
市場預期聯準會將進行3年來首次升息,以抑制持續升高的消費物價
美國8月核心通膨月增0.3%高於預期,聯準會幾乎篤定將於16日政策會議啟動3年來首次升息。經濟學家認為單次升息不足以抑制通膨,後續恐將持續升息,此舉預計將引發川普總統不滿。
AI-generated summary
聯準會今年連續5個政策會議維持利率不變。美國8月核心通膨月增0.3%,高於預期。
在美國最新通膨報告顯示,8月消費物價持續升高後,聯準會(Fed)幾乎篤定16日政策會議將進行3年來首次升息,安侯建業(KPMG)首席經濟學家斯旺克(Diane Swonk)說,該報告鞏固升息趨勢,「現在的問題不在於是否升息,而是必須升息幾次才能抑制通膨」。
美國勞工統計局週五公佈,8月排除食品與能源價格的核心通膨月增0.3%,高於預期0.1個百分點。通膨洞察(Inflation Insights)創辦人夏利夫(Omair Sharif)說,「對於聯準會,是採取行動,不然閉嘴(put up or shut up)的時候了」!
聯準會主席華許上月底在傑克森霍爾央行年會演說指出,如果未能確定通膨走勢朝2%目標發展,決策者「將有工作要做」。夏利夫說,華許不能發表如此的演說,卻沒有在下次政策會議上支持升息。
聯準會今年連續5個政策會議做出維持利率不變的決定。前聯準會副主席、現為資產管理巨頭品浩(Pimco)全球經濟顧問克拉里達(Richard Clarida)指出,如今,單憑升息1碼(0.25個百分點),對抑制通膨不會有太大成效,因此「一旦啟動升息,後續必然還會升息;絕不會一次就收手」。
前聯準會高級顧問,現為Piper Sandler策略師劉易斯( Kurt Lewis)也說,「一旦決定收緊政策,就會將利率提升至足夠水準,直至實質改變限制水準為止」。他補充,升息或維持利率不變「向來是艱難決定,週五的通膨報告正是壓垮駱駝的稻草」。
市場押注聯準會本月升息機率達近90%,12月底前高度可能再升息1次,明年6月前,至少升息3次。
升息之舉必然激怒總統川普,他任命華許接替鮑爾,出任聯準會主席,一再喊話降息,近日他威脅聯準會若不降息,將切斷與部份國家的貿易互動,這些國家對美國都有可觀的貿易順差。
白宮國家經濟委員會主席哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)週五表示,「我預期,如果聯準會採取重大舉措,總統一定會表示意見」。如果川普真的指責華許,他最終批評的可能不僅是升息1次。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
聯準會將於16日政策會議進行升息
Very likely · Within days
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