Indeed, frustration is high among immigrants in Saxony-Anhalt. Among them is Tariq Rajab, a young Syrian man who arrived in Germany 10 years ago and holds German citizenship. Tariq, who works in a specialized motor rehabilitation clinic in Magdeburg and has two children preparing to enter school, openly confirmed that he had begun making plans to leave the state. He added in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that reviewing the party's program in the state was a "shock" for him, especially with regard to studying and separating immigrant children or those of immigrant origins, such as his children who hold German citizenship and were born in Germany, and teaching them by professors of immigrant origins in preparation for their deportation.
Tariq confirms that he and many of his friends in the state are all discussing the issue of leaving for another state that “appreciates their work and will be a safe place for them and their families.” Indeed, the word “safety” is repeated on the lips of those of immigrant background in the state. One of them expressed that he no longer feels safe, especially since “his wife is veiled,” as he said. Therefore, he fears increased feelings of hostility towards her and the possibility of her being exposed to insults or violence because of her hijab.
Until now, it is unclear to what extent the party will be able, if it takes power in the state, to implement its policies related to immigrants, since the federal government is responsible for immigration policy in general, but analysts say that it can undoubtedly make the lives of immigrants more difficult in the state.
On the education front, the party also wants to change school curricula to reduce the repetition of Germany's historical responsibility for Nazi crimes, in exchange for focusing on the country's achievements. He also wants to raise German flags in front of schools and force students to sing the national anthem. Raising the German flag is currently linked in Germany to extreme nationalist sentiments, and raising it is not recommended.
However, these and other plans led Chancellor Merz to describe the Alternative for Germany as pursuing a policy of “ethnic cleansing.” In a heated debate in Parliament days after the state elections, Merz said that the mass deportation plans that the Alternative for Germany wants to implement are nothing but synonymous with ethnic cleansing based on origin and skin color.
Mertz warned that millions of immigrants working in Germany are considered essential to German society. He continued: “If workers in Germany are forced to leave because of the deportation policy that you are promoting, then vital sectors will not be able to work, and no nursing home will remain open, no hospital will be able to receive patients, or a restaurant will keep its doors open.”
Mass deportation... a popular idea
As a reminder, the Alternative for Germany party repeatedly presents its policies on the “mass re-deportation” of immigrants. Party officials, including Zigmund, participated in a secret conference revealed by German journalists, held in the state of Brandburg two years ago, which discussed the mass deportation of immigrants and those of immigrant origins. At the time, the conference sparked a scandal and an internal outcry because of its similarities to the meeting held by the Nazis nearby in which they discussed what became known as the “Final Solution” that led to the “Nazi Holocaust.”
In parallel, in addition to “mass deportation,” the party close to the Kremlin is promoting stopping granting asylum to Ukrainians and also stopping supporting Kiev militarily and materially. He wants to restore relations with Russia and return to importing cheap Russian gas. Although the states have no role in foreign policy, the party can promote its policies louder from a position of authority. In environmental policy, the party wants to stop the development of wind farms and reopen highly polluting coal mines. All of these are considered by economic experts to create a climate hostile to investments, especially since the states have invested heavily in renewable energy in recent years.
The party's positions close to Moscow raise concerns among German politicians, and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that the party would be exposed to secret intelligence reports if it took over the mandate, which it might use for anti-German purposes. For your information, Saxony-Anhalt hosts a number of military barracks for the German army, and therefore contains sensitive information related to support for Ukraine and NATO. German media reported that Pistorius is considering withdrawing the “rapid response folder” in case of emergency, which every state must preserve and apply in case of emergency. The minister fears that the 1,000-page “volume” will fall into the hands of the extreme right-wing party. For fear of leaking information to Russia.
