Israeli intelligence shows that Iran is coordinating with its regional allies, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Youth Movement, to prepare to launch an attack on Israel. Relevant reports pointed out that the Tehran authorities’ move was to integrate all forces with Iran as the axis and seek simultaneous actions by multiple forces to avoid a recurrence of the poor coordination in the attack on October 7, 2023.
The Jerusalem Post reported that based on this assessment, Iran intends to integrate Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, Yemen's Houthis and Iraqi pro-Iran militias into a single war effort.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an armed invasion from the Gaza Strip into areas adjacent to Israel, but other fronts were not launched simultaneously or fully coordinated.
Internal Hamas documents seized by the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip after the attack showed that the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had tried to expand the conflict, including drawing more battlefields such as Lebanon, Syria and the Sinai Peninsula into the war, emphasizing the need to "connect and prepare for external fronts" and to reach a consensus in advance on daily and wartime communication mechanisms.
According to public assessment reports by the United States and Israel, Iran and Hezbollah did not know in advance the full details of the October 7 plan or the specific implementation date.
This assessment shows that Sinwa believes that Hamas's initial attack, if successful, will attract Hezbollah and Iran to join a larger operation. Although Hezbollah opened fire in the north, it did not launch a simultaneous large-scale attack on the scale of Hamas's offensive that morning.
Iran plans multi-front action against Israel
According to Arab media reports, Tehran is allegedly trying to precisely fill this gap. The relevant planning is intended to allow multiple fronts to launch an offensive against Israel at the same time, and to incorporate multi-front operations into strategic considerations from the beginning.
Khalil al-Hayya, who took over as the leader of Hamas in July this year, is said to have good relations with Iran and has been one of the core figures responsible for maintaining relations with Tehran for many years.
There are also signs that Iran is trying to rebuild the "Axis of Resistance" and restore coordination mechanisms between various fronts. A report released last month stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had detected resumption of coordination between Hamas and Hezbollah, with the assistance of Iran, to increase pressure on Israel from both the north and the south.
The Israel Defense Forces assesses that Hamas and Hezbollah have begun coordinating and intensifying their operations in recent weeks.
Iran renews push for terror group talks
Recent reports indicate that senior officials of Iran's Quds Force have held talks with commanders of Hezbollah, the Youth Movement and Iraqi militia groups on expanding the confrontation.
Two senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that during the previous relatively calm period, senior leaders of the Quds Force held conference calls with commanders from the three fronts, and Iranian advisors were also working with them on the ground.
At the same time, there were also reports that Iran was actively accelerating the production of missiles and drones and restoring its previously damaged combat capabilities.
The balance of power within Iran's axis has changed. According to relevant assessments, with the heavy losses to Hezbollah and the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, militia organizations in Iraq and youth movement organizations in Yemen have become more important.
At the same time, Israel has discovered that in addition to the continuous joint military exercises, the operational and personal relationships between the various forces have become closer, and the coordination of political and military decision-making among the axis members has also improved.
Today, the regional reality in which the Iranian camp is located is different from that before October 7, 2023. The roles played by Iraq and Yemen are now more critical.
