump often gives the impression that he is more concerned with the appearances of world leaders' summits than with their substance, which is one reason why Xi's meetings this week may not produce tangible results.
Neither his high-level meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his first term, nor his meeting in Alaska last year with President Vladimir Putin, yielded significant results except for photos of Trump with leaders he shows admiration for.
Trump has been looking forward to Xi Jinping's visit for months, and will seek to at least match the symbolism of the warm reception he saw as evidence of the high personal respect he received during his visit to Beijing in May.
Trump is not the first American president to believe that his close personal relationships with foreign leaders are decisive in world affairs. In times of crisis, such connections can be important.
Lyle Goldstein, a senior scholar and director of the Asia Program at the Center for Defense Priorities, said these meetings were a "good thing" and that personal diplomacy between Xi and Trump had contributed to stabilizing relations and easing military tensions, including over Taiwan.
However, Trump took his belief in the importance of his personal role to new levels. During his 2024 campaign rallies, for example, he routinely boasted of his “wonderful relationship” with Xi, in a way that seemed far removed from the issues at the top of voters’ concerns. In Beijing, Trump again praised this relationship, telling his host: “It is an honor to be your friend... There are those who describe this summit as the largest ever.”
Trump's desire to protect what he sees as personal connections with leaders often prompts him to make excuses on their behalf. For example, when asked in July about allegations of Chinese interference in the 2020 elections, he told reporters: “We're also taking action on them; it's not a one-way street.” The president this month also downplayed reports that Beijing provided Iran with satellite images of a military base in Jordan ahead of an attack on US forces; China denied what was stated in the Wall Street Journal report, which was based on statements by two unidentified American officials.
In contrast, the Chinese leader rarely reciprocates Trump with the same amount of personal affection; It is clear that he is pursuing a long-term diplomatic strategy that will continue even after the 47th president leaves office. Former officials point out that Xi is more willing to engage in spontaneous, unprepared, private talks than his tough predecessor, Hu Jintao. However, his movements remain restricted by Chinese Communist Party protocols and cautious diplomatic norms. He also clearly avoided the flattering tactics that other leaders have resorted to in trying to win over Trump.
Some Republicans expressed sharp criticism of Trump's approach. In extraordinary remarks on Tuesday, Senator Roger Wicker, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, strongly criticized the meeting, saying: “Our Commander-in-Chief should keep in mind that his guest is a brutal and oppressive dictator - who did not come through elections - who seeks to dominate his neighbors, and whose massive military arsenal is aimed directly at the United States of America.”
Artificial intelligence raises global expectations from Trump and Xi
The Xi-Trump summit has been given added significance by recent warnings from artificial intelligence developers and industry leaders that their products could soon spiral out of control and threaten humanity.
But on Tuesday, Trump renamed artificial intelligence “superintelligence,” and told the United Nations General Assembly that he “completely rejects any attempt to establish a global plan to control” this technology. The rapid expansion of the use of artificial intelligence in military applications also adds another dimension of complexity, because any step taken by Beijing or Washington to limit this technology could give the rival superpower a potential advantage on the battlefield.
The president's rejection of any form of regulation, whether domestic or international, has already eliminated the possibility of a major US-China agreement on the issue. Although China expresses reservations about external oversight, it has shown greater openness to the idea of establishing institutional safeguards and building a global consensus on how to deal with the development of artificial intelligence, although the extent to which it is willing to go beyond political rhetoric to actual steps remains unclear.
Artificial intelligence is seeing widespread adoption in China; The nature of the closed political community there also prevented the kind of controversy and oppositional reactions to this technology, which clearly emerged during the midterm election campaign in the United States.
At a UN Security Council meeting with officials in the artificial intelligence sector on Wednesday, Fu Cong, Beijing’s permanent representative to the United Nations, launched a scathing attack on “some major countries” - a veiled reference to the United States - accusing them of forming “a narrow bloc based on the principle of ‘us versus them’” and of forcing other countries to use their technologies instead of Chinese ones.