All eyes are on the next elections...and Washington’s positions
After the great victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany party in Saxony-Anhalt, and its preparations for other local elections in which it will also come to the forefront in the state of Mecklenburg-East Pomerania, calls are returning to ban it and stop its expansion. However, these calls are still weak, surrounded by criticism for fear of increasing popular resentment and the failure of the ban in the Supreme Court due to the lack of sufficient evidence. However, in the meantime, the extremist party supported the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, owner of the “X” platform, and his ally, US President Donald Trump, who congratulated him on his recent victory. In fact, this support increases the complexity of relations between Berlin and Washington, especially after Trump’s congratulations to the party on the “X” platform led to the Chancellery canceling a scheduled phone call between Meretz and Trump, without announcing a reason. This was later followed by a warning from the German government spokesman that Berlin does not need comments from abroad on internal affairs. This, while far-right opponents have been taking part in large demonstrations for days, chanting: “Never again,” in reference to the legacy of the Nazis. However, fears are increasing day by day.
The latest leaks from diplomatic circles in the international organization indicate that Rebecca Greenspan, the former Vice President of Costa Rica, is currently at the top of the list of contenders for the position after the first consultative rounds within the Security Council, but the race is still open among the eight candidates.
Also, veteran diplomats in the organization hesitate to make predictions, given the deep division that prevails in relations between the five permanent members of the Council, that is, the United States, the Russian Federation, China, Britain, and France, which is reminiscent of the most tense periods of the Cold War.
Here we point out that the provisions of the internal regulations of the Security Council stipulate that the names of the candidates competing for the position of Secretary-General are referred by the Council to the General Assembly to choose one of them, and that the objection of any permanent member to a candidate permanently destroys his chances, even if he obtains the support of the majority of members.
Here, one of the European diplomats, who accompanied the election of three Secretary-Generals of the organization, stops at the insistence of the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, to run, at a time when it is widely believed that the position will go to a woman this time, despite the strong objection expressed by China and Russia to his management of the IAEA in more than one sensitive file, such as the war in Ukraine, nuclear cooperation between Britain and Australia, and dealing with the pollution that resulted from the Fukushima reactor accident in Japan, and the nuclear program. Iranian.
According to this diplomat, Grossi is the candidate preferred by the US administration, but it is keen to avoid revealing its cards behind supporting him. Moreover, it is strongly supported by the current right-wing Argentine government, which Washington considers the main pillar of its regional policy.
Moreover, many observers claim that his performance at the international agency was characterized by complete bias towards American and Western positions, which repeatedly called for severe criticism from Russia, and also from China, which more than once launched a harsh attack against him, which is uncharacteristic of the Chinese diplomatic dictionary. In addition, according to the aforementioned diplomat, the Trump administration does not favor the arrival of a woman to the position of Secretary-General, although it will not disclose this publicly. Hence, the aforementioned diplomat does not rule out that Washington, in its undeclared bet on Grossi, would go so far as to “barter” the lifting of the Russian and Chinese “veto” on his nomination, for generous concessions in other high-ranking positions within the international organization or its specialized agencies.
For the first time, since the formation of the first Iraqi government after 2003, the current government headed by businessman and financier Ali Al-Zaidi opened files that were either kept quiet or feared to be dealt with loudly. Within the “100 days” that the government recently completed, its program included the two most important items that the Prime Minister placed among his top priorities: restricting weapons to the state, and fighting the financial and administrative corruption that is rampant in the country. In fact, this situation threatens the state's very existence, putting it on the verge of bankruptcy. On the other hand, while the anti-corruption file appears to be an internal matter, the arms control file, as much as it is an internal matter represented by the tense relationship between the government and the forces of unruly arms, has two dimensions. The first is regional, related to the nature of the relationship between Iraq and Iran. The second is international, represented by the relationship between Iraq and the United States. Of course, there remains a common denominator between the weapons issue and the nature of the complex Iraqi-American-Iranian relationship.
