In the first half of the year, the prices of aluminum, copper, tin, tantalum, indium and other metals rose sharply——
Why has “computing power metal” risen so sharply?
In the first half of this year, driven by the acceleration of the construction of global artificial intelligence computing power infrastructure, demand for aluminum, copper, tin, tantalum, indium and other related non-ferrous metals has been concentrated, and prices have risen significantly. The market calls it "computing power metals". Data shows that the growth rates of the three core minor metals of tin, tantalum, and indium exceeded 40%, 158%, and 60% respectively in the first half of the year. Prices of bulk commodities such as aluminum and copper also continue to run at high levels.
Why have these metals, which usually receive little attention, suddenly become so popular? What impact will the price increase of “computing power metal” bring?
What is “computing power metal”?
Chen Xuesen, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that "computing power metal" is not a traditional classification of disciplines, but a collective market name formed by industry and capital markets with the development of the AI computing power industry chain. It specifically refers to key materials that support the construction of intelligent computing centers, AI servers, high-speed optical modules, advanced semiconductor packaging, and liquid cooling systems. It is irreplaceable in emerging industries involving electricity, electronics, and new energy, and has become the material cornerstone of the computing power industry.
The industry usually divides them into two broad categories. The first type is "bulk computing metal" that supports computing infrastructure, represented by copper and aluminum, which are responsible for conduction, heat dissipation and structural support. The other category is "rare and small metals with computing power", including tin, tantalum, indium, germanium, gallium, molybdenum, etc. Although the amount is small, they are indispensable key materials in advanced packaging, optical communications, and semiconductor manufacturing.
Let’s look at bulk computing metals first. Copper and aluminum form the “skeleton” of the computing network. Copper is the core consumable of computing power infrastructure. From copper cable interconnection to PCB (printed circuit board) substrate, from cooling module to power supply system, copper consumption increases with each level of computing power. An ordinary server uses only a few kilograms of copper, while a high-performance server dedicated to training AI uses up to 15 to 30 kilograms of copper, which is 3 to 6 times the former. Aluminum forms the "blood vessels" of the liquid cooling system. When AI chip power consumption soars from 200 watts to more than 1,000 watts, traditional air cooling reaches its physical limit, and liquid cooling changes from "optional" to "standard." A single server liquid cooling system consumes 20 to 30 kilograms of aluminum.
Let’s look at the rare metal with small computing power. Although the amount of these metals used in a single machine is small, they play the role of "industrial vitamins". Without them, the entire computing system cannot operate. Because of its good conductivity, low melting point, and strong welding stability, tin has become an indispensable solder for advanced packaging of high-bandwidth memory and core chips. Tantalum is the core material of tantalum capacitors, which are used for server power filtering and signal coupling. Indium, germanium, and gallium are widely used in optical communications and power management modules. Indium phosphide substrate is the core material of high-speed optical modules, and gallium nitride is the key substrate of AI server power chips, ensuring high-speed data transmission and stable power supply.
"In the past, the nonferrous metals industry was highly dependent on investment in real estate and infrastructure. Now emerging industries such as computing power and new energy are becoming new demand engines, which reflects that my country's economic structural adjustment is being transmitted from the macro level to specific industries." Xu Jianwei, director of the Industrial Office of the National Development and Reform Commission's Institute of Industrial Economics and Technical Economics, believes that the "surge" in computing power has fueled nonferrous metals. In essence, emerging industries have created new rigid needs, transforming traditional metals from basic industrial raw materials into core materials for the digital economy.
"Traditional industries and emerging industries are not a substitute relationship, but more of a relationship of empowerment and integration." Xu Jianwei said, "An important feature of emerging pillar industries is empowerment, strong correlation, wide penetration, and the ability to widely affect the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The popularity of 'computing power metal' exactly illustrates this point. It can be said that emerging industries have opened up new application scenarios and growth space for traditional industries, while traditional industries provide indispensable material support for emerging industries."
Tight supply, hot demand
Looking at the overall profitability of China's nonferrous metals industry in the first half of this year, Chen Xuesen said that the profitability of the nonferrous metals industry chain in the first half of the year showed a differentiated pattern of "smelting leading, mining following, and processing weak." The contribution rates of mining, smelting, and processing to industry profit growth were 23.6%, 65.5%, and 11.0% respectively, and revenue profit margins were 40.6%, 8.9%, and 2.0%, respectively, increasing by 10.3, 3.4, and 0.7 percentage points year-on-year respectively. "In terms of categories, the total profit of the aluminum industry increased by 114.8% year-on-year, and the profit growth contribution rate reached 43.5%. Among them, the new profits from aluminum smelting accounted for 37.1% of the industry's increase, and the pull rate reached 34.9%, firmly ranking as the first pillar of the industry's profit growth." Chen Xuesen said.
What’s the reason behind the surge in “computing power metal”? Duan Shaofu, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that this is the result of the resonance of rigid supply constraints and the expansion of demand in emerging industries.
