Qiang Pi becomes stronger and fatter! The Meteorological Administration adjusts the path to the east again. Experts analyze thousands of paths to expose the probability of landfall.

The strong Typhoon Qiangpi has strengthened again and the storm circle has also expanded. However, the latest path of the Meteorological Administration has been adjusted eastward again. The center will pass some distance from Taiwan and the storm circle will pass the land. However, other countries still believe that the typhoon will be quite close to Taiwan. Meteorological expert Jia Xingxing analyzed that the probability of landing is about 10%.

According to observations from the Central Meteorological Administration, the center of Typhoon Qiangbi at 2:00 pm today (19th) was at 14.3 degrees north latitude and 138.4 degrees east longitude. In the past 6 hours, it moved northwest and west at a speed of 15 kilometers per hour. The wind speed near the center of Qiangbi increased from 53 meters per second to 55 meters per second, and the wind circle of the Category 7 storm also expanded from 220 kilometers to 250 kilometers.

The Facebook weather fan "Taiwan Typhoon Forum - Weather Emergency" posted that the core of Qiangpi is solid, the eye of the typhoon is clearly visible, and it is about to enter its second peak state. The Meteorological Administration predicts that Qiangpi will continue to intensify in the next 24 hours, and the storm circle will expand to a giant platform of 300 kilometers, tying the record of this year's three typhoons, Simlek, Bawei, and White Dolphin, and even further occupying the throne of the king of winds.

In the path part, the Meteorological Administration further adjusted eastward, heading northward at a large angle on the sea near Miyako Island, Japan, and turning northward while keeping a distance between the center and Taiwan.

Jia Xingxing, director of the Taiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention Engineering Technology Consulting Company, pointed out on Facebook that the Meteorological Administration's path is the most easterly compared with official forecasts from other countries, while official forecasts from other countries are heading towards Taiwan's mainland.

Jia Xingxing said that the traditional European Medium-range Weather Forecast Center (IFS-ENS) gives a landing probability of up to 74.0%, while the landing rates of AI are between 5.9% and 8.3%. If a total of 1,151 forecasts from each model are combined After total path calculation, the probability of Qiangpi center landing in Taiwan is only 10.9%. If further analysis of possible landing locations is carried out, Jia Xingxing pointed out that the probability of landing within 30 kilometers north and south of Suao, Yilan is the highest, at 2.7%.

Jia Xingxing emphasized that this shows that although there is a specific path that is promising for landing, the overall uncertainty is still high. Please keep an eye on the latest forecast information.