The number of buildings transferred during the first ten months of 2026 in Liudu has been released, with a total of 169,178 buildings, a slight increase of 0.23% from 168,785 buildings in the same period last year; there were 17,566 buildings in October alone, a monthly decrease of 2.11% and an annual increase of 3.40%. Experts believe that after the real estate market experienced credit crunch and transaction downturn, transaction volume gradually showed signs of stabilization. The first quarter of this year will be the lowest point in transaction volume during this wave of real estate market correction.
Real estate market trend expert Li Tongrong pointed out that the positive transaction volume does not mean that housing prices have stopped falling, but it means that market liquidity may be gradually improving. Especially as the local elections at the end of the year are about to come to an end, policy uncertainties are expected to decrease. In addition, housing prices continue to correct, sellers have increased pressure to make concessions at the end of the year, and the stock market shock may lead to the reallocation of some funds. Seven major favorable factors are gradually converging. The end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 may become a rare sweet period for home purchases since this wave of housing market corrections.
Li Tongrong pointed out that although the trading volume in Liudu in the first ten months only increased by 0.23% year-on-year, the market has shown signs of stabilization. Among them, Kaohsiung has an annual increase of 9.22%, Taipei has an annual increase of 5.70%, and New Taipei has an annual increase of 2.12%; Taichung has an annual decrease of 7.40%, Taoyuan has an annual decrease of 3.02%, and Tainan has an annual decrease of 1.87%, showing that the market performance of each region is significantly differentiated. Li Tongrong analyzed that the number of transferred units in building transactions includes the completion and handover of pre-sold houses in the past, which cannot be completely regarded as the purchase of existing houses in the current period. However, the overall transfer volume is gradually stabilizing, which can still be regarded as an initial signal of improvement in the liquidity of the housing market. "The stabilization of volume is a turning point in the market, and rationalization of prices is the foundation for recovery."
Li Tongrong believes that the sweet spot for home buying may appear at the end of the year, not due to a single factor, but the gradual intersection of seven major conditions including policy, price, supply and demand, capital and market psychology.
First, policy: political uncertainty has decreased after the election, and policies are expected to return to economic fundamentals.
During local elections, government housing policies often face multiple pressures from public complaints about high housing prices, housing justice, and industrial prosperity, and policy adjustments are easily affected by the election. After the election at the end of November, the uncertainty of the election is expected to be reduced, and the government will have the opportunity to more pragmatically review housing loan funds, credit control and home replacement demand, and appropriately adjust excessive tightening policies. However, post-election does not mean that the central bank will inevitably relax credit controls. What is really worth looking forward to is that policy adjustments can be more in line with market fundamentals and reduce unnecessary trading resistance.
Second, technical aspects: transaction volume has picked up first, but housing prices have not yet completely stopped falling.
Li Tongrong said that from a technical analysis, the RE-BKD value, the construction volume, and the construction volume have not yet reached a golden intersection with the license volume, RE-OBV trading momentum has not yet completed the improvement, and the short-term momentum of the RE-MACD trading price has not yet turned positive, indicating that housing prices have not stopped falling. In a housing market boom cycle, transaction volume usually bottoms out first, and housing prices then stop falling. When market transactions gradually resume but prices are still in the correction stage, it is easier for buyers to obtain reasonable transaction conditions.
Third, the supply side: Builders will eliminate inventory at the end of the year, and incentives for price concessions will increase.
At the end of the year, builders are faced with annual performance settlement, inventory reduction and capital allocation needs. Some construction projects may be accelerated through price concessions, payment terms adjustments or other promotional programs. Especially in areas with large supply and slow sales, buyers may obtain more favorable trading conditions.
Fourth, the seller’s mentality: Some homeowners have adjusted their funds, and the bargaining space for existing houses has expanded.
Factors such as holding costs, loan pressure, home replacement needs and asset allocation may prompt some homeowners to increase their willingness to sell. When buyers in the market are still cautious, owners who are eager to sell their homes may negotiate a reasonable price to facilitate the deal. For owner-occupier buyers with sufficient funds and clear loan terms, this is an opportunity to actively search for suitable properties.
Fifth, the financial aspect: Credit controls are fine-tuned, and the buyer’s financial conditions are expected to gradually improve.
The central bank has previously adjusted some financing conditions for home replacements and builders, indicating that policies are beginning to take into account financial stability and normal market operations. If the post-election policies are further adjusted in the direction of precise management, it will help reduce the financial barriers for some home-owners and house-changers. However, the buyer must still refer to the actual loan approval conditions of the bank and should not regard expectations of future relaxation as an established fact.
Sixth, stock and real estate rotation: The stock market is experiencing high levels of volatility, and some profit-making funds may be diverted to the real estate market.
Li Tongrong analyzed that in recent years, Taiwan stocks have been driven by the AI industry and have accumulated considerable gains. However, when the stock market is in a high-level volatile stage, some investors may choose to take profits and readjust asset allocation. In particular, after a period of correction in the housing market, if housing prices are gradually rationalized and the policy environment becomes clearer after the election, it may attract some stock market profits to shift to real estate, especially the long-term demand for real estate for owner-occupiers, high-asset groups and prime locations. However, stock market funds do not necessarily flow into the real estate market. They still depend on stock market trends, mortgage conditions and real estate investment returns. Stock market shocks prompt the reallocation of funds, and corrections in housing prices create opportunities for funds to enter the market.
Seventh, demand side: The market still has the advantage of the buyer, with both option and bargaining rights.
The current real estate market has not yet seen full-scale panic buying or price chasing. Buyers have ample time to compare locations, products, prices and payment terms. Once market confidence gradually recovers in the future, the bargaining space for some high-quality items may shrink. Therefore, the biggest advantage for buyers at this stage is not only that housing prices may become more reasonable, but also that they have more options and bargaining rights at the same time.
Li Tongrong pointed out that many home buyers always hope to buy at the lowest point in house prices, but ignore that when house prices really hit the bottom, the transaction volume has often picked up significantly, and the seller's willingness to make concessions may also gradually decrease. The real sweet spot for home buying should meet three conditions at the same time, including "market transactions are gradually recovering, housing prices still have room for correction, and buyers still have the dominant power in bargaining."
In particular, the current K-shaped differentiation of the housing market is obvious. The degree of price correction may be very different between areas with strong support from the technology industry and employment population and mature living functions, and areas with oversupply and high investment demand. Therefore, the sweet spot for home buying at the end of the year does not mean that all areas are worth entering, but that buyers with actual needs can be more active in looking for properties with reasonable prices and good conditions.
Li Tongrong believes that home buyers at this stage should be cautiously optimistic about the future housing market. The gradual stabilization of trading volume and the increase in policy adjustment space are all positive signals, but the price correction has not yet completely ended, and the market will not fully recover simultaneously. For self-occupied home buyers, there is no need to wait and see indefinitely because of worries about housing prices falling again, nor should they rush to chase prices just because the transaction volume has recovered. They should prioritize locations, products and reasonably priced items based on their own financial capabilities, and use the market conditions at the end of the year to strive for the best transaction price.
