Analysis by CNN's Nick Patton-Walsh
(CNN) - Ultimately, one can only wonder what Russian President Vladimir Putin says to his American counterpart Donald Trump during their phone conversations.
A week ago, a phone call between the US President and his Russian counterpart appeared to revolve around an urgent clarification on a possible outbreak of plague in Siberia.
Instead, a controversial deal to buy Russian diesel came to light, angering Ukrainians, followed by Trump demanding they get a new president.
For days, fears have been growing across Europe that this could become a reality, with the United States reducing military aid and intelligence to Ukraine, and it appears that this possibility has already begun to materialize over the past forty-eight hours.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said twice now that Kiev has not received the usual warning from its partners about Russian ballistic missile attacks.
The United States, which relies on satellites and other means as early warning mechanisms for Russian launches, usually gives the Ukrainians a few crucial minutes to head to shelters before the missiles hit; However, thirty-nine missiles struck Ukraine last night.
Trump has publicly rejected the idea that he has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, saying on Tuesday: “We help them and we share intelligence with them.”
However, this does not negate the possibility of a decrease in the volume of information shared or a delay in its immediate arrival.
With dozens of deaths from Russian strikes - as Moscow seeks to expand its massacre of civilians - this sudden stop in providing early warning warnings means many more Ukrainians could die.
However, there may be another reason for Zelensky's statements; It may be exercising some kind of pre-emptive maneuver, or bad weather conditions or technical problems were behind the absence of warnings.
The cessation of a second type of aid that appeared to affect Ukraine on Wednesday also indicates that Trump is increasing the pressure on it further.
Significant restrictions have been imposed on the speed of operation of the Starlink satellite Internet antennas - which help medium- and long-range Ukrainian drones hit their targets, and support interceptor missiles in confronting Russian suicide drones hovering above the targets.
This could amount to withdrawing an additional benefit that former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov had negotiated with SpaceX owner Elon Musk. It is important to note that this action is not comparable to Musk's decision to completely stop Starlink's operation inside Russia, a move that significantly hindered Moscow's field operations on the front lines in the summer of last year.
However, this position is a deliberate and tangible omission with operational ramifications, something Ukrainian officials believe would not have happened without guidance from the White House.
For days, European and Ukrainian officials have warned that the United States threatens to reduce intelligence and other cooperation if Kiev does not stop targeting Russian diesel facilities.
Trump stated - somewhat misleadingly - that Ukraine's targeting of Russian oil facilities is the reason behind the rise in fuel prices in the United States, ignoring the role that the Strait of Hormuz played in this global economic crisis.
The slowdown in Starlink service and the absence of warnings about ballistic missiles are likely an indication that this threat is beginning to become a reality.
Although Trump denied the validity of this matter, this in itself is not conclusive evidence that it did not happen, and Trump - since his conversation with Putin - has returned to oscillating in his positions. At one time he decides to finally allow Ukraine to manufacture its own Patriot interceptor missiles, which is a vital and important step that has long been postponed and procrastinated, and at other times he sees that the real obstacle to peace is Zelensky - the president of the country that is being invaded - who has been demanding an immediate ceasefire for more than a year.
Trump's thinking does not seem to be affected when Putin launches attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in the midst of what Trump himself called an "energy truce," or when Putin's agents plan to assassinate a political opponent in Washington, or when American business interests are subjected to sustained strikes in Ukraine.
There are moments when Trump seems determined simply to harm and undermine Ukraine, and we may never know why, or what Putin is telling him to trigger this relatively frequent shift in Trump's worldview.
The speculation may revive the familiar pattern of Trump, as an expert in concluding real estate deals, pressuring his subagents (in this case Ukraine) to close the deal or reach a price more acceptable to the “end customer” (Putin); Trump realized - correctly - that Putin is the one who holds the reins of the war, and therefore the reins of any peace agreement.
However, the timing of applying these pressures rarely coincides with the approach of concluding an agreement or is based on clear logic. Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel - according to most analyzes - will not affect fuel prices in the United States before the midterm elections, but it will most likely infuse the Kremlin’s coffers with much-needed money.
Zelensky and his European allies have witnessed this hesitation so many times that they have become accustomed to its emotional impact, and may now look calmly at the possibility that it will continue for a long time.
Perhaps further persuasion efforts by French President Emmanuel Macron with Trump, or another call from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, or a visit from Italian Prime Minister Giugia Meloni, may push the American president to change his position again. Indeed, Zelensky was in London on Wednesday, and this topic certainly came up for discussion.
However, Trump's continued sympathy for the Russian position remains one of the mysteries of our time. Critics argue that this position is unlikely to achieve its stated goal of reaching a peace agreement, conflicts with long-term security interests of the United States, and ignores Moscow's role in helping Iran, which continues to embarrass Trump and harm American military personnel.
However, the status quo carries inherent risks for both Trump and Putin.
On the one hand, Trump may create such animosity in his transatlantic relations that his allies will completely ignore him in the eighteen months following the midterm elections, content to wait for him to go.
This could further constrain Trump's ability when dealing with an intractable and expanding conflict in the Middle East.
There are risks facing Putin as well.
That Europe and Ukraine are forced to move forward without the United States, build resilience, innovate new approaches, and pump huge sums of money into the defense sector does not put the Kremlin in a dominant position; The more Moscow increases its hostility towards Europe, the more the latter will arm itself, and the greater - in the long term - the threat that European armies pose to Russia.
Ukraine demonstrated exceptional capabilities and innovations; This path is unlikely to stop, but is likely to reshape the landscape of warfare in the coming years.
Likewise, Russia has a tremendous capacity to withstand shock and suffering, but its breaking point is rarely apparent, and often emerges suddenly and alarmingly from deep within and without warning, as when the disillusioned leader of Russia's notorious Wagner forces launched a short-lived rebellion in 2023.
In the short term, Ukraine alone bears the risks of this current strategy. Its children and mothers die as a result of night raids, its cities live without sleep, while the military aid allocated to it is hostage to a strange “close friendship” relationship between two strong men.