Ali al-Zaidi, the Iraqi Prime Minister, appears to be in a comfortable position in terms of fulfilling his promise to begin implementing the anti-corruption and arms control sections of his government program. However, after his government exceeded the “100-day” period, he is still suffering from the siege of political appointments. The main issue here is that the government is still missing 9 ministerial portfolios that are currently managed by proxy due to disagreements between the political blocs over their shares of these ministries.
Although Al-Zaidi does not seem responsible for completing the government “cabinet” (formation), which requires political consensus between the forces that won the elections and won parliamentary seats that qualify them to obtain portfolios, the problem lies in the fact that the delay in completing the “cabinet” keeps the government on the edge. The resignation of any two of its ministers, under any circumstances, makes it lose its legitimacy to remain, and leaves the Prime Minister besieged by political forces, some of which refuse to complete the remaining portfolios, so that Al-Zaidi remains a hostage to his pressure.
Then there remain the two issues related to the corruption and weapons sections.
Fight corruption
Anti-corruption measures began four months ago through what was called the “dawn raid,” during which a large number of deputies and senior officials were arrested, and ministers, deputies, and other senior officials fled. However, with the delay in opening the file of those currently detained, or referring them to the courts, their remaining behind bars without trial has made some people feel that there is a “project” for a financial settlement with them.
In fact, this situation coincides with the start of government measures to arrest low-level officials and refer them to the judiciary. It gives the impression that the anti-corruption campaign has shifted from fighting corruption as an “integrated system,” to fighting bribery, which is one aspect of corruption and nothing more.
Weapon confinement
As for the issue of confining weapons to the state, it has turned into a thorny issue after Iran and its Shiite “coordinating framework” forces were able to contain the matter by extending the deadline for dealing with the weapons file, instead of restricting it completely by September 30 until after this date.
The stick and the wheel
Amid these facts, the political parties are seeking to put more sticks in the wheel of the Prime Minister who is searching for an achievement to be achieved amid strong popular support from a large number of political and public forces. Among the most prominent steps aimed at containing Al-Zaidi’s steps are attempts to find pretexts to disrupt the anti-corruption campaign, so that it is limited to the middle circles in the state.
On the other hand, the strong Iranian involvement in the issue of restricting weapons to the state, and making it a regional issue linked to the conflict between the United States and Iran, led to the extension of the deadline for restricting weapons. This is an attempt to empty Al-Zaidi’s steps of their true content. As a reminder, the Iraqi government had announced that the date for confiscating weapons to the state would be September 30 (current), which is the scheduled date for the withdrawal of the international coalition. But Iran has taken a position on the factions that refuse to hand over their weapons, most notably the “Hezbollah Brigades,” the “Al-Nujaba Movement,” and the “Loyal Ansar Allah Movement,” which had previously announced that it “has an ideological connection” with Iran. Therefore, its weapons transcend the geographical borders of countries, as they are a “resistance” weapon, according to the narrative it adopts in its political discourse.
Secret and announced visits
This Iranian entry in favor of these factions, and ignoring the date of September 30, was first embodied in a secret visit - as is usual - by the commander of the “Quds Force” in the Iranian “Revolutionary Guard” Ismail Qaani, followed less than a week later by an announced visit to the head of the Iranian Shura Council, Muhammad Bagher Qalibaf, that extended for days. Then it was followed by another secret visit to the representative of the Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, during which the nature of the relationship between Iraq and Iran was determined, by pressuring the forces of the “coordination framework” to adopt another policy, different from the policy drawn up by the Zaidi Prime Minister to get rid of foreign influence in Iraq.
Qalibaf’s visit, according to informed Iraqi sources, did not achieve all of its goals, especially in terms of “softening the Zaidi position on the issue of restricting weapons to the state.” According to what was revealed behind the scenes of the meetings and conferences that Qalibaf held, whether with the Iraqi Prime Minister or with the leaders of the “coordination framework,” in the presence of Al-Zaidi, the latter remained committed to the September 30 date because; Being committed to the American side in this regard.
