Doubts surround the Florida-Lebanese-Israeli meeting

The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that an Israeli attack took place on Friday in the northeast of the country, near the Syrian border, wounding six people, specifically in an area that has remained largely untouched by similar incidents since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

The ministry said, “The Israeli attack in the vicinity of the town of Hosh al-Sayyid Ali in the Hermel district resulted in 6 wounded, including 5 of Syrian nationality, including two women, in addition to a Lebanese wounded,” according to what was reported by Agence France-Presse.

The official National News Agency reported that “an enemy military drone targeted a car in Hosh al-Sayyid Ali.”

Lebanon entered the war on March 2 after Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel, which it said were in response to the killing of Iranian guide Ali Khamenei in the first American and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Israel responded with an intense campaign of raids and a ground incursion by its forces, which occupied dozens of towns and villages in southern Lebanon, and with large-scale bombing operations.

The pace of violence declined after the United States and Iran concluded a memorandum of understanding in June, and the Lebanese and Israeli governments signed, under American sponsorship, a framework agreement that stipulated the disarmament of Hezbollah, the gradual withdrawal of the Hebrew state from the lands it occupies in southern Lebanon, and the deployment of the Lebanese army, starting from “experimental” areas.

On Thursday, the Israeli army announced that an officer was killed and three soldiers were slightly injured in southern Lebanon.

The Palestinians are awaiting an official announcement from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to postpone the elections that were scheduled for next November 28, after the Fatah movement agreed with the Palestinian factions to do so, in a step that was not surprising.

An informed Palestinian source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the postponement of the elections was expected from the first moment the Palestinian President issued the decree. He added: “The decree came in response to external requests and pressures for the renewal of legitimacy and reform. No one here was ready for that... Neither Fatah nor Hamas nor the factions were ready for the elections. Despite everyone announcing that they were holding these elections, everyone pushed for their postponement... Until now, no major faction has formed its list or submitted it to the Elections Commission.”

According to the source, the Executive Committee of the PLO, which meets on Saturday, is supposed to submit a recommendation to President Abbas to postpone the elections in order to give the national dialogue a chance, and because the political and security conditions are complex and not prepared at this time.

It is not clear whether Abbas will set a new date, or announce that it will take place during the last quarter of next year, as many sources estimate.

Palestinian Vice President Hussein Al-Sheikh informed France that the elections had already been postponed for several months, due to the deteriorating conditions in the Palestinian territories, according to a letter seen by Reuters.

A letter from the Sheikh to the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, yesterday (Thursday), stated that the evaluation concluded that the political, security and economic conditions that were expected to be available to hold the legislative elections on the scheduled date had not been achieved.

The letter added that holding elections under the current circumstances faces fundamental obstacles that affect the comprehensiveness of the electoral process, the freedom to participate in it, and its integrity.

Palestinian legislative or presidential elections have not been held since 2005 and 2006, when the last elections of this kind were held, before Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip and expelled forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas from it.

Abbas had announced that the legislative elections would be held next November, as part of a series of huge reforms that he launched in the Palestinian Authority after October 7, 2023, which included restructuring the Central Elections Committee, creating the position of Vice Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Liberation Organization and Vice President of the State of Palestine, forming a committee to draft a temporary constitution for the transitional phase from the “authority” to the “state,” appointing new heads for almost all the leaders of the security services, and referring hundreds of officers with the rank of brigadier general to retirement by presidential decree. Local elections in the West Bank and Gaza, then elections for the leadership of the Fatah movement.

But despite all these reforms, the Palestinians have doubts about holding presidential and legislative elections.

The Sheikh's message came to remove doubt with certainty, actually confirming the postponement of the elections.

The letter said that Palestinian officials expected conditions to improve through the implementation of US President Donald Trump's peace initiative and the implementation of a UN Security Council resolution, including the deployment of international forces and Palestinian police in the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of the Hamas movement, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

She added that the Palestinian side was also expecting American action to prevent further annexation of Palestinian lands in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, limit settler violence, and release Palestinian funds held by Israel, amounting to about 7 billion dollars.

The letter stated: “But these steps, understandings and promises were not fulfilled, and the situation deteriorated throughout the Palestinian territories,” referring to security problems in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Based on this assessment, Palestinian officials recommended to President Abbas to adjust the date of the elections and postpone them for several months, while continuing the dialogue with the aim of creating the necessary internal conditions for their holding, according to the letter.

“Fatah” and factional reasons

In addition to the reasons given by the Sheikh, other sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the lack of agreement within Fatah was a major reason for moving towards postponing the elections.

The sources added that there was no clear agreement with senior leader Marwan Barghouti, who launched an initiative before the elections in order to “unite the Fatah movement with all its blocs and movements,” and there were fears that he might push towards forming a special list.

Barghouti intends to run for the presidency and not for the legislative seat, but his support for a list other than the official “Fatah” list would confuse the cards.

Fatah was also facing a challenge related to the Reform Movement led by the movement’s former official, Muhammad Dahlan, who had agreed with Hamas to form a single list to run in the elections that included other factions. It was not clear whether he could have joined Barghouti, later, if he had formed his own list.

In addition, there were angry officials in Fatah who actually began forming special lists.

Fatah wants to go with one list, and this requires more time and internal consultations.

The attempt to reconcile with the Dahlan movement earlier also failed, despite regional attempts to solve the problem of this movement by returning to Fatah or forming a new political party in the Palestinian arena.

In addition to Fatah, Hamas had not decided its decision completely, and it needed a broad and strong alliance after it pledged not to run in the elections on its own behalf or through its well-known leaders and members.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad also supported postponing the elections. Above all, the Popular Front demanded that it be postponed and that the national dialogue be given a chance.

The source said: “Everyone was pushing for postponement. “The issue is not related to the authority and Fatah only.”

The Palestinians do not have the right to decide on the elections alone, but Israel has the final say in this matter.

The Israeli government refused to allow the Palestinian Central Elections Commission to enter the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem to follow up on preparations for the elections.

An official Palestinian source told the official Wafa news agency on Tuesday that the Israeli government refused to allow the committee to enter the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, in a move that created a direct obstacle to holding elections that include the entire Palestinian territories.