
The Ukrainian army regained 125 square kilometers of land, and the Russian army's goal of capturing Slovyansk and Kramotosk may be postponed to next year
AI-generated summary
Russia has listed the complete occupation of Donetsk Oblast as a prerequisite for a ceasefire, but the progress of military goals has been delayed many times.
Ukraine recently launched "Operation Vivaldi" in Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, disrupting the Russian army's attempt to take over the entire region. Sources in the Russian Defense Ministry revealed that Moscow privately believes that it will not be able to capture two key cities until next year at the earliest.
Bloomberg reported on the 3rd that according to Ukrainian President Zelensky when he inspected the troops outside the town of Liman on September 30, this partial counterattack of "Operation Vivaldi", which was first exposed on September 15, has helped Ukraine recover 125 square kilometers of land; the US military think tank "Institute of War" (ISW) also confirmed this figure.
Although the scale of the reconquest was small, it prevented the Russian army from advancing on two "fortress cities": Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which were the last major cities in the area still under Ukrainian control. Sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry revealed that Russian officials now privately believe that they will not be able to capture these two key cities until next year at the earliest.
Russia has made Ukraine hand over the entire territory of Donetsk as one of the prerequisites for a ceasefire. Putin has repeatedly declared that it is only a matter of time before the Russian army completely occupies the area, but the time to complete the goal has been repeatedly delayed.
In order to break through the Russian defenses in the Lyman area near Slovyansk, the Ukrainian army converted Soviet-era armored personnel carriers into unmanned suicide armored vehicles to destroy well-defended positions; the newly dug communication tunnels also allow the troops to maintain contact even when the Starlink satellite network signal is interrupted. In addition, the Ukrainian army's intensive drone attacks also forced the Russian army to withdraw fuel stocks and storage facilities into Russia.
Uzbek military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi pointed out that if the Russian army is unable to attack the city head-on, it will often form a pincer-shaped offensive to surround it from both wings. However, Operation Vivaldi "cut off the pincer on one side, rendering this Russian tactic ineffective" and ensuring the current security of Slovyansk and Kramotosk.
For Kiev, the counterattack also has diplomatic implications. Bloomberg pointed out that as U.S. President Trump promotes ceasefire negotiations, Operation Vivaldi allows Ukraine to show supporting countries that they are still capable of taking the initiative on the battlefield, which can increase Kyiv’s bargaining chips in future negotiations.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast will continue until next year
Likely · Within months

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