According to circulating estimates, Al-Zaidi, during private meetings with representatives and officials, did not intend to waive that deadline. On the contrary, he could go beyond what the political forces that are pressuring him for appeasement imagine. Moreover, it is not possible for him to submit his resignation, contrary to what some forces involved in corruption hope to “shuffle the cards” again. Rather, observers are likely that the Prime Minister will resort to the people in a frank speech, hoping to weaken the position of these forces, especially if Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the “Shiite National Movement,” the largest Shiite bloc in the country, joins his line of support.
Al-Zaidi has no intention of compromising on the time limit for restricting weapons... and he is not thinking of submitting his resignation
High in status
Iran, for its part, intensified its pressure on the “coordination framework,” and on Al-Zaidi together, especially after the “coordination framework” was rearranged by adding a new member to its leadership, Shibl Al-Zaidi, leader of the “Imam Ali” faction and head of the “Services” bloc in the Iraqi parliament, following the escape of Ahmed Al-Asadi, the former Minister of Labor and Social Affairs and a leader in the “framework,” after he was accused of corruption files, and the resignation of Abu Al-Wala’ Al-Wala’i, the Secretary-General. For the “Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades.”
In this context, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei personally entered the line, when he sent his special representative, Mohsen Qomi, with the aim of containing the repercussions of restricting weapons to the state, which the Iraqi Prime Minister insists on. At the same time, Khamenei's envoy urged the "coordinating framework" forces to avoid any clash between the "coordinating framework" forces and the armed factions that refuse to hand over their weapons to the state by the end of the specified deadline.
Iran does not want pretexts for a collision
The goal that Iran aims to achieve by following this new policy is not to give the government any excuse to clash with the factions, by forming committees, starting discussions, and establishing mechanisms for the purpose of handing over weapons, and determining which weapon, and what is the return.
This means manipulating the deadline, but in a way that does not lead to angering the government that has an understanding with Washington, nor does it lead to provoking Washington, as no one knows the limits of its reaction if the Iraqi government does not meet the arms control deadline.
... Concerns regarding the “coordination framework”
In this context, Dr. Ghaleb Al-Daami, professor of media at Al-Mustansiriya University, told Asharq Al-Awsat, “(The coordination framework) feels the dangers resulting from the arms restriction, and also knows how serious Washington is in this file, which made it try as much as possible to search for an outlet or some way to refrain from implementing the arms restriction 100 percent, but at the same time achieve American satisfaction with Iraq.”
Al-Daami added, “The forces of the (coordination framework) also know very well that confining weapons to the state and combating corruption are ultimately in the interest of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, while the (coordination framework) does not want any prime minister to achieve great success. Thus he is allowed to achieve limited success; So that they do not branch out...but rather remain under their control.”
Then he explained that “(the framework), in this case, as much as it wants to avoid inflaming the situation with America, at the same time it does not want the prime minister to appear as a popular hero in front of the people,” stressing that “this behavior pursued by the Shiite forces is not limited to the treatment of Al-Zaidi only, but rather it is a consistent policy that I followed with all previous prime ministers, although the opportunity now is different... as the balance is now tilted in favor of Al-Zaidi as he enjoys great popular support that is difficult to resist, and despite this, attempts are being made to circumvent it.”
No to overthrowing the government
For his part, Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the “State of Law” coalition, warned one day after the visit of the high-level Iranian envoy, of attempts to ignite “fires” in the political scene and confuse the Iraqi reality.
Al-Maliki affirmed, in press statements, his support for the “coordination framework” for the continuation of the government and his refusal to change or overthrow it. He said, according to a statement issued by his office last Wednesday, that Iraq “is going through a sensitive phase that requires a high degree of wisdom and responsibility,” noting that there are attempts to confuse the political scene, at a time when the “coordination framework” continues to support the government out of concern for the country’s stability and its highest interests.
Then the former Prime Minister stressed the need to address the issue of confiscating weapons in the hands of the state, “away from escalation or confrontation,” warning of “this file turning into a conflict with me.”
