On Friday, Ethiopia and Eritrea exchanged accusations of waging an “aggressive war,” at a time when the escalating conflict between the Ethiopian army and Tigray rebels threatens to turn into a regional war. Addis Abab accuses Asmara of supporting rebels in the region located north of Ethiopia, and tensions reached their peak last week when the two neighbors cut diplomatic relations.
Ethiopia said, in a letter to members of the UN Security Council on Friday, that Eritrea was committing “blatant aggression,” and that it was forced to “legitimate self-defense,” according to what was reported by Agence France-Presse. In the letter to the French mission to the United Nations, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gideon Timotheus denounced the presence of Eritrean forces at a depth of between 30 and 60 kilometers inside Tigray, considering it “a blatant act of aggression that justifies Ethiopia’s exercise of its inherent right to legitimate self-defense.”
Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel did not delay in responding, and said on the “X” platform that his country is facing an “unjustified aggressive war” launched by Ethiopia. Asmara denies most of the Ethiopian accusations.
Eritrea had fought alongside Ethiopia against the Tigray People's Liberation Front during the civil war that lasted from 2020 to 2022, but relations quickly deteriorated amid Addis Ababa's accusation that Asmara supported the Tigray Liberation Front, against the backdrop of Eritrea's fears that Ethiopia was planning to invade its territory to obtain direct access to the Red Sea.
Mutual escalation
The Ethiopian Foreign Minister, who spoke Thursday about the incursion of Eritrean forces up to 60 kilometers into the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia, discussed with Amina Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, the latest developments, and briefed her on what he described as “Eritrean aggression” against his country, according to a Foreign Ministry statement Thursday. On Friday, Agence France-Presse quoted a security source who requested anonymity as saying that Eritrea “deployed between 5,000 and 8,000 soldiers in Tigray.”
Last week, the Ethiopian army forced the Tigray People's Liberation Front rebels to retreat and took control of their capital, Mekele, while Ethiopian Airlines announced the resumption of its flights to the city starting October 11, according to Agence France-Presse. Data also indicate that the federal forces forced the Eritrean forces to retreat with intense drone strikes.
The agency quoted witnesses as saying that the rebels lost control of two other cities in Tigray, Shire and Adigrat. Eritrean forces were seen in Adigrat in recent days before being targeted by Ethiopian drone strikes, according to a party monitoring the conflict and witnesses. The rebels were retreating towards Sheraro, a town close to the Eritrean border, according to a Tigray official who belongs to a breakaway faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
In this regard, Chetil Tronvoll, an expert on regional affairs at Oslo New University College in Norway, told Agence France-Presse that the front is “eroding,” in light of the low morale of its fighters and their dissatisfaction with their leaders. He added: “Many defect and return to their villages.” He expressed his fear that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed “will not stop at the border,” but will continue the attack inside Eritrea.
Battles had renewed in northern Ethiopia, between the federal army and the forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which had effectively ruled the region since April, on September 23. This raised fears of the return of the devastating civil war that the country witnessed between 2020 and 2022, and of the expansion of the scope of the conflict regionally.
Ethiopia, a country that does not have a sea port, has repeatedly stressed its right to direct access to the sea, which Eritrea considers a threat to invade and seize the port of Assab. In this regard, the Eritrean Minister of Information pointed out the need to “also look at the hysterical obsession with the Red Sea in light of previous intentions to launch a war of invasion against Eritrea.”
Ethiopia options
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Ethiopian parliamentarian Mohamed Nour Ahmed reviewed his country’s options in confronting this escalation. He said, “Ethiopia’s request for the withdrawal of Eritrean forces is consistent with international law and international norms. This refers to the first Addis Ababa route; It is Ethiopia’s patience, respect for its neighbourhood, and giving priority to neighboring countries and the option of peace.”
As for the second Ethiopian option, it would be to “respond to the aggression,” according to Ahmed, who explained: “If the red lines are crossed and the Eritrean forces do not immediately leave the territory of Ethiopia, then Ethiopia will have the right to respond and defend itself.”
The Ethiopian MP warned that “Eritrea is playing with fire and will soon pay the price for this aggression, especially since the Ethiopian army is strong and capable of protecting the entire country’s territory, east, west, north and south. It is not an army to be played with.”
The Ethiopian representative indicated these two paths by adding Addis Ababa to raise the issue to the Security Council “waiting for a peaceful solution.” “This is what we hope for,” he said. Otherwise, Ethiopia will not wait idly by, and we will respond to them sooner or later.” He expected that if Addis Ababa responded, the unrest in the Horn of Africa would expand.
The danger of an approaching confrontation
International bodies expressed mounting concern about the outbreak of confrontations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The US Embassy in Ethiopia issued a security warning, on Wednesday, to its country’s citizens about “the possibility of long-range attacks targeting Ethiopian military installations on several occasions during the month of October,” calling on them not to travel to the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions, days after an American call on Addis Ababa and Asmara to reduce the escalation.
Amid this escalation, Abdel Shakur Abdel Samad, an Ethiopian analyst in African affairs, said in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that the priority of Ethiopian action will be to protect and preserve national sovereignty and deter any external aggression, whether personally or by proxy.
Abdul Shakur expects that Eritrea will continue to ignore any response to leaving Ethiopia “as an escape from internal political, economic and social entitlements and the requirements of sustainable development called for by the Eritrean people,” expecting the clash to be closer between the forces of the two countries.
On the other hand, an official Eritrean source denied, on Wednesday, the presence of his country’s forces in the Tigray region, but in his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, he did not rule out a clash with Ethiopia if it touched his country’s borders. The source, who preferred to remain anonymous, said: “There are no Eritrean forces in Tigray, but friction and clashes are possible. If the Eritrean borders are violated, this is normal.”
