Analysis: It is difficult to break through the Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen and China may reduce its reliance on the relationship between the two

The Democratic Party's victory in the U.S. midterm elections has severely damaged President Trump's prestige. In addition, the United States and China still have great differences on economic and trade issues, and the development of relations between the two countries has attracted attention. Scholars believe that the third Sichuan-Xi meeting this year, which is expected to be held during the APEC Shenzhen Summit in November, is unlikely to have a major breakthrough. China may also reduce its reliance on the relationship between Trump and Xi and strengthen its relationship with the Democratic Party.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held a video conference on the 6th. According to reports from foreign media and Chinese state media, the United States urges China to fulfill its rare earth supply and agricultural product purchase commitments, while China has expressed concerns about the recent economic and trade restrictions imposed by the United States against China.

Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported that Luo Minghui, associate professor of public policy and global affairs at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, believed that the above-mentioned phone call showed that the two sides still adhere to their respective positions before the "Sichuan-Xi meeting" in Shenzhen. It is expected that this meeting will have some "low-hanging fruits that are easy to achieve," such as more trade and investment council details and progress in the field of AI, but it is unlikely to achieve major breakthroughs.

Sun Chenghao, an associate researcher at the Center for Strategic and Security Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing, believes that after Donald Trump's defeat in the U.S. midterm elections, it is even more important to show results to American farmers and companies, so he urges China to fulfill its procurement and supply commitments; China is concerned about whether both sides can implement consensus in a reciprocal manner, and opposes the draft rules recently proposed by the United States to expand foreign investment restrictions.

Sun Chenghao said that what is worth paying attention to in the "Sichuan-Xi meeting" in Shenzhen is whether the two sides can clarify the order and timetable for the implementation of various commitments, and whether they can negotiate in a timely manner when new restrictive measures emerge to avoid affecting the already negotiated cooperation.

The South China Morning Post reported that Fudan University professor Zhao Minghao said that China attaches great importance to "maintaining strategic stability." The decline in Trump's personal political prestige and the checks and balances in the U.S. Congress will make bilateral relations more complicated. He believes that China will pay more attention to strengthening communication with the Democratic Party.

Zhao Minghao believes that the results of the U.S. midterm elections will weaken Trump's ability to fulfill his promises, and China may begin to try to make the agreement between the two countries less dependent on the personal relationship between Trump and Xi, and instead pay closer attention to what the White House "can achieve without congressional support."

Zhou Bo, a senior researcher at Tsinghua University’s Center for Strategic and Security Studies, pointed out that although the defeat in the U.S. midterm elections may slightly weaken Trump’s negotiating position with China, it will not fundamentally change the relationship between the two countries. China will also wait and see, but will not fundamentally adjust its policy towards the United States.