From the demand side, emerging industries have risen rapidly and become the core support for prices——
Artificial intelligence servers, high-speed optical modules, advanced packaging and other links form irreplaceable physical consumption of tin, tantalum and indium. Global cloud manufacturers' artificial intelligence capital expenditures continue to expand. The power battery and energy storage industry continues to drive the consumption of lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and other varieties. New energy vehicles and power grid upgrades have also provided stable demand for bulk metals such as aluminum and copper.
"In addition, geopolitical conflicts disrupted the global supply chain, pushing up the prices of electrolytic aluminum and smelting by-product sulfuric acid in stages, resulting in short-term profit increases. Coupled with the weak metal prices and low profit base in the first half of last year, this further amplified the year-on-year growth in this period." Chen Xuesen said.
From the supply side, constraints continue to escalate, and resource scarcity premiums continue to rise——
Chen Xuesen pointed out that the output of some domestic key mineral products has declined instead of rising due to various factors. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling policy remains rigid, and supply expectations are clear and stable. Many countries have included relevant varieties into key mineral management, and mine investment and export controls have become stricter, further pushing up resource prices.
Specifically, the supply-side disturbance of tin is particularly prominent. Duan Shaofu analyzed, "The full resumption of tin production in Myanmar's Wa State has repeatedly been lower than expected, and the impact of the rainy season has hindered mining; Indonesia's tin export policy approval has become stricter, and the actual arrival volume continues to be lower than expected; Congo (DRC) has frequently blocked tin supply due to geopolitical and epidemic disturbances." He further explained that under the tight balance between supply and demand, the metal price center continues to move upward.
From a national level, in June this year, the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations") were implemented. The regulations are complementary to the newly revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" and will strategically The number of minerals has expanded from the original planned 24 to 36. Among them, key minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium have been officially included in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. The catalog also covers non-ferrous metals such as molybdenum, indium, and copper. The promulgation of the Mineral Resources Law and the Regulations have clearly stipulated the protection of strategic mineral resources, and the supply ceiling is expected to be further strengthened.
"It is generally judged in the industry that the short-term supply and demand pattern has not fundamentally changed, and there is support for the price center." Duan Shaofu said, "However, at the current macro level, the Fed's policy signals and the trend of the US dollar continue to pose valuation pressure, there are also uncertainties in the geopolitical situation, market sentiment is highly sensitive, and the risk of market fluctuations cannot be ignored."
Treat fluctuations rationally
After the price increase of "computing power metal", who benefits and who is under pressure?
Upstream mining companies were the first to benefit. China Molybdenum has reserves of three core computing power metals: copper, cobalt and molybdenum. In the first half of 2026, it achieved operating income of 135.320 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.78%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.27%. Yunnan Germanium Industry expects net profit attributable to parent companies to be 55 million yuan to 80 million yuan in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 148.31% to 261.18%. The total profit of China Nonferrous Metals Group in the first half of the year increased by 32.1% year-on-year. Its CNMC Daye Tonglushan Mine and Tongshankou Mine accelerated the intelligent transformation. The drainage, ventilation, and lifting systems achieved remote centralized control, and unmanned electric locomotives entered normal operation.
However, midstream and downstream companies are under obvious pressure. While upstream mining companies enjoy price dividends, midstream and downstream packaging and testing, PCB and optical module manufacturers face the dilemma of rising raw material costs. Indium phosphide substrate is an indispensable material for optical module companies. The price of 6-inch high-end products has increased from 8,000 yuan/piece to 18,000-28,000 yuan/piece, an increase of more than 250%. The rise in tin prices has caused large-scale cost inversions for downstream solder companies, and the purchasing side has turned to wait-and-see.
Faced with rising prices and supply pressure, Duan Shaofu believes that adjustments need to be made at three levels.
The first is to improve product quality adaptability. There is a mismatch between the high purity and customization requirements of the computing power industry chain for materials and the traditional standardized supply. Enterprises should strive to improve product quality and consistency, make products more refined and in-depth under production capacity constraints, better meet the high-quality demand for materials in high-end manufacturing, and enhance market competitiveness with differentiated supply.
The second is to strengthen the connection between upstream and downstream supply and demand. The rising prices of upstream raw materials have put cost pressure on midstream and downstream users, and some application terminals have begun to seek alternative materials or adjust inventory. Upstream and downstream should also establish a closer supply and demand docking mechanism.
The third is to diversify resource guarantee channels. Aluminum, tin and other products related to computing power are highly dependent on foreign sources for upstream mineral resources, and frequent disturbances in overseas supply have become the new normal. Enterprises should form portfolio arrangements in overseas equity mines, recycling, long-term procurement, etc., to enhance the resilience of the supply chain.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Chen Xuesen believes that the core observation variables in the future are the pace of emerging industry demand, the progress of global mineral supply release, and the overall environment of the commodity market. All parties need to view fluctuations rationally and closely track the dynamics of the industry chain.
Reporter Kong Dechen "People's Daily Overseas Edition" (September 15, 2026, Page 11)
